Business cycle theory is a broad and disparate field. Different schools of thought offer alternative explanations for cycles, often using different mathematical methods. This book provides academics and graduate students of economics with a compact and accessible exposition of business cycle theory since Keynes. The author places the main theories -- Keynesian economics, monetarism, new classical economics, the real business cycles theory, and new Keynesian economics -- in an historical context by presenting (...) them in the chronological order of their appearance and highlighting their differences and commonalities. He minimizes the necessary mathematical prerequisites by using a unifying mathematical approach: stochastic second-order difference equations, which is explained in detail. Throughout the book, the international dimension of business cycles is acknowledged. The theoretical results obtained are set alongside empirical facts in separate boxes. Each chapter finishes with a set of problems designed to deepen the reader's understanding of the theories presented, and further reading sections which provide access to related material. (shrink)

In this article, we first question the cogency of the strict delimitation of the object of study of economics in real business cycle theory and investigate its methodological and ontological consequences in the light of Roy Bhaskar's transcendental realism. We discuss the limits of real business cycle theory for detecting regularities, as well as the possibility of refuting conjectures. Finally, we show that our conclusions can be generalized to economic theories relying on the notion (...) of general equilibrium. (shrink)

This 1988 book presents a historical investigation of the theoretical development of contemporary Equilibrium Business Cycle Theory. The author examines the central features of the EBCT by tracing both the history of business cycle theory and the history of econometrics. These historical analyses make clear two central principles of the EBCT: its optimization foundation and its economic strategy. Following along these lines, the author argues that the EBCT succeeds the tradition of the Austrian (...) class='Hi'>cycle theory that attempted to incorporate the cycle with classical equilibrium doctrine. He further argues that the EBCT's econometric strategy is only a child of the Cowles commission method. Investigating interwar macroeconomics in very readable style, this book brings the period back into the heart of macroeconomic thinking. (shrink)

The Great Recession has brought with it a renewed interest in Hayek's business-cycle theory, which holds that loose monetary policy generates an unsustainable boom characterized by a lengthening of the capital structure. Hayek's theory has received robust criticism for decades, although the criticisms have varied in quality. Various empirical disconfirmations pose the most serious challenge. The small empirical literature on the subject generally confirms Hayek's predictions about variations in the capital structure, but has not persuasively linked (...) the capital structure to the business cycle. A better option, then, may be to abandon Hayek's business-cycle theory, preserve his capital theory, and graft it onto a Keynesian or monetarist understanding of the business cycle that is more consistent with modern macroeconomics. (shrink)

How well is Austrian business cycle theory corroborated by empirical evidence? This question is addressed by examining the contraction of 1990–1991 and the expansion leading up to it. An overview of the Austrian theory of the business cycle permits the identification of several empirical propositions implied by the theory. Empirical data for several economic variables are examined for consistency with the patterns suggested by the theory. The evidence suggests a muted Austrian cyclical (...) process at work in conjunction with other factors during the time period studied. (shrink)

abstract Cowen and I agree that rational‐expectations theory is unrealistic and that risk is difficult to quantify. However, we continue to disagree about the riskiness of consumption as opposed to investment. Since more investment might lead to a recession if investment is relatively risky, Cowen's use of rational‐expectations theory to buttress the Austrian school's claim that market economies can shift toward relatively more investment without experiencing macroeconomic disruption remains suspect.

Before being considered as independent fields, business cycles and productivity growth had long been regarded as closely interrelated dynamics. Growth and cycles theories and models developed independently. On one side, the growth analysis developed analyzing the existence and stability of a long-run deterministic growth path. On the other side, business cycles theory focused on the understanding of detrended data movements considering growth as an exogenous trend, independent of the cycle. This dichotomy is still present in the (...) modern literature. _Business Cycles and Growth Theory_ examines the role of monetary and financial factors in growth cycles dynamics interaction. It offers new perspectives for modelling growth cycles dynamics underlining the possibility of building an 'incomplete business cycles theory', as well as highlighting the existence of a convergence between the last theoretical developments of both growth and business cycles literatures. A significant read, this book demonstrates that such a convergence can provide benchmarks for a new paradigm of models in which endogenous growth mechanism, because it offers a strong propagation for shocks, can be the core of a new business cycles dynamics. (shrink)

