The paper introduces, compares and contrasts formal models of source reliability proposed in the epistemology literature, in particular the prominent models of Bovens and Hartmann and Olsson :127–143, 2011). All are Bayesian models seeking to provide normative guidance, yet they differ subtly in assumptions and resulting behavior. Models are evaluated both on conceptual grounds and through simulations, and the relationship between models is clarified. The simulations both show surprising similarities and highlight relevant differences between these models. Most importantly, however, our (...) evaluations reveal that important normative concerns arguably remain unresolved. The philosophical implications of this for testimony are discussed. (shrink)

ABSTRACTProbability judgements entail a conjunction fallacy if a conjunction is estimated to be more probable than one of its conjuncts. In the context of predication of alternative logical hypothesis, Bayesian logic provides a formalisation of pattern probabilities that renders a class of pattern-based CFs rational. BL predicts a complete system of other logical inclusion fallacies. A first test of this prediction is investigated here, using transparent tasks with clear set inclusions, varying in observed frequencies only. Experiment 1 uses data where (...) BL makes dominant predictions; Experiment 2's predictions were less clear, and we additionally investigated judgements about the second-most probable hypotheses. The results corroborated a pattern-probability account and cannot be easily explained by other theories of CFs. IFs were not limited to conjunctions, but rather occurred systematically for several logical connectives. Thus, pattern-based prob... (shrink)

In recent years, the receipt and the perception of information has changed in ways which have fueled fears about the fates of our democracies. However, real information on these possibilities or the direction of these changes does not exist. Into this gap, Hahn and colleagues bring the power of Condorcet's (1785) Jury Theorem to show that changes in our information networks have affected voter inter‐dependence so that it is likely that voters are now collectively more ignorant even if individual voter (...) competence remains unchanged. (shrink)

This paper examines the basic question of how we can come to form accurate beliefs about the world when we do not fully know how good or bad our evidence is. Here, we show, using simulations with otherwise optimal agents, the cost of misjudging the quality of our evidence. We compare different strategies for correctly estimating that quality, such as outcome‐ and expectation‐based updating. We also identify conditions under which misjudgment of evidence quality can nevertheless lead to accurate beliefs, as (...) well as those conditions where no strategy will help. These results indicate both where people will nevertheless succeed and where they will fail when information quality is degraded. (shrink)

The goal of the present set of studies is to explore the boundary conditions of category transfer in causal learning. Previous research has shown that people are capable of inducing categories based on causal learning input, and they often transfer these categories to new causal learning tasks. However, occasionally learners abandon the learned categories and induce new ones. Whereas previously it has been argued that transfer is only observed with essentialist categories in which the hidden properties are causally relevant for (...) the target effect in the transfer relation, we here propose an alternative explanation, the unbroken mechanism hypothesis. This hypothesis claims that categories are transferred from a previously learned causal relation to a new causal relation when learners assume a causal mechanism linking the two relations that is continuous and unbroken. The findings of two causal learning experiments support the unbroken mechanism hypothesis. (shrink)

In diesem Buch zeigt Björn Sydow die Möglichkeit des Menschseins unter Berücksichtigung der menschlichen Leidenschaften auf. Mit dem Begriff Leidenschaft beziehen wir uns auf Zustände beziehen, in denen Menschen darauf ausgerichtet sind, im Vollzug einer bestimmten Tätigkeit zu stehen. Das Ausleben solcher Leidenschaften ist nicht mit einer dualistischen Konzeption des menschlichen Handelns verträglich, weil darin das Handlungssubjekt von dem Vorgang des Verhaltens stets getrennt bleibt, so dass sich der Wunsch, ganz im aktiven Vollzug einer Tätigkeit zu stehen, gar nicht (...) erfüllen kann. In kritischem Anschluss an Helmuth Plessners Theorie der Lebewesen wird dem Versuch nachgegangen, menschliches Handeln nicht als Wirkung mentaler Zustände zu konzipieren, sondern als die Aktualisierung von Vermögen, die ebenso wie die Verhaltensdispositionen unbelebter Körper als Ausdifferenzierung des Eingebundenseins körperlicher Wesen in die Welt gelten können. So wird die dualistische Konzeption des Menschseins unterlaufen, ohne das menschliche Handeln zu einem unbelebten Vorgang verkommen zu lassen. Dabei steht das Vorgehen unter dem Anspruch, die Welt der körperlichen Einzeldinge auch in dieser Ausweitung als diejenige primäre Wirklichkeit zu erhalten, von der wir durch unsere Sinne Wissen erwerben können. (shrink)

