According to the Bayesian view, scientific hypotheses must be appraised in terms of their posterior probabilities relative to the available experimental data. Such posterior probabilities are derived from the prior probabilities of the hypotheses by applying Bayes'theorem. One of the most important problems arising within the Bayesian approach to scientific methodology is the choice of prior probabilities. Here this problem is considered in detail w.r.t. two applications of the Bayesian approach: (1) the theory of inductive probabilities (TIP) developed by Rudolf (...) Carnap and other epistomologists and (2) the analysis of the multinational inferences provided by Bayesian statstics (BS). ... Zie: Summary. (shrink)

We report the results of a dual-task study in which participants performed a tracking and typing task under various experimental conditions. An objective payoff function was used to provide explicit feedback on how participants should trade off performance between the tasks. Results show that participants’ dual-task interleaving strategy was sensitive to changes in the difficulty of the tracking task and resulted in differences in overall task performance. To test the hypothesis that people select strategies that maximize payoff, a Cognitively Bounded (...) Rational Analysis model was developed. This analysis evaluated a variety of dual-task interleaving strategies to identify the optimal strategy for maximizing payoff in each condition. The model predicts that the region of optimum performance is different between experimental conditions. The correspondence between human data and the prediction of the optimal strategy is found to be remarkably high across a number of performance measures. This suggests that participants were honing their behavior to maximize payoff. Limitations are discussed. (shrink)

Cet article défend l’idée de l’existence d’une analyse originale de Lemercier de la Rivière quant au concept de despotisme légal non révélée par les commentateurs. Quesnay, chef de file des physiocrates est habituellement reconnu pour son initiative en la matière mais la littérature mobilise systématiquement les écrits de Lemercier de la Rivière pour en faire l’exposé complet. La même ambiguïté apparaît quant à l’écriture du principal texte de Lemercier de la Rivière : L’Ordre naturel et essentiel des sociétés politiques. Cet (...) article apporte un éclairage nouveau sur les projets physiocratiques pour fonder un état de droit. (shrink)

Every rational person knows that there is a finite limit to the carrying capacity of the earth. No ecologist was needed to tell us this, for the statement that finite systems cannot sustain infinite magnitudes is a truth of logic no sane person can choose to ignore and still claim to be rational. The question concerning how we shall approach the limits to population growth, and at what cost, is still an open question. Human beings have increasingly taken on a (...) "cybernetic role" in the ecosystem which sustains them. The question facing humankind relative to population control is, Will the cybernetic role of human beings on the earth's ecosystem be expanded to include the regulation of human numbers, or will nature reassume this function? If this role in regulating human numbers is assumed by people, what forms will it take? (shrink)

Progress in automatic control, particularly in optimizing and self‐adaptive controls, is used to establish models in order to connect three horizons: knowledge, human activities and automatic controls. The guiding operation in all these horizons is recognished as the evolution. In the horizon of automatic controls, the evolutions can be said closed, since they are completely defined. In the horizon of human activities, they can be said open, because their over all direction depends both on the constituents and on the partial (...) accomplishment. In the horizon of the acquisition of the knowledge, there appear to be both evolutions in closed and open form; the problem is therefore to know whether these evolutions are teleological or homeostatic. There does not seem to be a ready answer; it could however probably be accelerated by better knowing the concept of matching the analogy. (shrink)

It is often claimed that reducing population size would be advantageous for climate change mitigation, on the grounds that lower population would naturally correspond to lower emissions. This apparently obvious claim is in fact seriously misleading. Reducing population size would indeed, other suitable things being equal, reduce the emissions rate. But it is well recognised that the primary determinant of the eventual amount of climate change is not the emissions rate, but rather cumulative emissions. It is far less clear whether (...) reducing population size would reduce cumulative emissions, or would in any other way prove an advantage for reasons related to climate change. This paper identifies and briefly discusses the issues relevant to assessing that less clear question. (shrink)

Overpopulation is often identified as one of the key drivers of climate change. Further, it is often thought that the mechanism behind this is obvious: 'more people means more greenhouse gas emissions'. However, in light of the fact that climate change depends most closely on cumulative emissions rather than on emissions rates, the relationship between population size and climate change is more subtle than this. Reducing the size of instantaneous populations can fruitfully be thought of as spreading out a fixed (...) number of people more thinly over time, and (in light of the significance of cumulative emissions) it is not immediately clear whether or how such a 'spreading' would help with climate change. To bring the point into sharp relief, I first set out a simple model according to which population reduction would not lead to any climate-change-related improvement. I then critically examine the assumptions of the model. If population reduction would lead to a significant climate-change-related improvement, this must be because (i) population reduction would significantly reduce even cumulative emissions, and/or (ii) climate damages are, to a significant extent, driven by the pace of climate change, and not only the eventual extent of the change. (shrink)

