When attempting to predict future events, people commonly rely on historical data. One psychological characteristic of judgmental forecasting of time series, established by research, is that when people make forecasts from series, they tend to underestimate future values for upward trends and overestimate them for downward ones, so-called trend-damping. Events in a time series can be experienced sequentially, or they can also be retrospectively viewed simultaneously, not experienced individually in real time. In one experiment, we studied the influence of presentation (...) mode on two sorts of judgment: predictions of the next event and estimation of the average value of all the events in the presented series. Participants' responses in dynamic mode were anchored on more recent events than in static mode for all types of judgment but with different consequences; hence, dynamic presentation improved prediction accuracy, but not estimation. These results are not anticipated by existing theoretical accounts; we develop and present an agent-based model—the adaptive anchoring model —to account for the difference between processing sequences of dynamically and statically presented stimuli. ADAM captures how variation in presentation mode produces variation in responses in both forecasting and judgment tasks. ADAM's model predictions for the forecasting and judgment tasks fit better with the response data than a linear-regression time series model. Moreover, ADAM outperformed autoregressive-integrated-moving-average and exponential-smoothing models, while neither of these models accounts for people's responses on the average estimation task. (shrink)

According to the foundations of economic theory, agents have stable and coherent preferences that guide their choices among alternatives. However, people are constrained by information-processing and memory limitations and hence have a propensity to avoid cognitive load. We propose that this in turn will encourage them to respond to preferences and goals influenced by context and memory representations.

In the last decade, a number of studies in the behavioural sciences, particularly in psychology and economics, have explored the complexity of individual risk behaviour and its underlying factors. Most previous studies have examined the influences of various socio-economic, cognitive, biological and psychological factors on human decision-making however, the relationship between the decision-makers’ risk preferences and occupational background has not received much empirical attention. Accordingly, in the current study, we investigated how occupational background, together with decision-making framing (e.g., variations in (...) decision domain, context, presentation of risk and utility ratios), influence participants’ risk preferences for decision options with equivalent expected utility. Our novel findings indicate that risk preferences may vary among individuals from different occupational backgrounds. As such, when the task was framed in gain terms, participants who mostly deal with health/safety-related risks on a day-to-day basis (high-risk occupations) were predominantly risk-averse (avoiding risky options), while participants who mostly deal with financial/social risks (white-collar occupations) were prone to risk-seeking behaviour (avoiding certain options). Specifically, in “high-risk” occupations, participants’ pattern of choices changed from risk-averse in gain scenarios to risk-seeking in loss scenarios. However, the opposite pattern of risk preferences was found in participants with “white-collar” occupations. Our findings indicate that decision-makers’ occupational backgrounds influence risk preferences under some circumstances. (shrink)

Ch. 1. V sveta na zhivota i na filosofii︠a︡ta -- ch. 2. Filosofii︠a︡ta, politikata i bŭdeshteto -- ch. 3. Prekhodŭt. Parlamentŭt "Otvŭtre".

Ovaj tekst, kao nastavak našega promišljanja o dispozicijama za pedagogično djelovanje, kritička je refleksija vlastite profesionalne svakodnevice u kojoj detektiramo brojne dileme vezane za svrhu pedagoške profesije. Točke prijepora, poput – biti neutralna ili angažirana, graditi distanciran ili prisan pedagoški odnos, prioritizirati vlastitu ili tuđu dobrobit, odbijati ili prihvaćati sukob kao potencijalni agens promjene – izmještamo iz hodnika, predavaonica i učionica u kojima bivamo te, izlazeći time iz komforne zone nepromišljanja o njima, apostrofiramo ambivalentnu pojavnost dihotomije javno–privatno u skrivenome kurikulumu (...) tih prostora. Promatrajući dispozicije kao za autonomno pedagogično pedagoško djelovanje prediktivna uvjerenja i osobine razvijajućega karaktera, u radu zagovaramo napuštanje shvaćanja pedagoginja kao neutralnih profesionalki apstrahiranih od osobnih uvjerenja, kvaliteta i ograničenja te u fokus stavljamo etičnost, refleksivnost i autentičnost kao temeljne dispozicije za pedagogično djelovanje usmjereno k podupiranju mogućega i transformativnoga u pedagoškome odnosu. Rad zaključujemo promišljanjem odgovornosti studijā pedagogije i samih pedagoginja za kultiviranje opisanih dispozicija. This text, as a continuation of our reflections on dispositions for pedagogical practice, is a critical reflection on our everyday working life, in which we detect numerous dilemmas related to the goal of the pedagogical profession. We move points of contention – such as being neutral or engaged, building a distanced or close pedagogical relationship, prioritising one’s own benefit or that of others, rejecting or accepting conflict as a potential agent of change – out of the halls and classrooms in which we spend time and, breaching the comfort zone of not thinking about them, accent the apparently ambivalent dichotomy of public and private in the hidden curriculum of these spaces. By conceptualizing dispositions as evolving predictive beliefs and personal traits, the paper advocates abandoning the view of pedagogues as neutral professionals devoid of personal beliefs, qualities, and limitations, instead focusing on ethics, reflexivity, and authenticness as the basic dispositions for pedagogical practice directed towards supporting the possible and transformative in the pedagogical relationship. The paper concludes with a consideration of the responsibility of pedagogy programmes and pedagogues themselves in cultivating the aforementioned dispositions. (shrink)

This text, as a continuation of our reflections on dispositions for pedagogical practice, is a critical reflection on our everyday working life, in which we detect numerous dilemmas related to the goal of the pedagogical profession. We move points of contention – such as being neutral or engaged, building a distanced or close pedagogical relationship, prioritising one’s own benefit or that of others, rejecting or accepting conflict as a potential agent of change – out of the halls and classrooms in (...) which we spend time and, breaching the comfort zone of not thinking about them, accent the apparently ambivalent dichotomy of public and private in the hidden curriculum of these spaces. By conceptualizing dispositions as evolving predictive beliefs and personal traits, the paper advocates abandoning the view of pedagogues as neutral professionals devoid of personal beliefs, qualities, and limitations, instead focusing on ethics, reflexivity, and authenticness as the basic dispositions for pedagogical practice directed towards supporting the possible and transformative in the pedagogical relationship. The paper concludes with a consideration of the responsibility of pedagogy programmes and pedagogues themselves in cultivating the aforementioned dispositions. (shrink)

In this article I discuss 'the transition' of Lithuanian health care. In order to illustrate the size of the difficulties the people of Lithuania presently face, I focus in particular on the problem of resource allocation. I believe my observations (both general and particular) reflect the experiences of other post-socialist countries, especially those nations which were directly incorporated within the former USSR. Certainly, the two other Baltic states -- Latvia and Estonia -- have a great deal in common with Lithuania, (...) both politically and culturally. I have identified four questions to act as a framework for my discussion: -/- • What were the main causes of the Soviet health care crisis? -/- • What was the basis for resource allocation in the former socialist health care system? -/- • What are the major obstacles set against the implementation of alternative principles of resource allocation in Lithuania? -/- • What ideas might underlie and inform the design of a new Lithuanian health care system? (shrink)