Discussion Note: Non-Measurability, Imprecise Credences, and Imprecise Chances

Mind (forthcoming)
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Abstract

This paper is a discussion note on Isaacs et al. (2022), who have claimed to offer a new motivation for imprecise probabilities, based on the mathematical phenomenon of non-measurability. In this note, I clarify some consequences of their proposal. In particular, I show that if their proposal is applied to a bounded 3-dimensional space, then they have to reject at least one of the following: (i) If A is at most as probable as B and B is at most as probable as C, then A is at most as probable as C. (ii) Let A ∩ C = B ∩ C = ∅. A is at most as probable as B iff (A ∪ C) is at most as probable as (B ∪ C). But rejecting either statement seems unattractive.

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Joshua Thong
Singapore Management University

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References found in this work

A treatise on probability.John Maynard Keynes - 1921 - Mineola, N.Y.: Dover Publications.
A Treatise on Probability.J. M. Keynes - 1989 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 40 (2):219-222.
Theories of Probability.Terrence Fine - 1973 - Academic Press.
Pragmatic Considerations on Comparative Probability.Thomas F. Icard - 2016 - Philosophy of Science 83 (3):348-370.

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