I argue that Newtonian-style deduction-from-the-phenomena arguments should only carry conviction when they yield unexpectedly simple conclusions. That in that case they do establish higher rational probabilities for the theories they lead to than for any known or easily constructible rival theories. However I deny that such deductive justifications yield high absolute rational probabilities, and argue that the history of physics suggests that there are always other not-yet-known simpler theories with higher rational probabilities on all the original evidence, and that these (...) later turn out closer to the truth. My analyses rely on the modern Solomonoff-Levin solution to the problem of constructing a mathematically and philosophically acceptable inductive logic. (shrink)

The detailed analysis of a particular quasi-historical numerical example is used to illustrate the way in which a Bayesian personalist approach to scientific inference resolves the Duhemian problem of which of a conjunction of hypotheses to reject when they jointly yield a prediction which is refuted. Numbers intended to be approximately historically accurate for my example show, in agreement with the views of Lakatos, that a refutation need have astonishingly little effect on a scientist's confidence in the ‘hard core’ of (...) a successful research programme even when a comparable confirmation would greatly enhance that confidence. Timeo Danaos et dona ferentis. (shrink)

Illustrates how maps tell us as much about the people and the powers which create them, as about the places they show. Presents historical and contemporary evidence of how the human urge to describe, understand and control the world is presented through the medium of mapping, together with the individual and environmental constraints of the creator of the map.

It is argued in this paper that the valid argument forms coming under the general heading of Demonstrative Induction have played a highly significant role in the history of theoretical physics. This situation was thoroughly appreciated by several earlier philosophers of science and deserves to be more widely known and understood.

Dem anthropofugalen Denken wird die dionysische Bejahung des Lebens entgegengestellt. Nietzsches Ja zum Leben steht somit solchen Denkern entgegen, die das Heil der Welt in der Verweigerung des Erdendaseins erblicken. Das Buch stellt im ersten Teil die negativen Passagen Schopenhauers zum Thema Leben vor, die Nietzsches Widerspruch herausgefordert haben. Der zweite Teil ist dialektisch als Nietzsches Antwort mit dem Konstrukt Übermensch zu verstehen, welcher die allgemeine Problematik der Höherentwicklung aufzeigt. Dabei ist Nietzsches generelle Skeptik gegenüber Moral als Antwort auf die (...) Schopenhauersche »Quelle der Moral« zu verstehen. (shrink)

Die vorauseilende Frage des Buchs wird sein, wie sind Kriterien, Maßstäbe selbstverantwortli-chen und vernünftigen Handelns möglich – wenn überhaupt? Was ist der Grund legitimer mora-lischer Urteile? Läßt ein radikales Denken der Zeitlichkeit noch etwas, woran wir uns „halten“ können? Gibt es eine „Ethik ohne Geländer“? Auch wenn ein Hegelsches Denken der Ge-schichte des Geistes oder ein Kantisches Denken des intelligiblen Charakters nicht mehr möglich sind, so scheint die Frage nach der Nicht-Notwendigkeit eines metaphysischen Denkens nicht eindeutig bejaht zu sein. Wenn (...) in dieser „Kehre“ zur Grundlosigkeit, zur Endlichkeit selbst, das Denken nicht nur zum grundnegativ-kritischen, sondern auch zum positiv-ethischen Denkens wird – wäre dies nicht eine Dialektik der Endlichkeit, Hegels letzter Streich? Diese Untersuchung hat zum Ziel, generell Wege sichtbar zu machen, die zu moralischen Urteilen führen wollen. Dabei konnte von der Sache her nicht ausbleiben, eine Gegenüberstellung zu vollziehen, welche die unterschiedlichen Ausgangspunkte aufzeigt. Der Methodische Schritt geht aus von der Alternative der Grundsätzlichkeit: Gefühl - Vernunft und deren Verquickung unter dem Begriff "emotionale Vernunft". Es kann hier selbstverständlich nicht darum gehen, die ganze Methodenlehre der Ethik auszubreiten. Die Ausführungen wollen vorrangig das Problem der Findung aufzeigen, welches sich schließlich bei allen ethischen Systemen ergibt. (shrink)

In pursuing philosophical enquiries in the foundations of physics, I have found myself operating with a concept of explanation which has a quite different logical syntax from the concept which Hempel has explicated. I suspect that the concept of explanation I operate with is not especially idiosyncratic, is not fully captured in the existing philosophical literature, and that it may be the more appropriate concept if we are to consider explanation as the goal of physics. I therefore propose to give (...) here a short account of the structure of this alternative concept of explanation. (shrink)

On the model of Newton’s Principia, the great majority of successful new theories in physics have been introduced by deduction from the phenomena arguments. In such arguments an explanatory theory is deduced from one or more of the empirical facts, or lower level empirical generalizations, which it is designed to explain, by the device of adjoining suitable higher-level theoretical constraints on the form of the required theory. Those theoretical constraints leave certain parameters, the precise form of certain functions, and so (...) on, in the new theory, undetermined, except with the help of the lower level empirical premises. (shrink)

We argue that music can serve as a time-sensitive lens into the interplay between instrumental and ritual stances in cultural evolution. Over various timescales, music can switch between pursuing an end goal or not, and between presenting a causal opacity that is resolvable, or not. With these fluctuations come changes in the motivational structures that drive innovation versus copying.