Synthese 192 (4):1089-1116 (
2015)
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Abstract
Error statistics is an important methodological view in philosophy of statistics and philosophy of science that can be applied to scientific experiments such as clinical trials. In this paper, I raise two potential issues for ES when it comes to guiding, and explaining early stopping of randomized controlled trials : ES provides limited guidance in cases of early unfavorable trends due to the possibility of trend reversal; ES is silent on how to prospectively control error rates in experiments requiring multiple interim analyses. The method of conditional power, together with a rationing principle for RCTs, can assist ES in addressing such issues