Reichenbach’s ‘principle of the common cause’ is a foundational assumption of some important recent contributions to quantitative social science methodology but no similar principle appears in econometrics. Angrist et al. has argued that the principle is necessary for instrumental variables methods in econometrics, and Angrist Krueger builds a framework using it that he proposes as a means of resolving an important methodological dispute among econometricians. Through analysis of instrumental variables methods and the issue of multicollinearity, we aim to (...) show that the relationship of the principle to econometric methods is more nuanced than implied by previous work but nevertheless may make a valuable contribution to the coherence and validity of existing methods. (shrink)

Reichenbach's 'principle of the common cause' is a foundational assumption of some important recent contributions to quantitative social science methodology but no similar principle appears in econometrics. Reiss (2005) has argued that the principle is necessary for instrumental variables methods in econometrics, and Pearl (2009) builds a framework using it that he proposes as a means of resolving an important methodological dispute among econometricians. We aim to show, through analysis of the main problem instrumental variables methods are used (...) to resolve, that the relationship of the principle to econometric methods is more nuanced than implied by previous work, but nevertheless may make a valuable contribution to the coherence and validity of existing methods. (shrink)

Experimental data on social preferences present a number of features that need to be incorporated in econometric modelling. We explore a variety of econometric modelling approaches to the analysis of such data. The approaches under consideration are: the Random Utility approach ; the Random Behavioural approach ; and the Random Preference approach. These approaches are applied in various ways to an experiment on fairness conducted by Cappelen et al. :818–827, 2007). Various models that we estimate succeed in capturing the key (...) features of the dataset. Conclusions concerning fairness-related behaviour depend crucially on the choice of econometric model. (shrink)

The purpose of the study is to establish a causal relationship of job satisfaction depending on the average number of employees, the level of wages, the number of applications and the time factor. The article deals with the problem of modeling socio-economic satisfaction with the work of employees in the provision of public services. Based on the correlation analysis, linear and nonlinear models of the interrelationships of factors related to this problem are formed. Econometric models have been developed to effectively (...) assess the level of satisfaction of employees in the provision of public services. The scientific novelty lies in the study of new models that are statistically superior to domestic developments in this field of activity. As a result, the most significant factors affecting the level of job satisfaction were identified. (shrink)

The purpose of the study is to determine the relationship between the economic well-being of countries and their openness to external markets. The scientific novelty consists in the comparison of two groups of countries with different characteristics and identifying specific patterns of the impact of selected macroeconomic factors on GDP. The article presents an econometric analysis and contains regression equations for each state. Interpretation of the coefficients of the derived models makes it possible to estimate changes in GDP with the (...) change of indicators. As a result, it was revealed that export is the most stable and strongly influencing the economy of all countries macroeconomic factor, and the strength of influence depends on the level of development of the country. The stability of GDP in developing countries is largely achieved through the regulation of internal factors, and in developed countries through exports regulation. (shrink)

The book covers both the theory and the applications aspects of econometric theory with reference to India/developing countries. It is comprehensive in its coverage of topics, contains exercises and solved examples and uses applications, detailed illustrative examples from the Indian economy, and data, both from India and the West.Twenty-three chapters spread over eight parts take students from methodology to the statistical foundations and then lead into general models, advanced econometrics, and the newer areas of study.

The purpose of the study is to establish a causal relationship between job satisfaction in the field of education in the Russian Federation, depending on the satisfaction with: working conditions; opportunities for professional growth; remuneration. The article deals with the problem of modeling socio-economic satisfaction with work in the field of education. Based on the correlation analysis, linear and nonlinear models of the interrelationships of factors related to this problem are formed. Econometric models have been developed to effectively assess the (...) level of job satisfaction of employees employed in the field of education. The scientific novelty lies in the study of new models that are statistically superior to domestic developments in this field of activity. As a result, the most significant factors affecting the level of job satisfaction were identified. (shrink)

Ragnar Frisch received the first Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Science together with Jan Tinbergen in 1969 for having played an important role in ensuring that mathematical techniques figure prominently in modern economic analysis. Frisch was also a co-founder of the Econometric Society in 1930, the inaugural editor of its journal Econometrica for over 20 years, and a major figure in Norwegian academic life. This collection of essays derived from the centennial symposium which marked Frisch's birth explores his contributions to (...) econometrics and other key fields in the discipline as well as the results of new research. Contributors include eminent scholars from Europe, the United Kingdom and North America who investigate themes in utility measurement, production theory, microeconomic policy, econometric methods, macrodynamics, and macroeconomic planning. (shrink)

