Common ratio effects should be ruled out if subjects’ preferences satisfy compound independence, reduction of compound lotteries, and coalescing. In other words, at least one of these axioms should be violated in order to generate a common ratio effect. Relying on a simple experiment, we investigate which failure of these axioms is concomitant with the empirical observation of common ratio effects. We observe that compound independence and reduction of compound lotteries hold, whereas coalescing is systematically violated. This result provides support (...) for theories which explain the common ratio effect by violations of coalescing instead of violations of compound independence. (shrink)

The standard rationality hypothesis implies that behaviour can be represented as the maximization of a suitably restricted utility function. This hypothesis lies at the heart of a large body of recent work in economics, of course, but also in political science, ethics, and other major branches of social sciences. Though the utility maximization hypothesis is venerable, it remains an area of active research. Moreover, some fundamental conceptual problems remain unresolved, or at best have resolutions that are too recent to have (...) achieved widespread understanding among social scientists. The main purpose of the Handbook of Utility Theory is to make recent developments in the area more accessible. The editors selected a number of specific topics, and invited contributions from researchers whose work had come to their attention. Therefore, the list of topics and contributions is largely the editors' responsibility. Each contributor's chapter has been refereed, and revised according to the referees' remarks. This is the first volume of a two volume set, with the second volume focusing on extensions of utility theory. (shrink)

Die vorliegenden Untersuchungen zu Aristoteles' Naturphilosophie interpretieren Haupttexte aus seinen Schriften Physik, Über Entstehen und Vergehen, Über die Entstehung der Lebewesen, Über die Seele. Sie führen zu einigen wichtigen Einsichten über die Natur, die Materie, die Zeit, die Bewegungs- und Zweckursache u.a. und erheben ihre aktuelle Bedeutung für die gegenwärtigen interdisziplinären Diskussionen zwischen Naturphilosophie, Physik, Biologie, Psychologie und Anthropologie.

Sein und Bewußtsein, zwei Kernbegriffe der modernen Bewußtseinsphilosophien, vor allem seit Kant, werden von diesen immer im Gegensatz zur traditionellen Metaphysik bestimmt, obwohl sie ihr der Sache nach entstammen. Die vorliegende Untersuchung beabsichtigt, in einer Gegenüberstellung von Aristoteles und Kant neben dem Verschiedenen auch das Gemeinsame zwischen den traditionellen und den modernen Auffassungen der beiden Begriffe herauszustellen und zu erörtern. Im Ergebnis finden sich Gesichtspunkte, wonach sich die beiden Auffassungen gwissermaßen ergänzen könnten: Die modernen gehen mit dem Bewußtsein auf eine (...) subjektive Erkenntnisbedingung, die traditionellen mit dem Sein der Dinge auf eine objektive reale Erkenntnisvoraussetzung. Die Untersuchung berücksichtigt auch nachkantianische Bewußtseinstheorien (Reinhold, Brentano, Husserl) sowie gegenwärtige Spezialliteratur, in der Absicht, etwas zur Klärung der beiden Begriffe Sein und Bewußtsein beizutragen: Sie erweisen sich als unlösbar aufeinander bezogen. (shrink)

We model scientific theories as Bayesian networks. Nodes carry credences and function as abstract representations of propositions within the structure. Directed links carry conditional probabilities and represent connections between those propositions. Updating is Bayesian across the network as a whole. The impact of evidence at one point within a scientific theory can have a very different impact on the network than does evidence of the same strength at a different point. A Bayesian model allows us to envisage and analyze the (...) differential impact of evidence and credence change at different points within a single network and across different theoretical structures. (shrink)

How should you decide what to do when you’re uncertain about basic normative principles? A natural suggestion is to follow some "second-order:" norm: e.g., obey the most probable norm or maximize expected choiceworthiness. But what if you’re uncertain about second-order norms too—must you then invoke some third-order norm? If so, any norm-guided response to normative uncertainty appears doomed to a vicious regress. This paper aims to rescue second-order norms from the threat of regress. I first elaborate and defend the claim (...) some philosophers have made that the regress problem forces us to accept normative externalism, the view that at least one norm is incumbent on all agents regardless of their normative beliefs. But, I then argue, we need not accept externalism about first-order norms, thus closing off any question of how agents should respond to normative uncertainty. Rather, we can head off the threat of regress by ascribing external force to a single second-order norm: the enkratic principle. (shrink)