This work extends theory about entrepreneurship across formal and informal institutional boundaries. While research has identified formal, informal, and renegade economies, we introduce the concept of the controversial economy, defined as the set of legal but illegitimate activities through which actors exploit opportunities. We explain the existence of the controversial economy, its prevalence, and provide examples. We explore how and why entrepreneurs may exploit opportunities in the controversial economy based on individual and opportunity-related attributes. Finally, we identify several theoretical perspectives (...) and research questions as an initial research agenda for the controversial economy. (shrink)

Raport powstał z inicjatywy Fundacji Pomocy Matematykom i Informatykom Niesprawnym Ruchowo w ramach projektu „Centrum Edukacji i Aktywizacji Zawodowej Osób Niepełnosprawnych - Oddziały Bydgoszcz i Łódź". Stanowi on rezultat badań zjawiska niepełnosprawności i kategorii społecznej, jaką stanowią osoby niepełnosprawne, oraz funkcjonowania ponad 30 agencji zatrudnienia wyspecjalizowanych we wsparciu osób niepełnosprawnych na rynku pracy. Pierwszy rozdział ekspertyzy dotyczy sposobów definiowania zjawiska niepełnosprawności, w drugim zaś - podjęto zagadnienie budowania potencjału niepublicznych służb zatrudnienia osób niepełnosprawnych. Trzeci rozdział raportu zawiera informacje dotyczące przyjętej (...) metodologii badań, a czwarty prezentuje wyniki analiz zebranego materiału empirycznego w odniesieniu do oferty agencji zatrudnienia i jej klientów. Tematem piątego rozdziału pracy jest kondycja agencji zatrudnienia osób niepełnosprawnych, prowadzonych przez organizacje pozarządowe. Motyw przewodni kolejnego rozdziału to otoczenie zewnętrzne agencji zatrudnienia. Ostatnia cześć raportu dotyczy rekomendacji wspomagających rozwiązywanie dylematów rozwojowych, przed którymi stoją agencje zatrudnienia. ** This report was made on the initiative of the Foundation Supporting Disabled Mathematicians and IT professionals in the project "Centre for Education and Vocational Activation of Persons with Disabilities - Branches Bydgoszcz and Lodz." It is the result of research on disability phenomenon and people with disabilities social category. It contains information about operations of more than 30 employment agencies specialized in helping people with disabilities into the labor market. First chapter of expertise relates to methods for defining the prevalence of disability and in the second - it was the issue of capacity building for non-disabled employment services. Third chapter of the report provides information on the methodology of research, and the fourth presents the results of an empirical analysis of the collected material in relation to the offer of employment agencies and their clients. Theme of the fifth chapter of the work is the condition of the disabled employment agency run by NGOs. Theme of the next chapter is the external environment of employment agencies. Last part of the report focuses on solving a recommendation supporting development dilemmas faced by agencies employment. -/- . (shrink)

ZusammenfassungUnter den nichtlogischen Konstanten der Wissenschaftssprache werden zwei Arten unterschieden, die Beobachtungsterme und die theoretischen Terme . Die letzteren werden nicht durch Definitionen eingeführt, sondern durch Postulate zweier Arten, nämlich theoretische Postulate, zum Beispiel Grundgesetze der Physik, und Korrespondenzpostulate, die die theoretischen Terme mit Beobachtungstermen verbinden. Wie schon Hilbert gezeigt hat, können in dieser Weise sowohl die Mathematik als auch die theoretische Physik als ungedeutete Kalküle aufgestellt werden. Es wird hier kurz erklärt, dass durch diesen Aufbau auch den mathematischen Termen (...) eine Bedeutung beigelegt wird. Die theoretischen Terme erhalten durch die Korrespondenzpostulate wenigstens eine unvollständige Deutung. Es wird gezeigt, wie die Unterscheidung von analytischen und synthetischen Sätzen auch für die theoretische Sprache definiert werden kann.Among the non‐logical constants of the language of science two kinds are distinguished, the observation terms and the theoretical terms . The latter terms are introduced, not by definitions, but by postulates of two kinds, theoretical postulates, e.g., basic laws of physics, and correspondence postulates which connect the theoretical terms with observation terms. As Hilbert has explained, both mathematics and theoretical physics can in this way be constructed in the form of uninterpreted calculi. It is here briefly indicated that by this method of construction also the mathematical terms have meanings assigned to them. The theoretical terms obtain at least an incomplete interpretation by means of the correspondence postulates. It is shown how the distinction between analytic and synthetic sentences can be defined also for the theoretical language. (shrink)