Introduction. The fourth industrial revolution significantly changes the structure of economic relations and transforms the importance of factors in the development of territories. The purpose of the article is to identify the most significant factors in the regional development of the Ural macro region in the context of the fourth industrial revolution and to determine the directions of impacts to ensure the competitiveness and long-term growth of territories. Methods. The methodological basis of the study is based on a set of (...) scientific approaches to economic growth, concepts of regional and institutional economics. Research methods include regional, comparative and econometric factor analysis. Scientific novelty of the study. A method for identifying the significance of factors in the development of regions is proposed and the key factors for developing the subjects of the Ural macro region in the context of the fourth industrial revolution are established. The study contributes to the scientific debate on the meaning and management of institutional development factors. Results. The author presents the results of diagnosing the regulatory environment and geographic factors of the subjects of the Ural macro region. An econometric analysis of their impact on economic development has been carried out. The statistical significance for developing the volume of mining and the quality of the legal environment in the regions has been established. Informal institutions (the authors explain the phenomenon by weak differentiation of cultural characteristics and business practices of regions due to their historical connectivity) and transport and geographical location (due to a decrease in spatial influence and an increase in the role of digital technologies in production chains in Industry 4.0). Conclusions. In the Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk regions, it was possible to ensure higher values of GRP per capita due to a favorable regulatory environment. In general, in the Russian regions in the second decade of the 21st century, the raw material orientation remains (among the studied objects, the economies of the Orenburg region and Udmurtia are the most extractive). To ensure the country’s long-term development, it is necessary to create a favorable business climate: improving the legal environment in the areas outlined in the study, increasing the level of trust and reducing the level of corruption. (shrink)

Econometric Theory and Methods International Edition provides a unified treatment of modern econometric theory and practical econometric methods. The geometrical approach to least squares is emphasized, as is the method of moments, which is used to motivate a wide variety of estimators and tests. Simulation methods, including the bootstrap, are introduced early and used extensively. The book deals with a large number of modern topics. In addition to bootstrap and Monte Carlo tests, these include sandwich covariance matrix estimators, artificial regressions, (...) estimating functions and the generalized method of moments, indirect inference, and kernel estimation. Every chapter incorporates numerous exercises, some theoretical, some empirical, and many involving simulation. (shrink)

Originally published in 1981, this book considers one particular area of econometrics- the linear model- where significant recent advances have been made. It considers both single and multiequation models with varying co-efficients, explains the various theories and techniques connected with these and goes on to describe the various applications of the models. Whilst the detailed explanation of the models will interest primarily econometrics specialists, the implications of the advances outlined and the applications of the models will intrest a (...) wide range of economists. (shrink)

Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.

Cartwright and Humphreys have suggested theories of probabilistic causation for singular events, which are based on modifications of traditional causal linear modelling. On the basis of her theory, Cartwright offered an allegedly local, and non-factorizable, common-cause model for the EPR experiment. In this paper I consider Cartwright's and Humphreys' theories. I argue that, provided plausible assumptions obtain, local models for EPR in the framework of these theories are committed to Bell inequalities, which are violated by experiment.

Sharpe’s ratio is the most widely used index for establishing an order of priority for the portfolios to which the investor has access, and the purpose of this investigation is to verify that Sharpe’s ratio allows decisions to be made in investment portfolios considering different financial market conditions. The research is carried out by autoregressive model of the financial series of returns using Sharpe’s ratio for evaluations looking over the priority of financial assets which the investor can access while observing (...) the effects that can cause autocorrelated series in evaluation measures for financial assets. The results presented in this study confirm the hypothesis proposed in which Sharpe’s ratio allows decisions to be made in the selection of investment portfolios under normal conditions thanks to the definition of a robustness function, whose empirical estimation shows an average 73% explanation of the variance in the degradation of the Spearman coefficient for each of the performance measures; however, given the presence of autocorrelation in the financial series of returns, this similarity is broken. (shrink)

The difficulty of conducting relevant experiments has long been regarded as the central challenge to learning about the economy from data. The standard solution, going back to Haavelmo's famous “The Probability Approach in Econometrics” (1944), involved two elements: first, it placed substantial weight on a priori theory as a source of structural information, reducing econometric estimates to measurements of causally articulated systems; second, it emphasized the need for an appropriate statistical model of the data. These elements are usually seen (...) as tightly linked. I argue that they are, to a large extent, separable. Careful attention to the role of an empirically justified statistical model in underwriting probability explains puzzles not only in economics, but more generally with respect to recent criticisms of Reichenbach's principle of the common cause, which lies behind graph-theoretic causal search algorithms. And it provides an antidote to the pessimistic understanding of the possibilities for passive observation of causal structure in econometrics and related areas of Nancy Cartwright and others. (shrink)

