The Bayesian vector autoregressive model introduces the statistical properties of variables as the prior distribution of the parameters into the traditional vector autoregressive model, which can overcome the problem of too little freedom. The BVAR model established in this paper can overcome the problem of short time series data by using prior statistical information. In theory, it should have a good effect in China’s regional economic forecasting. Most regional forecasting model literature lacks out-of-sample forecasting error evaluation research in the real (...) sense, but our early forecasts of major economic indicators provide an excellent opportunity for this paper to evaluate the actual forecast errors of the BVAR model in detail. The analysis in this paper shows that the prediction error of the BVAR model is very small and the prediction ability is very satisfactory. At the same time, this article also analyzes and points out the direction of efforts to further improve the prediction accuracy of the BVAR model. (shrink)

In this paper, the nonsmooth compound transmission control protocol with the gentle random early detection system with the state-dependent round-trip delay is investigated in detail. Uniqueness of the positive equilibrium is proved firstly. Then, the closed approximate periodic solutions in this state-dependent delayed nonsmooth compound TCP with the GRED model are obtained by employing the harmonic balance and alternating frequency/time domain method. Then, we compare the results generated by numerical simulations with those of the closed approximate expressions obtained by HB-AFT. (...) It indicates that HB-AFT is simple, correct, and powerful for state-dependent delayed nonsmooth dynamical systems. Finally, we find the complicated dynamic: chaos. It is a grazing chaos with a hybrid property, i.e., where usually w oscillates at a very low frequency and q oscillates at a very high frequency. And, the route to chaos is a very rare route, i.e., the instantaneous and local transition of stable equilibrium to chaos. So, to the end of stability and good performance, we should adjust the parameters carefully to avoid the periodic and chaotic oscillations. (shrink)