Now you can learn from the original, most important source for magic in the Western world that has ever been published, when you get Agrippa'sThree Books of Occult Philosophy. This massive volume was originally published in 1531, and occultists have been drawing on it ever since. Now, Llewellyn is proud to produce the first complete reprint of the original English translation in the last 500 years. Donald Tyson edited this work and removed the hundreds of errors that appeared in the (...) original translation. He also fully annotated the work, to make it understandableand usableby people today. ·Discover what the Renaissance scholar knew about astrology, medicine, history, herbs, geography, animals, angels, devils, Witches, charms, the weather, and a host of other subjects ·Gain immediate reference to a vast amount of arcane, but completely annotated, magical material ·Find corrected drawings of seals, sigils, and magic squares, and correctly represented geomantic figures ·Explore the practical Kabbalah, geomancy, the magic squares, the elements, the humors, and the Soul of the World ·Consult the new Biographical dictionary for background on each of the hundreds of writers and historical figures referred to by Agrippa ·Consult the new Geographical Dictionary for data on referenced rivers, mountains, nations, citiesmany of which now carry different names. The Three Books of Occult Philosophy is the most complete repository of pagan and Neoplatonic magic ever compiled. This book is packed with material you will not find elsewhere, including copious extracts on magic from obscure or lost works by Pythagoras, Ptolemy, Plato, Aristotle, and many others. Tyson's detailed annotations clarify difficult references and provide origins of quotations, even expanding upon them in many cases, in order to make Agrippa's work more accessible to the modern reader. The Three Books of Occult Philosophy is the ultimate "how-to" for magical workings. It describes how to work all manner of divinations and natural and ceremonial magic in such clear and useful detail that it is stillthe guide for modern techniques. The extensive new supplementary material makes this wisdom practical for use today. The Three Books of Occult Philosophy is an essential reference tool for all students of the occult. Get your copy today. (shrink)

Open science will make science more efficient, reliable, and responsive to societal challenges. The European Commission has sought to advance open science policy from its inception in a holistic and integrated way, covering all aspects of the research cycle from scientific discovery and review to sharing knowledge, publishing, and outreach. We present the steps taken with a forward-looking perspective on the challenges laying ahead, in particular the necessary change of the rewards and incentives system for researchers (for which various actors (...) are co-responsible and which goes beyond the mandate of the European Commission). Finally, we discuss the role of artificial intelligence (AI) within an open science perspective. (shrink)

Betr. u.a. Erasmus und die Reformation in Basel.

ZusammenfassungP. Bernays hat darauf hingewiesen, dass man, um die Widerspruchs freiheit der klassischen Zahlentheorie zu beweisen, den Hilbertschen flniter Standpunkt dadurch erweitern muss, dass man neben den auf Symbole sich beziehenden kombinatorischen Begriffen gewisse abstrakte Begriffe zulässt, Die abstrakten Begriffe, die bisher für diesen Zweck verwendet wurden, sinc die der konstruktiven Ordinalzahltheorie und die der intuitionistischer. Logik. Es wird gezeigt, dass man statt deesen den Begriff einer berechenbaren Funktion endlichen einfachen Typs über den natürlichen Zahler benutzen kann, wobei keine anderen (...) Konstruktionsverfahren für solche Funktionen nötig sind, als einfache Rekursion nach einer Zahlvariablen und Einsetzung von Funktionen ineinander .P. Bernays has pointed out that, in order to prove the consistency of classical number theory, it is necessary to extend Hilbert's finitary stand‐point by admitting certain abstract concepts in addition to the combinatorial concepts referring to symbols. The abstract concepts that so far have been used for this purpose are those of the constructive theory of ordinals and those of intuitionistic logic. It is shown that the concept of a computable function of finite simple type over the integers can be used instead, where no other procedures of constructing such functions are necessary except simple recursion by an integral variable and substitution of functions in each other. (shrink)