Social research, from economics to demography and epidemiology, makes extensive use of statistical models in order to establish causal relations. The question arises as to what guarantees the causal interpretation of such models. In this paper we focus on econometrics and advance the view that causal models are ‘augmented’ statistical models that incorporate important causal information which contributes to their causal interpretation. The primary objective of this paper is to argue that causal claims are established on the basis of (...) a plurality of evidence. We discuss the consequences of ‘evidential pluralism’ in the context of econometric modelling. (shrink)

Econometrics applies statistical methods to study economic phenomena. Roughly, by means of equations, econometricians typically account for the response variable in terms of a number of explanatory variables. The question arises under what conditions econometric models can be given a causal interpretation. By drawing the distinction between associational models and causal models, the paper argues that a proper use of background knowledge, three distinct types of assumptions (statistical, extra-statistical, and causal), and the hypothetico-deductive methodology provide sufficient conditions for a (...) causal interpretation of econometric models. (shrink)

The objective of the paper is threefold. First, to argue that some of Haavelmo's methodological ideas and insights have been neglected because they are largely at odds with the traditional perspective that views empirical modeling in economics as an exercise in curve-fitting. Second, to make a case that this neglect has contributed to the unreliability of empirical evidence in economics that is largely due to statistical misspecification. The latter affects the reliability of inference by inducing discrepancies between the actual and (...) nominal error probabilities. Third, to argue that the ‘bridge pier’ between theory and data, as envisaged by Haavelmo, T [The Probability Approach to Econometrics, Econometrica, 12, 1–115], can be completed by blending some of his key methodological ideas and insights into a refined/extended version of the frequentist approach to inference. This new perspective is used to revisit dynamic stochastic general equilibrium modeling in an attempt to bring.. (shrink)

For an economist, ultimate goals of neuroeconomic research include improving economic policy analysis. One path toward this goal is to use neuroeconomic data to advance economic theory, and productive efforts have been made towards that end. Equally important, though less studied, is how neuroeconomics can provide quantitative evidence on policy, and in particular the way in which it might inform structural econometric inference. This paper is a first step in that direction. We suggest here that key forms of preference (or (...) decision strategy) heterogeneity can be identified by brain imaging studies and, consequently, linked stochastically to observable individual characteristics. Then, recognizing that brain-imaging studies are substantially costly, we derive conditions under which the probabilistic link between observable characteristics and type, a quantity critical to policy analysis, can be estimated more precisely by combining data from traditional and brain-based decision studies. (shrink)

This three volume set contains papers presented at the Seventh World Congress of the Econometric Society. The first volume contains three papers presented at the Seventh World Congress of the Econometric Society which summarize and interpret key recent developments and discuss current and future directions in a wide range of topics in economics and econometrics. They cover both theory and applications. Authored by leading specialists in their fields, these volumes provide a unique survey of progress in the discipline. The (...) second volume comprising three papers which examine the latest developments in economic theory, applied economics and econometrics presented at the Seventh World Congress of the Econometric Society in Tokyo in August 1995. The topics were carefully selected to represent the most active fields in the discipline over the past five years. Written by the leading authorities in their fields, each paper provides a unique survey of the current state of knowledge in economics. Designed to make the material accessible to a general audience of economists, these volumes should be helpful to anyone with a good undergraduate training in economics who wishes to follow new ideas and tendencies in the subject. The third of three volumes contains papers presented at the Seventh World Congress of the Econometric Society. The papers summarize and interpret key recent developments and discuss current and future directions in a wide range of topics in economics and econometrics. They cover both theory and applications. Authored by leading specialists in their fields, these volumes provide a unique survey of progress in the discipline. (shrink)

The small sample properties of estimators and tests are frequently too complex to be useful or are unknown. Much econometric theory is therefore developed for very large or asymptotic samples where it is assumed that the behaviour of estimators and tests will adequately represent their properties in small samples. Refined asymptotic methods adopt an intermediate position by providing improved approximations to small sample behaviour using asymptotic expansions. Dedicated to the memory of Michael Magdalinos, whose work is a major contribution to (...) this area, this book contains chapters directly concerned with refined asymptotic methods. In addition, there are chapters focusing on new asymptotic results; the exploration through simulation of the small sample behaviour of estimators and tests in panel data models; and improvements in methodology. With contributions from leading econometricians, this collection will be essential reading for researchers and graduate students concerned with the use of asymptotic methods in econometric analysis. (shrink)

This is a set of three volumes containing edited versions of papers and commentaries presented in invited symposium sessions of the Eighth World Congress of the Econometric Society. The papers summarize and interpret recent key developments and discuss future directions in a wide range of topics in economics and econometrics. The papers cover both theory and applications. Written by leading specialists in their fields, these volumes provide a unique survey of progress in the discipline.