Les disciplines historiques, littéraires et philosophiques font un emploi abondant des catégories historiographiques. Parmi celles-ci, les termes en ismes sont très fréquents pour référer à une doctrine, un courant artistique, une idéologie ou des événements spécifiques. On fait cependant remarquer que ces désignations posent de nombreux problèmes d’interprétation. En particulier, que l’origine exacte d’une catégorie est souvent méconnue et que sa signification est plus équivoque qu’on ne le croit habituellement. La formation d’un terme en isme s’explique souvent dans un contexte (...) polémique et sert à condamner ou critiquer plutôt qu’à comprendre une pensée, un mouvement ou des faits historiques. Les catégories d’athéisme, de classicisme ou de féminisme en sont de bons exemples. Le présent volume vise à contribuer à l’étude critique des catégories historiographiques et des notions en isme en s’attardant à l’époque moderne (XVI e XVIII e siècles). Il s’agit d’un moment clef de l’histoire européenne pendant laquelle nombre de ces notions apparaissent ou pour laquelle l’historiographie en a fait un emploi abondant. Les chapitres en examinent la valeur théorique par rapport à une origine ou des usages, et déterminent de quelles manières elles contribuent à l’interprétation de l’histoire, de la littérature ou de la philosophie, de la Renaissance jusqu’à la Révolution française. (shrink)

Our scientific theories, like our cognitive structures in general, consist of propositions linked by evidential, explanatory, probabilistic, and logical connections. Those theoretical webs ‘impinge on the world at their edges,’ subject to a continuing barrage of incoming evidence. Our credences in the various elements of those structures change in response to that continuing barrage of evidence, as do the perceived connections between them. Here we model scientific theories as Bayesian nets, with credences at nodes and conditional links between them modelled (...) as conditional probabilities. We update those networks, in terms of both credences at nodes and conditional probabilities at links, through a temporal barrage of random incoming evidence. Robust patterns of punctuated equilibrium, suggestive of ‘normal science’ alternating with ‘paradigm shifts,’ emerge prominently in that change dynamics. The suggestion is that at least some of the phenomena at the core of the Kuhnian tradition are predictable in the typical dynamics of scientific theory change captured as Bayesian nets under even a random evidence barrage. (shrink)

Singularites: le mot ne se dit pas tant des individus que des relations qui les lient contingentement au monde. Car l'harmonie universelle n'est pas si performante que le laisse entendre son auteur, sur des questions fondamentales pour la coherence du Systeme - en particulier celle du mal, reprise au siecle d'apres dans un leibnitianisme reste incompris. On concluerait a l'echec, si la loi d'harmonie n'etait capable d'engendrer des relations qui, en ecart a son fonctionnement ordinaire, la modulent diversement, l'inflechissent, l'enrichissent, (...) pour produire localement des effets de cohesion inesperes aux lieux memes ou elle restait inoperante. Mais, pour reperer ces endroits singuliers, il faut plonger dans le labyrinthe sous-jacent au reseau: prendre en compte le multiple dans ses varietes, les personnages qui tissent le monde choisi et racontent son histoire, les choses humaines en ce qu'elles ont d'irreductibilite au rationalisme - et qui pourtant sont, par la suffisance des raisons, le comble de la rationalite. Intervient alors, pour la connaissance, un autre modele que la demonstration more geometrico, embleme ordinaire de l'Age classique: l'Ars rationis des juristes, arpenteurs de la contingence et mathematiciens du plausible, maitres d'une technique d'argumentation ou la philosophie apprend que les sciences humaines peuvent aussi atteindre a la plus grande certitude. (shrink)

What kind of animals are human beings? And how do our visions of the human shape our theories of social action and institutions? In Moral, Believing Animals>, Christian Smith advances a creative theory of human persons and culture that offers innovative, challenging answers to these and other fundamental questions in sociological, cultural, and religious theory. Smith suggests that human beings have a peculiar set of capacities and proclivities that distinguishes them significantly from other animals on this planet. Despite the (...) vast differences in humanity between cultures and across history, no matter how differently people narrate their lives and histories, there remains an underlying structure of human personhood that helps to order human culture, history, and narration. Drawing on important recent insights in moral philosophy, epistemology, and narrative studies, Smith argues that humans are animals who have an inescapable moral and spiritual dimension. They cannot avoid a fundamental moral orientation in life and this, says Smith, has profound consequences for how sociology must study human beings. (shrink)

Decision-making under normative uncertainty requires an agent to aggregate the assessments of options given by rival normative theories into a single assessment that tells her what to do in light of her uncertainty. But what if the assessments of rival theories differ not just in their content but in their structure -- e.g., some are merely ordinal while others are cardinal? This paper describes and evaluates three general approaches to this "problem of structural diversity": structural enrichment, structural depletion, and multi-stage (...) aggregation. All three approaches have notable drawbacks, but I tentatively defend multi-stage aggregation as least bad of the three. (shrink)