The purpose of the article is to examine the post-pandemic business cycle in Poland and in the United States in the light of the Austrian business cycle theory. The study shows that this theory satisfactorily explains the post-pandemic business cycle. Moreover, it seems that the Austrian business cycle theory explains some important facts better than competing theories of business cycle. The analysis also indicates that the post-pandemic (...) class='Hi'>business cycle differs significantly in many respects from previous business cycles – and that these differences could be explained within the framework of the Austrian business cycle theory. (shrink)

This essay reviews the arguments made for a New Austrian theory of business cycles by Tyler Cowen, based on risk analysis and assuming rational expectations. This contrasts with the Old Austrian view that questions measurable risk in economic analysis. The way risk is applied to analyze business cycles suffers from serious inconsistencies. The use of rational expectations is mistaken in the face of economic complexity as understood by the traditional Austrians. However, Cowen is commended for his open-mindedness, (...) even as this leads him away from a strictly Austrian perspective. (shrink)

Tyler Cowen's “New Austrian” theory of business cycles is based on risk analysis and the assumption of rational expectations. This contrasts with the Old Austrian view, which questions the feasibility of measuring economic risk. Despite Cowen's admirable eclecticism, the way he applies risk analysis to business cycles suffers from serious inconsistencies, and his use of rational expectations is mistaken in the face of economic complexity—a phenomenon that was accurately understood by the traditional Austrians.

Real business cycle theory, as exemplified by Fischer Black's Business Cycles and Equilibrium, posits that business cycles are due to random?technology shocks,? and not to monetary, fiscal or other government policies. Rational expectations and complete markets are supposed to enable decision makers to avoid the costly mistakes that would otherwise result from policies that distort incentives to borrow and invest. This paper questions the assumptions of rational expectations and complete markets from an Austrian?school perspective. It (...) argues that decision makers economize on information costs by basing their plans at least in part on the actual prices observed in the course of doing business, and that government regulations have impinged on the evolution of markets, leaving them far from complete. (shrink)

Rosser's thoughtful and careful review of my book on business cycles reflects a different methodological stance than my own. I believe that economic theory and macroeconomics cannot escape using the concept of risk, even though, as Rosser points out, risk is not a simple unidimensional magnitude in many circumstances. I view the rational expectations assumption as a useful way of presenting a theory, rather than as a descriptive account of real‐world expectations.

This is the first volume in a new, definitive, seven-volume edition of the works of Michal Kalecki, one of the twentieth century's most distinguished economists. Kalecki was one of the three contemporary economists to arrive at the conclusions publicized by Keynes, although Kalecki arguably presented these views even earlier than Keynes. Volume I contains Kalecki's writings on the theory of the business cycle and full employment. His seminal Essay on the Business Cycle Theory is (...) preceded by his earlier theoretical studies and followed by publications which developed and defended its main concepts and ideas. This volume also contains the 1939 book Essays in the Theory of Economic Fluctuations, the work which established his reputation. Also included are papers documenting his confrontation with Keynes's General Theory, including Kalecki's review of that work, and his various studies on the theory and policies relating to full employment, both the well known `Political Aspects of Full Employment' and `Three Ways to Full Employment', and those which have unfairly received less attention. The editorial comments and annexes at the end of the volume, besides giving valuable information on the background to the main texts, include illuminating exchanges of correspondence between Kalecki and Keynes, Joan Robinson, and others. (shrink)

Minsky proposed classifying firms in three categories: hedge finance units which borrow no more than they are able to service in interest and principal out of operating cash flows, speculative finance units which are overleveraged to the point where they can service interest on their debt out of operating cash flows, but cannot repay the principal, and thus must continually roll over their existing debt, and Ponzi finance units, whose operating cash flows are inadequate even to service interest on their (...) debt. In Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis protracted prosperity leads endogenously to firms overleveraging themselves and transforming a market dominated by hedge finance into one dominated by speculative and Ponzi finance. Since Ponzi finance units are forced to sell off assets to service their existing interest payments, once the market is sufficiently dominated by Ponzi finance units, this creates an oversupply of assets offered for sale, and the resulting debt deflation causes a financial crisis and drastic shortage of liquidity. It appears this crisis state can be brought about by a deceptively low critical mass of Ponzi and speculative finance units. This paper uses a large 2002–2009 quarterly data set of all publicly traded North American firms and foreign firms traded on North American exchanges, a total of 8,905 stocks. Financial ratios are used to classify these firms in each quarter according to Minsky’s FIH categories. Market value is used to weight the categories, and average betas are computed as measures of volatility. Results provide dramatic support for the FIH. The FIH is then reinterpreted in terms of Austrian business cycle theory, which depends on inflationary credit expansion to drive the unsustainable prosperity. According to Minsky’s FIH, unsustainable prosperity emerges endogenously as long periods of economic expansion make borrowers and lenders alike more willing to engage in investment activities for which they fail to see the inherent risk. It becomes clear that this process is amplified and exacerbated by credit expansion. Minsky’s FIH helps flesh out some of the missing dynamics of the malinvestment liquidation phase of ABC theory, and the two views turn out to be surprisingly complementary. (shrink)