One of the important measures of quality of education is the performance of students in academic settings. Nowadays, abundant data is stored in educational institutions about students which can help to discover insight on how students are learning and to improve their performance ahead of time using data mining techniques. In this paper, we developed a student performance prediction model that predicts the performance of high school students for the next semester for five courses. We modeled our prediction system as (...) a multi-label classification task and used support vector machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), K-nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Multi-layer perceptron (MLP) as base-classifiers to train our model. We further improved the performance of the prediction model using a state-of-the-art partitioning scheme to divide the label space into smaller spaces and used Label Powerset (LP) transformation method to transform each labelset into a multi-class classification task. The proposed model achieved better performance in terms of different evaluation metrics when compared to other multi-label learning tasks such as binary relevance and classifier chains. (shrink)

In section I the notions of logical and inductive probability will be discussed as well as two explicanda, viz. degree of confirmation, the base for inductive probability, and degree of evidential support, Popper's favourite explicandum. In section II it will be argued that Popper's paradox of ideal evidence is no paradox at all; however, it will also be shown that Popper's way out has its own merits.

While the French Jesuits were scandalized at God's moral necessity to elect the best, Des Bosses was right in defending the Théodicée drawing the attention to the contemporary Spanish theology. In fact, Optimism is not the invention of Leibniz', but of the two Sevillan Jesuits' Diego Ruiz de Montoya and Diego Granado . It will be argued that Optimism has two roots, both of them closely connected with the Posttridentinian Theology: 1) the moralization of modal categories, 2) a universe integrating (...) Nature, Grace and Incarnation. In the latter regard, Optimism is a legitimate child of Molinism, viz. in respect to the ,scientia media‘ being the basis of its concept of World, to the ,total decree‘ as a certain mode of this world being realized. As a result, the Théodicée depends on Jesuit theology to an extent which still has to be acknowledged. (shrink)

The present study sought to determine whether Barrett's counterintuitiveness coding and quantifying scheme could be applied to cultural materials with sufficient intercoder reliability, provide evidence concerning just how counterintuitive is too counterintuitive for a concept to be a recurrent cultural idea, and test whether counterintuitive intentional agent concepts are more common in folktales than other classes of counterintuitive concepts. Seventy-three folktales from around the world were sampled from larger collections. Using Barrett's CI-Scheme, two independent coders identified 116 counterintuitive objects and (...) scored them for degree of counterintuitiveness with very high inter-rater concordance. Of folktales, 79% had one or two counterintuitive objects. Of the counterintuitive objects 93% had a counterintuitiveness score of only one. Of counterintuitive objects, 98% were agents. Results suggest the CI-Scheme may have utility for analyzing cultural materials, that the cognitive optimum for cultural transmission falls around one counterintuitive feature, and that counterintuitive agents are more common than other types of counterintuitive objects in folktales. (shrink)

Here, I discuss how natural biological evolution might have selected human origin and the psychology of the better mind-brain. However, all humans are closely related; why do we make crimes, war, hate, and jealousy their primary reasons and overcoming methodologies? How can they gain their best happiness? What kind of philosophy apply to annalize this big question and convince humankind to evolve their mind? How we could achieve our optimum potential happiness by developing hidden intelligence to make the world (...) a happier place to live in. (shrink)

This essay introduces a new type of measure of social welfare, where populations are evaluated by their resemblance to an optimum population, which is an (in principle) possible population with the highest degree of social welfare, relative to some circumstances. Here it is argued to be the largest possible population where everyone fares maximally well. The new measure is responsive to quality of welfare, equality of welfare, and the number of people. It satisfies dominance and negative monotonicity, and it (...) avoids both the repugnant conclusion and a reverse repugnant conclusion for comparisons relative to our future on earth. (shrink)

Quite contrary to the mainstream history of ideas, Spanish intellectuals play an important part in the 17 th century dispute about natural law, physical evidence and the principle of induction. Optimism as taught by Antonio Perez and Martin Esparza in Salamanca and Rome has given rise to a sophisticated theological debate of a subject that was to demand philosophers' attention for centuries to come. The features of empirism brought forward by Bernardo Aldrete and Antonio Bernaldo de Quiros will stimulate the (...) research on Hume's scholastic reading. (shrink)

The definition of death is one of the oldest and most enduring problems in biophilosophy and bioethics. Serious controversies over formally defining death began with the invention of the positive-pressure mechanical ventilator in the 1950s. For the first time, physicians could maintain ventilation and, hence, circulation on patients who had sustained what had been previously lethal brain damage. Prior to the development of mechanical ventilators, brain injuries severe enough to induce apnea quickly progressed to cardiac arrest from hypoxemia. Before the (...) 1950s, the loss of spontaneous breathing and heartbeat were perfect predictors of death because the functioning of the brain and of all other organs ceased rapidly and nearly simultaneously thereafter, producing a unitary death phenomenon. In the pretechnological era, physicians and philosophers did not have to consider whether a human being who had lost certain “vital functions” but had retained others was alive, because such cases were technically impossible. (shrink)