Digital technologies are rapidly transforming economies and societies. Scholars have approached this rise of digital capitalism from various angles. However, relatively little attention has been paid to digital capitalism’s cultural underpinnings and the beliefs of those who develop most digital technologies. In this paper, we argue that a solutionist order of worth – in which value derives from solving social problems through technology – has become central to an emerging spirit of digital capitalism. We use supervised learning to trace the (...) relative importance of different orders of worth in three novel text corpora. We find that solutionism is indeed central to the normative beliefs of digital elites and the broader digital milieu, but not to capitalist discourse at large. We illustrate the importance of these findings by discussing how the spirit of digital capitalism motivates, legitimates, and orients the actions of digital capitalists. (shrink)

The perception of meaningful patterns in random arrangements and unrelated events takes place in our everyday lives, coined apophenia, synchronicity, or the experience of meaningful coincidences. However, we do not know yet what predicts this phenomenon. To investigate this, we re-analyzed a combined data set of two daily diary studies with a total of N = 169 participants (mean age 29.95 years; 54 men). We investigated if positive or negative affect (PA, NA) predicts the number of meaningful coincidences on the (...) following day (or vice versa). By means of a cross-lagged multilevel modelling approach (Bayesian estimation) we evaluated with which of two theoretical assumptions the data are more in line. First, if meaningful coincidences are facilitated by a broader and more flexible thinking style, PA should positively predict meaningful coincidences at the following day. However, if the experience of meaningful coincidences signifies a strategy to cope with negative feeling states, NA should predict the experience of meaningful coincidences during the following day. In favour of a more flexible thinking style, we found that PA predicted the number of perceived coincidences the following day. We did not find any effect for NA, and therefore, no evidence arguing for the coping mechanism hypothesis of meaningful coincidences. (shrink)

The principle that rational agents should maximize expected utility or choiceworthiness is intuitively plausible in many ordinary cases of decision-making under uncertainty. But it is less plausible in cases of extreme, low-probability risk (like Pascal's Mugging), and intolerably paradoxical in cases like the St. Petersburg and Pasadena games. In this paper I show that, under certain conditions, stochastic dominance reasoning can capture most of the plausible implications of expectational reasoning while avoiding most of its pitfalls. Specifically, given sufficient background uncertainty (...) about the choiceworthiness of one's options, many expectation-maximizing gambles that do not stochastically dominate their alternatives "in a vacuum" become stochastically dominant in virtue of that background uncertainty. But, even under these conditions, stochastic dominance will not require agents to accept options whose expectational superiority depends on sufficiently small probabilities of extreme payoffs. The sort of background uncertainty on which these results depend looks unavoidable for any agent who measures the choiceworthiness of her options in part by the total amount of value in the resulting world. At least for such agents, then, stochastic dominance offers a plausible general principle of choice under uncertainty that can explain more of the apparent rational constraints on such choices than has previously been recognized. (shrink)

At its heart, The Dialectic of Counter-Enlightenment is a plea not to take doubt at its word—a plea for the return of a vanished philosophical intelligence..

In den drei Büchern der Schrift Über die Seele begründet Aristoteles erst-mals eine philosophische Psychologie als eigene Disziplin, welche empirisch von den Lebensfunktionen auf allen Stufen des Lebendigen ausgehend zu definitorischen Bestimmungen der verschiedenen seelischen Prinzipien kommt, besonders auch zum Vernunftprinzip des Menschen. Diese Ausgabe stützt sich auf die bekannten großen kommentierten Ausgaben des letzten und dieses Jahrhunderts. Der griechische Text ist der Teubner-Ausgabe entnommen; einige Varianten der Oxforder Ausgabe von Ross sind verzeichnet worden. Die Übersetzung orientiert sich an W. (...) Theiler, sucht jedoch eigene Wege des geeigneten Ausdrucks und gliedert zum besseren Verständnis häufiger Sinneinheiten ab, denen der Kommentar folgt. Mit Einleitung, Literaturhinweisen und Registern zum griechischen und deutschen Text. (shrink)

Franciscus de Prato hat sich immer wieder mit der Philosophie Ockhams auseinandergesetzt. Diese Arbeit zeigt auf, wie bedeutsam fur beide Philosophen die Sprachtheorie ist. Der Angelpunkt ist dabei die Annahme entweder eines Satzes im Geiste oder einer Proposition, die aus Dingen besteht. Diese Entscheidung wirkt sich dann auf verschiedenste Gebiete der Philosophie aus. Am Beispiel der Kategorienlehre wird dies deutlich: Kategorien sind Aussagbares. In Satzen aussagbar sind aber fur Ockham nur mentale Begriffe, keine Dinge. Also ist fur ihn die Kategorienordnung (...) keine Ordnung von extramentalen Dingen, sondern nur von mentalen Zeichen. Anders Franciscus: Fur ihn sind Gegenstande, nicht Zeichen primar aussagbar. Also ist fur ihn die kategoriale Ordnung eine reale Hierarchie. Welches Licht wirft diese Auseinandersetzung auf das Verstandnis der Philosophie Ockhams und der des Franciscus? Weitaus wichtiger als der universalientheoretische Unterschied zwischen Nominalismus und Realismus ist fur beide Denker ihre satztheoretische Ausrichtung. Ausgezeichnet mit dem Preis an Studierende der Ruhr-Universitat Bochum. (shrink)

Our aim in this survey article is to provide an accessible overview of some key results and questions in the theory of judgment aggregation. We omit proofs and technical details, focusing instead on concepts and underlying ideas.