This is the first of three volumes containing edited versions of papers and commentaries presented in invited symposium sessions of the Eighth World Congress of the Econometric Society. The papers summarize and interpret recent key developments and discuss future directions in a wide range of topics in economics and econometrics. The papers cover both theory and applications. Written by leading specialists in their fields these volumes provide a unique survey of progress in the discipline.

This is the second of three volumes containing edited versions of papers and commentaries presented in invited symposium sessions of the Eighth World Congress of the Econometric Society. The papers summarize and interpret key developments and discuss future directions in a wide range of topics in economics and econometrics. The papers cover both theory and applications. Written by leading specialists in their fields, these volumes provide a unique survey of progress in the discipline.

This is the third of three volumes containing edited versions of papers and commentaries presented in invited symposium sessions of the Eighth World Congress of the Econometric Society. The papers summarize and interpret recent developments and discuss future directions in a wide range of topics in economics and econometrics. The papers cover both theory and applications. Written by leading specialists in their fields, these volumes provide a unique survey of progress in the discipline.

This research article was championed as a way of providing discourses pertaining to the concept of "Critical Realism (CR)" approach, which is amongst many othe forms of competing postmodern philosophical concepts for the engagement of dialogical discourses in the area of established econonetric methodologies for effective policy prescription in the economic science discipline. On the the whole, there is no doubt surrounding the value of empirical endeavours in econometrics to address real world economic problems, but equally so, the heavy (...) weighted use and reliance on mathematical contents as a way of justifying its scientific base seemed to be loosing traction of the intended focus of economics when it comes to confronting real world problems in the domain of social interaction. In this vein, the construction of mixed methods discourse(s), which favour that of CR philosophy is hereby suggested in this article as a way forward in confronting with issues raised by critics of mainstream economics and other professionals in the postmodern era. (shrink)

The most plausible of Yarkoni's paths to recovery for psychology is the least radical one: psychologists need truly quantitative methods that exploit the informational power of variance and heterogeneity in multiple variables. If they drop ambitions to explain entire behaviors, they could find a box full of design and econometric tools in the parts of experimental economics that don't ape psychology.

현대의 사회과학에서 질적 연구는 양적(계량적) 연구에 비해 그 영역과 방법이 상당히 모호한 것으로 여겨져 왔다. 질적 연구는 양적 연구의 변수나 가설을 구축하기 위한 전(前)계량적 준비의 단계로 간주되기도 한다. 하지만 ‘현상학적인’ 질적 연구에 대해 말하자면, 후설과 하이데거가 열어놓은, 계량화 할 수 없는 ‘생생한 체험’의 영역을 탐구한다는 고유한 위상을 가질 수 있다. 한국에 거주하는 외국인 학생 두 명을 심층 인터뷰해서, 그들이 사는 ‘지역’인 ‘한국’을 현상학적인 방법으로 탐구해보았다. ‘생생한 체험’의 논리로서 하이데거의 ‘시간성’을 적용해서, 그들 각각의 시간성의 지평에서 어떤 미래투사와 어떤 과거회수 사이에 어떤 (...) 의미로서 ‘한국’을 현전화하고 있는지 해석하였다. 그 결과, ‘한국’을 ‘조국의 근대화를 위한 모델’과, ‘자유로운 삶에 눈뜨게 해주는 곳’으로 체험하고 있다는 것이 드러났다. ‘한국’의 이런 다채로운 의미모습은 계량적인 방법으로는 결코 발굴될 수 없는 것이다. (shrink)

In economics, thought experiments are frequently justified by the difficulty of conducting controlled experiments. They serve several functions, such as establishing causal facts, isolating tendencies, and allowing inferences from models to reality. In this paper, I argue that thought experiments served a further function in economics: facilitating the quantitative definition and measurement of the theoretical concept of utility, thereby bridging the gap between theory and statistical data. I support my argument by a case study, the “hypothetical experiments” of the Norwegian (...) economist Ragnar Frisch (1895-1973). Frisch aimed to eliminate introspection and a subjective concept of utility from economic reasoning. At the same time, he sought behavioral foundations for economic theory that enabled quantitative reasoning. By using thought experiments to justify his set of choice axioms and facilitating the operationalization of utility, Frisch circumvented the problem of observing utility via actual experiments without eliminating the concept of utility from economic theory altogether. As such, these experiments helped Frisch to empirically support the theory’s most important results, such as the laws of demand and supply, without the input of new empirical findings. I suggest that Frisch’s experiments fulfill the main characteristics of thought experiments. (shrink)

The relationship between a class of structural forms and a single reduced form econometric model is discussed. These are shown to be empirically equivalent. It is made clear that choice of a particular structural form for estimation, rather than another of the same class, rests on a priori heuristic and computational considerations, not on empirical or logical grounds. Alternative scientific strategies are discussed briefly.