The dynamics behaviors of Kaldor–Kalecki business cycle model with diffusion effect and time delay under the Neumann boundary conditions are investigated. First the conditions of time-independent and time-dependent stability are investigated. Then, we find that the time delay can give rise to the Hopf bifurcation when the time delay passes a critical value. Moreover, the normal form of Hopf bifurcations is obtained by using the center manifold theorem and normal form theory of the partial differential equation, which (...) can determine the bifurcation direction and the stability of the periodic solutions. Finally, numerical results not only validate the obtained theorems, but also show that the diffusion coefficients play a key role in the spatial pattern. With the diffusion coefficients increasing, different patterns appear. (shrink)

It is currently common practice in social and business research, to lift concepts and theories from one country context—and extending the validity of the results—using them in another. This paper discusses the question relating to such generalisability in the context of global, innovative industries. Statistical methods are applied to compare results of a quantitative investigation of firm life-cycle theory between two developed countries. Such comparison implemented with statistical rigour on a quantitative basis is not common, and difficult (...) to execute. Results show that even though life-cycle theory has been found meaningful and valid on both country-specific populations, the quantitative comparison of these results has highlighted a substantial amount of statistically significant differences. This leads to the conclusion that extension of social theory between various country contexts needs to consider a variety of contextual parameters, cautioning computer scientists offering solutions to various problems around the world coming from their own, unique, country-specific perspectives to keep an open mind. (shrink)

This book presents the first full-length explanation in English of Heinsohn and Steiger's groundbreaking theory of money and interest, which emphasizes the role played by private property rights. Ownership economics gives an alternative explanation of money and interest, proposing that operations enabled by property lead to interest and money, rather than exchange of goods. Like any other approach, it has to answer economic theory's core question: what is the loss that has to be compensated by interest? Ownership economics (...) accepts neither a temporary loss of goods, as in neoclassical economics, nor Keynes's temporary loss of already existing, exogenous money as the cause of interest. Rather, money is created as a non-physical title to property in a credit contract secured by a debtor's collateral and the creditor's net worth. This book is an edited English translation of a highly successful German text, and offers the first book-length treatment of a theory which has received much interest since its first appearance in articles in the late 1970s. (shrink)

The paper aims to explore what it means for something to be a social cycle, for a theory to be a social cycle theory, and to offer a suggestion for a simple, yet, we believe, fundamentally grounded schema for categorizing them. We show that a broad range of cycle theories can be described within the concept of disruption and adjustments. Further, many important cycle theories are true endogenous social cycle theories in which the (...) theory provides a reason why the cycle should recur. We find that many social cycle theories fit with a two-population disruption and adjustment model similar to the well-known predator-prey model. This implies that a general modeling framework could be established for creating agent-based models of many social cycle theories. (shrink)

This article advances sustainability towards a new logic that favors the flourishing of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and well-being from North to South. It presents a Global Dual-Perspective (GDP) and a Dynamic Equilibrium Framework (DEF) that inform sustainability, management, and international business with a paradoxical view of the SDGs and a strengthened analysis that outlines the role of multinational enterprises (MNEs) in addressing the SDGs within and across the North–South. This article reveals that organizations will effectively unleash virtuous cycles (...) of SDGs and well-being when confronting and juxtaposing environmental, health, social, economic, and law-oriented goals. Furthermore, virtuous cycles will be more successful when splitting and integrating short- and long-term conflicting goals within and across the North–South to fuel systemic resilience and sustainable development. (shrink)