Nudge is a popular public policy tool that harnesses well-known biases in human judgement to subtly guide people’s decisions, often to improve their choices or to achieve some socially desirable outcome. Thanks to recent developments in artificial intelligence (AI) methods new possibilities emerge of how and when our decisions can be nudged. On the one hand, algorithmically personalized nudges have the potential to vastly improve human daily lives. On the other hand, blindly outsourcing the development and implementation of nudges to (...) “black box” AI systems means that the ultimate reasons for why such nudges work, that is, the underlying human cognitive processes that they harness, will often be unknown. In this paper, we unpack this concern by considering a series of examples and case studies that demonstrate how AI systems can learn to harness biases in human judgment to reach a specified goal. Drawing on an analogy in a philosophical debate concerning the methodology of economics, we call for the need of an interdisciplinary oversight of AI systems that are tasked and deployed to nudge human behaviours. (shrink)

Die Metaphysik des Aristoteles begründete die Wissenschaft vom Seienden als Seiendes und gab der "ersten Philosophie" ihren Namen. Ausgehend vom Einzelding, das nur durch den Rückgang auf allgemeine Prinzipien erkannt werden kann, stellt Aristoteles die Lehre von den vier Ursachen auf, auf die jedes Seiende gegründet ist: Materie (causa materialis), Form (causa formalis), Bewegungsursache (causa efficiens) und Zweckursache (causa finalis). Die Metaphysik ist das grundlegende Werk der Philosophie als Wissenschaft.

Die "Metaphysik" des Aristoteles begründete die Wissenschaft vom Seienden als Seiendes und gab der 'Ersten Philosophie' ihren Namen. Ausgehend vom Einzelding, das nur durch den Rückgang auf allgemeine Prinzipien erkannt werden kann, stellt Aristoteles die Lehre von den vier Ursachen auf, auf die jedes Seiende gegründet ist: Materie , Form , Bewegungsursache und Zweckursache . Die "Metaphysik" ist das grundlegende Werk der Philosophie als Wissenschaft.

In dieser Leseausgabe werden die philosophischen Schriften von Aristoteles in der heute eingeführten Abfolge präsentiert. Als Grundlage dienten die vorhandenen Bände der Philosophischen Bibliothek, wobei auf den Abdruck des griechischen Textes verzichtet wurde. Kurze Vorbemerkungen zu den einzelnen Bänden geben eine erste Orientierung, Register erschließen die einzelnen Schriften. Die Randverweise auf die Paginierung der Gesamtausgabe der überlieferten Werke Aristoteles' von Immanuel Bekker (Berlin 1831-1870), nach der üblicherweise zitiert wird, ermöglichen ein leichtes und schnelles Auffinden gesuchter Textstellen.

All species continuously evolve to adapt to changing environments. The genetic variation that fosters such adaptation is caused by a plethora of mechanisms, including meiotic recombination that generates novel allelic combinations in the progeny of two parental lineages. However, a considerable number of eukaryotic species, including many fungi, do not have an apparent sexual cycle and are consequently thought to be limited in their evolutionary potential. As such organisms are expected to have reduced capability to eliminate deleterious mutations, they are (...) often considered as evolutionary dead ends. However, inspired by recent reports we argue that such organisms can be as persistent as organisms with conventional sexual cycles through the use of other mechanisms, such as genomic rearrangements, to foster adaptation. (shrink)

Longtermists claim that what we ought to do is mainly determined by how our actions might affect the very long-run future. A natural objection to longtermism is that these effects may be nearly impossible to predict — perhaps so close to impossible that, despite the astronomical importance of the far future, the expected value of our present actions is mainly determined by near-term considerations. This paper aims to precisify and evaluate one version of this epistemic objection to longtermism. To that (...) end, I develop two simple models for comparing ‘longtermist’ and ‘neartermist’ interventions, incorporating the idea that it is harder to make a predictable difference to the further future. These models yield mixed conclusions: if we simply aim to maximize expected value, and don’t mind premising our choices on minuscule probabilities of astronomical payoffs, the case for longtermism looks robust. But on some prima facie plausible empirical worldviews, the expectational superiority of longtermist interventions depends heavily on these ‘Pascalian’ probabilities. So the case for longtermism may depend either on plausible but non-obvious empirical claims or on a tolerance for Pascalian fanaticism. (shrink)

Contrary to a widespread belief, this book establishes that ontological and epistemological reductionism stand or fall together.