This book provides a methodological perspective on understanding the essential roles of econometric models in the theory and practice. Offering a comprehensive and comparative exposition of the accounts of models in both econometrics and philosophy of science, this work shows how econometrics and philosophy of science are interconnected while exploring the methodological insight of econometric modelling that can be added to modern philosophical thought. The notion of structure is thoroughly discussed throughout the book. The studies of the consumption (...) function of Trygve Haavelmo, Richard Stone, Milton Friedman, David Hendry and Robert Lucas are taken as the case studies to investigate their methodological implications of model and structure. In addition to the semantic view of the scientific theories, various philosophical accounts concerning scientific models are used to shed light on the methodological nature of these consumption studies in economics. This book will be of great interest to scholars and students of methodology of economics and econometrics as well as anyone interested in the philosophy of science in an economic context. (shrink)

This paper looks at an appeal to the authority of biomedical research that has recently been used by empirical economists to motivate and justify their methods. I argue that those who make this appeal mistake the nature of biomedical research. Randomised trials, which are said to have revolutionised biomedical research, are a central methodology, but according to only one paradigm. There is another paradigm at work in biomedical research, the inferentialist paradigm, in which randomised trials play no special role. I (...) outline the inferentialist alternative in broad strokes, apply it to a recent controversy in econometrics and draw some general conclusions concerning econometric methodology. (shrink)

This study aims to shed light on the relationship between individual and regional Christian religion and individual sustainable behaviors in an exploratory manner, with a special focus on sustainable consumption and investment decisions. To this end, we econometrically analyze online representative survey data that contains information on the self-reported importance of the consideration of ecological and social/ethical criteria in the context of a large variety of individual behaviors. The target group are financial decisions makers in German households, i.e., important actors (...) in the largest economy in Europe. Results of the econometric analysis suggest that Christian religion is positively related to a variety of ecological and social/ethical activities. Our findings empirically support explanations postulating a positive relationship between Christian religion and environmental behavior, such as the stewardship hypothesis, rather than opposite theories like White’s :1203–1207, 1967) dominion hypothesis. Particularly, we find that both individual and regional measures for Christian religion positively affect various behaviors emphasizing the importance of individual and contextual norms for individual behavior. Hence, we provide empirical evidence for the importance of Christian religion for another country than the USA, which is typically in the focus of similar studies. Our results can be used for targeted information campaigns by politicians to enhance sustainable behaviors or acceptance for related policy measures. (shrink)

New Approaches to Monetary Economics brings together presentations of innovative research in the field of monetary economics. Much of this research develops and applies approaches to modelling financial intermediation, aggregate fluctuations, monetary aggregation and transactions-motivated monetary equilibrium. The contents of this volume comprise the proceedings of the second in a conference series entitled International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics. This conference was held in 1985 at the IC2 Institute at the University of Texas at Austin. The symposia in (...) this series are sponsored by the IC2 Institute and the RGK Foundation. New Approaches to Monetary Economics, edited by Professors William A. Barnett and Kenneth J. Singleton, consists of five parts. Part I examines transactions-motivated monetary holding in general equilibrium; Part II, financial intermediation; Part III, monetary aggregation theory, Part IV, issues in aggregate fluctuation; and Part V, theoretical issues in the foundations of monetary economics and macroeconomics. (shrink)

It is common, following Quine, to look to what theories say to determine the ontological commitments of a scientific discipline. But methods and practices are equally telling. This paper considers early doctrines in econometrics. It argues that what is directly confirmed in tests of the theory will not support the applications to which the theory is to be put unless we can assume a kind of stability and atomism characteristic of capacities. The leap from confirmation to application will only (...) be valid in a world where capacities are at work. (shrink)

This 1991 book is a selection of Jacques Drèze's work over the last decade on the topics of lasting unemployment, stagflation and unused capacity. At the theoretical level, the author has contributed to the formulation and analysis of general equilibrium models which allow for price rigidities and excess supply and lend themselves to econometric implementation, thus represents an attempt to integrate micro- and macroeconomics, and to use theory for empirical and policy purposes.