F.A. Hayek essentially quit economic theory and gave up the phenomena of industrial fluctuations as an explicit object of theoretical investigation following the publication of his last work in technical economics, 1941’s The Pure Theory of Capital. Nonetheless, several of Hayek’s more methodologically-oriented writings bear important implications for economic phenomena, especially those of industrial fluctuations. Decisions (usually, for Hayek, of a political nature) taken on the basis of a “pretence” of knowledge impede the operation of the price system’s (...) belief-coordinating function and thereby contribute to episodes of economic disequilibrium. Moreover, this later account – which I call Hayek’s epistemic theory of industrial fluctuations – implies certain aspects of his earlier theory. The two accounts are connected in virtue of the role that ignorance and the limits of human knowledge play in each. Indeed, it turns out that – substantively, if not methodologically – Hayek’s early theory of the cycle is a special case of the more general epistemic account. (shrink)

Arriving at a moral judgment is not a straightforward or linear process in which ethical theories are simply applied to cases. Instead it is a process in which the formulation of the moral problem, the formulation of possible “solutions”, and the ethical judging of these solutions go hand in hand. This messy character of moral problems, however, does not rule out a systematic approach. In this article, we describe a systematic approach to problem solving that does justice to the complex (...) nature of moral problems and ethical judgment: the ethical cycle. Our goal is to provide a structured and disciplined method of addressing moral problems, which helps to guide a sound analysis of these problems. We will illustrate the usefulness of this cycle with an example. Further, we will discuss two general issues in applied ethics in relation to the proposed ethical cycle: the role of ethical theories and the place of individual judgment versus collective deliberation. (shrink)

Different stages of the product and industry life cycle has been argued to be an important factor in shaping firms’ strategic actions, as the life cycle influence the firms’ sales, profit, product innovation, marketing mix and differentiation strategies. Drawing on the theory of industry life cycle (ILC), this article examines how the ILC influences firms’ corporate social responsibility (CSR) performance in the context of global procurement transactions. The findings suggest that mature industries have much greater levels (...) of responsible procurement (RP) processes, compared to rapid growing and declining industries. The authors conclude that CSR in procurement transactions is a trait of changes in the strategic behaviour of firms, as they progress from the ILC stage of growth to maturity and decline, rather than being a by-product of supply chain sophistication, which also develops along the ILC. (shrink)

The Sustainable Development Goal of the United Nations related to reduced inequalities calls for greater economic inclusion of the poor. Yet, how business leaders grant economic opportunities and development to the poor is significantly under-researched. Extending burgeoning responsible leadership theory that promotes paradox-savvy leadership for building inclusive ventures through various actors, this study introduces new concepts of inclusive leadership that foster the economic inclusion of the poor from Amartya Sen’s capability approach perspective. By studying how leaders include the (...) poor in social businesses, we provide a fresh perspective of inclusive leadership as a personalized empowering cycle of economic–social–economic inclusion to close the gaps between the rich and poor in business and society. This perspective provides new territories of diversity and inclusion research for reduced inequality. (shrink)

A 22-month longitudinal study of (self)employed disabled workers (_Following the preference of the lead author who identifies as disabled, the linguistic self-presentation by our participants, the precedent of _(Hein and Ansari, Academy of Management Journal 65:749–783, 2022)_, and the clarification note included in Jammaers & Zanoni’s recent review of ableism _(Jammaers and Zanoni, Organization Studies 42:429–452, 2021)_, we chose, and consistently use, the term “disabled employees” throughout the paper. We do so to underscore the premise of the social model of (...) disability, which explains that “people are disabled first and foremost by society, not by their individual, biological impairment. To us this term most clearly highlights that it is society (and possibly organizations) that disable and oppress people with impairments, by preventing their access, integration and inclusion to all walks of life, making them ‘disabled’.” _(Jammaers and Zanoni, Organization Studies 42:429–452, 2021_: 448_)) models the growing centrality of the body in meaning-making. We inductively explain how body dramas of suffering or thriving initially instigate cycles of meaning deflation and inflation at work. Our disjunctive process model shows that, at the beginning of the pandemic, disabled workers performed either dramas of suffering or on dramas of thriving. However, as the global pandemic unfolded, disabled workers begun crafting composite dramas that deliberately juxtaposed thriving and suffering. This conjunctive process model stabilized meaning-making at work by acknowledging the duality of the disabled body, as both anomaly and asset. Our findings elaborate, and bridge, emerging theories of body work and recursive meaning-making to explain how disabled workers explicitly enroll their bodies to make meaning at work during periods of societal upheaval. (shrink)