We describe the structure, operation, and experience of the Massachusetts General Hospital ethics committee, formally called the Edwin H. Cassem Optimum Care Committee, from January 2007 through December 2013. Founded in 1974 as one of the nation’s first hospital ethics committees, this committee has primarily focused on the optimum use of life-sustaining treatments. We outline specific sociodemographic and clinical characteristics of consult patients during this period, demographic differences between the adult inpatient population and patients for whom the ethics (...) committee was consulted, and salient features of the consults themselves. We include three case studies that illustrate important consult themes during this period. Our findings expand knowledge about the structure and workings of hospital ethics committees and illustrate how one ethics committee has developed and utilized policies on end-of-life care. More generally, we model a sociological approach to the study of clinical ethics consultation that could be utilized to contextualize institutional practices over time. (shrink)

“Brain death,” the determination of human death by showing the irreversible loss of all clinical functions of the brain, has become a worldwide practice. A biophilosophical account of brain death requires four sequential tasks: agreeing on the paradigm of death, a set of preconditions that frame the discussion; determining the definition of death by making explicit the consensual concept of death; determining the criterion of death that proves the definition has been fulfilled by being both necessary and sufficient for death; (...) and determining the tests of death for physicians to employ at the patient's bedside to demonstrate that the criterion of death has been fulfilled. The best definition of death is “the cessation of functioning of the organism as a whole.” The whole-brain criterion is the only criterion that is both necessary and sufficient for death. Brain death tests are used only in the unusual case in which a patient's ventilation is being supported. Brain death critics have identified weaknesses in its formulation. But despite its shortcomings, the whole-brain death formulation comprises a concept and public policy that make intuitive and practical sense and that has been well accepted by many societies. (shrink)

The guide dog robot (GDR) is a low-speed companion robot that serves visually impaired people and is used to guide blind people to walk steadily, carrying a variety of intelligent technologies and needing to have the ability to guide with optimal energy consumption in specific scenarios. This paper proposes an innovative technique for virtual-real collaborative path planning and navigation of the GDR specific indoor scenarios, and designs an experimental method for virtual-real collaborative path planning of the GDR specific scenarios. The (...) energy consumption integral equation is used to solve for the energy consumption of the GDR with virtual-real synergy, and the difference in energy consumption is compared for three different navigation directions: horizontal, vertical and oblique obstacle avoidance. The results show that the optimized GDR saves 6.91% in rectilinear movement and 10.60% in curved movement. The efficiency of planning and navigating the GDR in specific domestic scenarios is verified by a virtual-real cooperative. The realization of optimal path planning for energy consumption is instrumental in exploring many of the most significant thought in the path planning and navigation of mobile robots in indoor specific scenarios. (shrink)

Buildings are constructed for accommodating living and industrial needs. Floor cleaning robots have been developed to cater to the demand of these buildings. Area coverage and coverage time are crucial performance factors of a floor cleaning robot. Reconfigurable tiling robots have been introduced over fixed shape robots to improve area coverage in floor cleaning applications compared to robots with fixed morphologies. However, area coverage and coverage time of a tiling robot compromised one another. This study proposes a novel concept that (...) considers the ability of a tiling robot to configure both its morphology and size according to the environment. This concept is inspired by the pleomorphism that could be seen in bacteria. In this regard, P-hTetro, a pleomorphic tiling robot that can reconfigure its morphology and size, is considered. A novel coverage strategy for realizing the size reconfiguration is also proposed. According to this strategy, the robot covers obstacle-free areas with its maximum size, while an obstacle cluster is covered after shrinking to an optimum size. The optimum size for reconfiguration is determined by the genetic algorithm based on the arrangement of the environment. The performance and behavior of the proposed P-hTetro have been compared against that of an existing tiling robot which has a fixed size. According to the statistical outcomes, a tiling robot with the ability to reconfigure its size can significantly improve the performance in the aspects of area coverage and coverage time compared to a tiling robot with no ability to reconfigure its size. (shrink)

Many political theorists and philosophers use Condorcet's Jury Theorem to defend democracy. This paper illustrates an uncomfortable implication of Condorcet's Jury Theorem. Realistically, when the conditions of Condorcet’s Jury Theorem hold, even in very high stakes elections, having more than 100,000 citizens vote does no significant good in securing good political outcomes. On the Condorcet model, unless voters enjoy voting, or unless they produce some other value by voting, then the cost to most voters of voting exceeds the expected epistemic (...) benefits to the common good of their casting a vote. Anyone who is committed to democracy on the basis of the Jury Theorem ought also to hold that widespread voting is wasteful, at least unless she can provide some further justification of mass democratic participation. (shrink)