Abstract

The Human Genome Project is expected to increase dramatically our ability to predict the likelihood of genetic disease in an individual. It is important to reject the myth of genetic determinism—i.e., the simple-minded belief that such complex outcomes as heart disease, cancer, or autoimmune diseases are caused exclusively by particular genes. But it is equally important to acknowledge that genes may play a role in making a person more or less susceptible to such diseases. The ever-increasing prospect of genetic prediction, spurred by the Human Genome Project, has implications for social practices such as insurance, in which predicting the risk of disease or death plays a crucial role. Concerned that improved genetic prediction might have unfortunate social consequences unless the impact of such predictions were anticipated, the U.S. Human Genome Project's Working Group on Ethical, Legal, and Social Issues established a Task Force on Genetic Information and Insurance in May 1991. The Task Force met seven times over its two-year life. By the end of the first year, it had reached several tentative conclusions. Most importantly, we became convinced that the problem posed by increased genetic prediction in insurance was a genuine and important one. When we began, the danger seemed plausible but far from certain. The information we gathered in the first year persuaded us that genetic prediction of disease was in one sense already with us and, in another sense, likely to grow massively in the foreseeable future.