Cognitive frames help companies make sense of the intrinsic tensions of sustainability issues and influence how they respond to calls for sustainability over time. Yet, cognitive frames have been investigated as a static feature and previous studies have overlooked the evolutionary dynamics that can lead an organization to change its own frame. This study observes the evolution of life cycle management implementation through the theory of cognitive frames. We conducted a longitudinal multiple case study of 10 SMEs involved (...) in a European‐funded project. Over a three‐year period we examined how cognitive approaches to sustainability issues changed according to different learning mindsets. A total of three cognitive frames and two learning mindsets were revealed from the analysis, thus providing two important contributions. First, cognitive frames are not static in time, but can change to give more importance to the environmental sustainability of a life cycle. Second, the type of learning mindsets that managers in SMEs share can trigger changes in organizational cognitive frames. (shrink)

Business Ethics: Theories, Methods, and Applications provides a new systematic approach to normative business ethics that covers the complex and various ethical challenges of modern business. It aims to train analytical thinking skills in the field of business ethics and to approach ethical issues in business in a rational and systematic way. The book develops a number of specific methods for business ethics analysis that are tailored for ethical decision-making in business and for (...) analysing complex ethical topics in business. The book discusses fundamental ethical questions regarding the meaning of business and the economy for the individual person, society, the environment, and people around the world. As a result, Business Ethics: Theories, Methods, and Applications develops normative guidelines for business in the 21st century and its fundamental challenges and will be key reading for undergraduate, postgraduate, and MBA students of business ethics, business strategy, business and society, and related fields. This second edition is fully updated to recognize the changing nature of ethics and corporate responsibility in a globalized world and include online support material. (shrink)

Socially responsible investing is a significant part of the U.S. equity market. Studies of the relationship between social performance and financialperformance have not considered the effect of business cycles, which is the main topic of this study. An SRI Fund of Funds is compared to the S&P 500 over two complete business cycles from 1991 to 2009. The SRI Fund of Funds had financial performance comparable to the S&P 500 during market contractions, but underperformed during market expansions. The (...) factors associated with SRI returns are examined using both the Fama-French 3-Factor Model and the Carhart 4-Factor Model. Momentum appears to be of special importance during market expansions. The implications of these findings for the field of SRI are examined. (shrink)

In the years following its publication, F.A. Hayek's pioneering work on business cycles was regarded as an important challenge to what was later known as Keynesian macroeconomics. Today, economists are once again paying heed to Hayek's thoughts. This volume bring together his work on what causes periods of boom and bust in the economy.

Schumpeter's writings on the transition from capitalism to socialism, on innovative entrepreneurship, on business cycles, and on the modern corporation have attracted much attention among social scientists. Although Schumpeter's theoretical and sociological writings resemble the works of Marx, Durkheim, and Weber in that they further our understanding of the rise and nature of modern society, his contribution to social theory has yet to be assessed systematically. Arguing that Schumpeter's perspective, if understood in social theoretical terms, provides a promising (...) starting point for the sociological analysis of the changing relationship between economy and society, I concentrate on two elements of his work that are of value to theoretical sociology today: the distinction between creative action and rational action that is fundamental to his theory of the entrepreneur, and his thesis that the success of the capitalist system leads to its demise. (shrink)