Philosophers often aim to demonstrate that the things we ordinarily think and say can be reconciled with our considered beliefs about the world. To this end, many philosophers try to paraphrase ordinary language claims by finding equivalent sentences that are less misleading. For instance, though we know that there is no British family that is the average one, we want to say that the average British family has 1.8 children, and we might do that by paraphrasing this claim as: there (...) are nearly twice as many British children as British families. This article aims to introduce and distinguish different paraphrase strategies, sketch their role in metaphysical debates and highlight some crucial questions that proponents of such strategies face. (shrink)

Achievements have recently begun to attract increased attention from value theorists. One recurring idea in this budding literature is that one important factor determining the magnitude or value of an achievement is the amount of effort the achiever invested. The aim of this paper is to present the most plausible version of this idea. This advances the current state of debate where authors are invoking substantially different notions of effort and are thus talking past each other. While the concept of (...) effort has been invoked in the philosophical analysis of a number of important concepts such as desert, attention, competence, and distributive justice, it has hardly ever been analyzed itself. This paper makes headway in this regard by discussing three ambiguities in the everyday notion of effort. It continues to develop two accounts of effort and shows how both of them are achievement-enhancing. (shrink)

This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity has a copyright on the body of the work. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and (...) made generally available to the public. To ensure a quality reading experience, this work has been proofread and republished using a format that seamlessly blends the original graphical elements with text in an easy-to-read typeface. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant. (shrink)

Labeling, Recovering and Reactivating: The Role of Labels on Microscope Slides in the Finding System on the Basis of Alzheimer's Auguste D. Preparations. This study discusses the role of labels in the process of the reactivation of preparations. Labels on slides together with corresponding lists on cards or sheets build what is here called a specific finding system. In the sciences of the archive the disciplinary memory together with such a finding system are the basis to the ability of the (...) sciences today to reactivate preparations from the beginning of the last century as it occurs with the Auguste D. preparations. The case of Alzheimer's micropreparations of brain parts of Auguste D. – the case that he used to show that hers was a specific brain disease unknown before – serves to describe Alzheimer's writing on the labels. It is compared to slides and labels prepared by other medical researchers between the 1890s and 1920s and the respective finding systems. Being an epistemologicum, micropreparations, as they are data, in their hybrid status of both image and material in one, cross the boundaries between icon and index. This is proven by the reactivation of Auguste D. micropreparations in molecular biological studies over 100 years after their production. (shrink)

The existence of objective knowledge and the possibility of communicating it by means of language have traditionally been taken for granted by educators. Recent developments in the philosophy of science and the historical study of scientific accomplishments have deprived these presuppositions of their former plausibility. Sooner or later, this must have an effect on the teaching of science. In this paper I am presenting a brief outline of an alternative theory of knowing that takes into account the thinking organism's cognitive (...) isolation from 'reality'. This orientation was proposed by Vico at the beginning of the 18th century, disregarded for two hundred years, and then propounded independently by Piaget as a developmentally grounded constructivist epistemology. The paper focuses specifically on the adaptive function of cognition, Piaget's scheme theory, the process of communication, and the subjective perspective on social interaction. In the concluding section it then suggests some of the consequences the shift of epistemological presuppositions might have for the practice of teaching. (shrink)

This book researches how dispositions are a key indicator in teacher success both in terms of instructional effectiveness and long term retention giving examples and support strategies on how to implement these qualities and characteristics into a robust curriculum.

Realists about fictional entities often distinguish the properties that a fictional character has and the properties a character holds. Roughly, this is the distinction between the properties that a character really possesses and the properties it fictionally possess. But despite the popularity of this distinction in realist circles, it gives rise to a number of subtle issues about which fictional realists can and do disagree. In this paper, we aim to clarify these issues and defend three related theses. One: that (...) to say that Hermione holds the property of being female is just to say that the singular proposition ⟨Hermione, being female⟩ is true according to Harry Potter. Two: that ordinary objects can hold properties insofar as propositions like ⟨Napoleon, being French⟩ can be true according to fictions like War and Peace. Three: that the distinction between having and holding should not be thought to play any semantic role within the context of fictional realism. (shrink)