In The Equilibrium Manifold, noted economic scholar and major contributor to the theory of general equilibrium Yves Balasko argues that, contrary to what many textbooks want readers to believe, the study of the general equilibrium model did not end with the existence and welfare theorems of the 1950s. These developments, which characterize the modern phase of the theory of general equilibrium, led to what Balasko calls the postmodern phase, marked by the reintroduction of differentiability assumptions and the application (...) of the methods of differential topology to the study of the equilibrium equation. Balasko's rigorous study demonstrates the central role played by the equilibrium manifold in understanding the properties of the Arrow-Debreu model and its extensions. Balasko argues that the tools of differential topology articulated around the concept of equilibrium manifold offer powerful methods for studying economically important issues, from existence and uniqueness to business cycles and economic fluctuations. After an examination of the theory of general equilibrium's evolution in the hundred years between Walras and Arrow-Debreu, Balasko discusses the properties of the equilibrium manifold and the natural projection. He highlights the important role of the set of no-trade equilibria, the structure of which is applied to the global structure of the equilibrium manifold. He also develops a geometric approach to the study of the equilibrium manifold. Applications include stability issues of adjustment dynamics for out-of-equilibrium prices, the introduction of price-dependent preferences, and aspects of time and uncertainty in extensions of the general equilibrium model that account for various forms of market frictions and imperfections. Special effort has been made at reducing the mathematical technicalities without compromising rigor. The Equilibrium Manifold makes clear the ways in which the postmodern" developments of the Arrow-Debreu model improve our understanding of modern market economies. (shrink)

The occurrence of business cycles is a feature of every economic system, so they were also observed in Poland. The article is an attempt to assess the structure and most important morphological features of the business cycles in Poland’s economy, taking into account how they were influenced by the consequences of the financial crisis 2007+ and COVID-19 pandemic. In the study the authors used the concept of deviation cycles which makes it possible to characterize the components of the (...) business cycle’s structure, i.e. identification of its turning points, particular phases and most important morphological features (i.e. duration of phases and the whole cycle, amplitude of fluctuations). The most significant empirical indicators which characterize the real cyclical processes, i.e. GDP, consumption and investment, were the subject of statistical analyses. (shrink)

Originally published between 1925 and 1997 the volumes in this set: Discuss the Impacts of Profitability, Business Cycles and the Capital Stock on Productivity; Evaluate various approaches to managing the uncertainty inherent in the future course of the interest rate cycle; Examine the combined effect of financial instability and industrial restructuring on postwar economic growth and recession in the US; Determine what statistical and other information is needed to formulate both the objects and the means of government economic (...) policy; Ask what theoretical tools should be used in order to clarify the issues of economic policy; Examine the sociological aspects of the business cycle. (shrink)

This research draws on complexity theory to provide an alternative conceptualization of issue management. We use six dynamics of complexity drawn from complex adaptive systems—equipoise, turbulence, sensitive conditions, bifurcation, attractor emergence, and symmetry breaking—to develop a metaphorical framework that describes what occurs during various periods of issue activity and what propels issues from one period of activity to another. We illustrate the framework with a case study of the pharmaceutical industry response to the HIV/aids pandemic in Sub-Saharan Africa. The (...) article concludes with a discussion of the additional affordances this framework provides to extend and compliment issue life cycle models. (shrink)

An argument is made in this article that there exists a trend in today's society toward a phenomenon that can tentatively be called neocharisma and that this trend poses important challenges to organization theory and the modern organization. This phenomenon, it is suggested, is expressed in today's intense pressure for innovation, something that makes it imperative to develop a distinction between constructive and destructive innovation. Organization theory has some difficulty in handling innovations, radical change, and irrationality, as a (...) review of the literature shows. In order to better understand a phenomenon such as neocharisma, it is proposed that organizations be seen as embedded in society in a typology based on Max Weber's four types of social order (tradition, instrumental rationality, value rationality, and charisma). The article ends with a comparison between charisma and neocharisma, a discussion of what differentiates constructive from destructive innovations, and suggestions for future research related to neocharisma. (shrink)

L’idée la plus répandue est que dans les années 40 Hayek délaissa l’économie en général et la théorie du cycle des affaires en particulier. En fait, Hayek est demeuré fidèle à ses idées sur ce dernier point. Sa théorie du cycle économique diffère de celle de Mises : Hayek a mis l’accent sur les perturbations endogènes qui donnent naissance aux cycles. Selon Hayek et Wicksell, le système bancaire ne parvient pas à arrêter cette expansion illusoire. Les derniers travaux (...) de Hayek sur la concurrence et la monnaie sont dans la lignée de son objectif de stabilisation monétaire. Il ne propose pas une théorie du cycle des affaires mais plutôt une théorie à propos de l’absence de cycles, une théorie de l’anti-cycle.The most commonly held idea is that in the 1940s Hayek lost interest in economics in general and in trade cycle theory in particular. Hayek did not change his mind on this subject. His trade cycle theory differs from Mises’one: Hayek puts the stress on the endogenous disturbance at the beginning of the trade cycle. According to both Hayek and Wicksell, the banking system fails to stop the false expansion. His late works on competition and money remain in line with his objective of monetary stabilization. Hayek does not present a trade cycle theory but rather a theory about the absence of a cycle, an anticycle theory. (shrink)

The Chinese economy has developed rapidly since the reform and opening up, but economic growth in Northeast China has declined dramatically after the 21st century. In this context, exploring the characteristics of economic and industrial fluctuations in the northeast of China and their relationship is beneficial to alleviating economic fluctuations and promoting stable economic development from the perspective of industrial development. The relationship between economic and industrial fluctuations in the three provinces of Northeast China was reexamined from the angle of (...) fluctuation components with the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise algorithm. The results obtained are as follows: In the three northeastern provinces of China, economic fluctuations were almost free from the influence of the primary industry, most affected by the secondary industry, and gradually influenced by the tertiary industry after the 21st century. Regarding the short-term business cycle of each province, economic development was the most stable when the market and government participated in the development of the secondary industry simultaneously. The midterm business cycle of Jilin Province was affected by the investment of equipment in secondary and tertiary industries, while that of Liaoning Province was affected by the investment of equipment in the secondary industry. Investment in the equipment of the secondary industry and the construction of secondary and tertiary industries was the key to maintaining the stability of long-term business cycle in Heilongjiang Province, and that in the construction of secondary and tertiary industries was the key to maintaining the stability of long-term business cycles in Jilin and Liaoning Provinces. (shrink)

This study analyses the performance and market timing of US socially responsible (SR) mutual funds in relation to business cycle regime shifts and different grouping criteria: Ethical strategy focus, SR attributes scores and Morningstar category. Different methodologies are applied and results highlight the importance of considering specific benchmarks related to the investment style in evaluating the SR fund performance. Our results show that, in aggregate, the abnormal performance of SR funds is negative and significant in expansion periods, but (...) no significant differences are found in recession periods. When specific benchmarks are considered, performance improves in recession periods, particularly for environmental funds, those with high SR attributes scores, and funds from the nine Morningstar style box categories. Market timing of SR funds takes positive values and is partially significant. Previous evidence of negative timing after a recent financial crisis vanishes when specific benchmarks are considered. For comparative purposes the performance of conventional US mutual funds is also analysed. There are no significant differences between the performance of SR and conventional mutual funds when a fair comparison is made within the same style categories. When all the SR funds are considered, they underperform conventional funds in expansion sub‐periods, but in recession sub‐periods they perform better, although the differences observed are not significant. (shrink)

Social innovations are urgently needed as we confront complex social problems. As these social problems feature substantial interdependencies among multiple systems and actors, developing and implementing innovative solutions involve the re-negotiating of settled institutions or the building of new ones. In this introductory article, we introduce a stylized three-cycle model highlighting the institutional nature of social innovation efforts. The model conceptualizes social innovation processes as the product of agentic, relational, and situated dynamics in three interrelated cycles that operate at (...) the micro, meso, and macro levels of analysis. The five papers included in this special issue address one or more of these cycles. We draw on these papers and the model to stimulate and offer guidance to future conversations on social innovations from an institutional theory perspective. (shrink)

This paper discusses the stability and Hopf bifurcation analysis of the diffusive Kaldor–Kalecki model with a delay included in both gross product and capital stock functions. The reaction-diffusion domain is considered, and the Galerkin analytical method is used to derive the system of ordinary differential equations. The methodology used to determine the Hopf bifurcation points is discussed in detail. Furthermore, full diagrams of the Hopf bifurcation regions considered in the stability analysis are shown, and some numerical simulations of the limit (...) cycle are used to confirm the theoretical outcomes. The delay investment parameter and diffusion coefficient can have great impacts on the Hopf bifurcations and stability of the business cycle model. The investment parameters for the gross product and capital stock as well as the adjustment coefficient of the production market are also studied. These parameters can cause instability in, and the stabilization of, the business cycle model. In addition, we point out that, as the delay investment parameter increases, the Hopf bifurcation points for the diffusion coefficient values decrease considerably. When the delay investment parameter has a very small value, the solution of the business cycle model tends to become steady. (shrink)