In Belgium the European elections and those for the regional councils were held on the same day. The elections of June 13th 2004 deserve a threefold analysis. First a comparison can be made with the results obtained five years ago for the same assemblies. lt shows that in Flanders the socialist party has progressed but that this advance was mainly due to the constitution of a cartel with one faction - Spirit - of the defunct Volksunie. The christian democrats made (...) headway, their progress being enhanced by the contribution of N-VA, the other faction stemming from the Volksunie. The liberals declined fairly markedly as did the green party but to a lesser extent than in the elections for the federal parliament. The June 2004 elections saw above all progress for the extreme right Vlaams Blok, which has become the second biggest party of Flanders with 24 pct of the vote. In the Walloon provinces the socialists progress most thereby increasing the gap separating them from the liberals. The christian democrats advance somewhat while the green party Ecolo declines substantially. The parties of the far right gain support and reach 8.73 pct of the vote. In Brussels the socialist advance is very marked allowing this party to conquer first place to the detriment of the liberals who are in decline. The progress made by frenchspeaking christian democrats is significant.A second approach for the analysis consists in comparing the results of the regional elections with those of the European ones. The differences are slight and rnainly due to the popularity of the candidates. In Belgium there was no "eurosceptic" or "sovereignty" list. The third angle consists in comparing the 2004 results with the ones of the parliamentary elections of 2003. One then observes in Flanders a decline of the socialists, a significant fall in support for the liberals and a progression of the christian democrats. But the main development remains the progression of the Vlaams Blok which gains more than 6 pct compared to its good result of 2003. In the Walloon provinces, the socialists remain at their 2003 level but increase their positive gap with regard to the liberals who are in decline. The christian democrats advance by some 2 pct whereas Ecolo recovers a small part of its 2003 loss. The parties of the far right gain some 1.5 pct. In Brussels, the most noteworthy developrnent is the progress of the frenchspeaking socialists who take over the first place from the liberals.In genera!lthese elections are characterised by a reinforcement of the far right to the detriment of the centre parties and by a status quo of the aggregate consisting of socialists and greens, but to the benefit of the former. (shrink)

For the first time, the municipal election of 10 October 1976 was held in new units resulting from the merger of numerous boroughs. This is the reason why the political character of the poll became more outspoken.The results of the present election should be compared not only with the preceding municipal poll in 1970, but also with the result of the two parliamentary elections which took place since then.This analyses leads us to the conclusion that in the Walloon region, «Rassemblement (...) Wallon» suffered an important setback in comparison with 1974 for the benefit of Christian Democrats and to a lesser extentof the Socialist Party.In the Flemish region, a great stability may be noted with respect to the opinion expressed in 1974. At the utmost, a very slight Socialist loss may be observed as wel! as a Liberal quasi status quo and a moderate rise for the Christian Democrats.Although FDF's progress with respect to 1974 cannot be denied, its extent is not sufficient to bring this party back to its 1971 record level. To conclude one might say that should the voters have voted in a similar way to elect a Parliament, the Chambers would not be much different from what they are now, but for a loss of seats for «Rassemblement Wallon» which would benefit to the Christian Democrats in the first place and to a lesser extent to the Socialists and PDF as well. (shrink)

Organized for the third time, the elections for the European Parliament at direct universal suffrage, in June 1989, had the following main characteristics: a still weak turnout, a progress for the socialist parties in most countries, a rather distinct rise of the Environmentalists and an indisputable rise of some far-right parties.In Belgium, the results cannot be compared exclusively with those of the 1984 European election. They must be seen in the continuation of the 1985 and 1987 general elections.Then, the main (...) characteristics are as follows : a near disappearance of the farleft lists associated with the absence of communist lists, a very marked rise of the Environmentalists, stronger in the Walloon Region than in Flanders, a progress for the Christian lists, especially for the C.V.P. in the Flemish districts, a setback for the Flemisch Socialists and a progress for the French-speaking Socialists in comparison with the 1984 poll. This progress, however, was not important enough as to enable them to regain their 1987 level. The Liberals are experiencing a setback compared with 1987 in the three regions of the country and, as far as the P.R.L. is concerned, even in comparison with 1984 and 1985.The Volksunie is suffering a serious setback, that is certainly benefitting to the Vlaams Blok, which, however, is also attracting voters from different political origins on issues similar to those of the far right.The analysis also contains a comparison between the results of the European election and those of the election for the Council of the Brussels-Capital Region, in a set of three districts where the voters were exactly the same. (shrink)

The European election which took place on June 17, 1984 must be seen in a more national than European context. Compared with previous general elections, the turn-out was generally lower and individual candidates polled a larger number of votes. Ought the Christian Democrats and Liberals, who make up the ruling coalition, be pleased about their respective results? A careful approach is required to answer that question. For the country as a whole, thefour governing parties lost 2.45 % of their share (...) of the vote in relation to the 1981 general election. This cannot be seen either as a massive repudiation or as a very satisfactory result. After two and a half years in power, this can be regarded as an average performance. However, if one takes a closer look at it, the result cannot be said as being very satisfying. In Flanders, the Liberals suffered a severe setback whereas the level of support for the Christian Democrats was only fractionally higher than in 1981. Between them, the two governing parties lost 6.72 % of the votes. In Brussels, the four ruling parties gained 9.89 %. This is partly due to two factors: the votes polled by Mr. Nols and, more importantly, the fact that no UDRT candidate stood in the election. It is not at all certain that a similar result would be recorded at a general election. Finally, in Wallonia, the two governing parties put up a good fight and gained 1.37 % of the votes whereas the Socialists and the Green movement made gains not because the ruling parties suffered a defeat but because of the considerable losses both by the Communist Party and by the nationalist parties. (shrink)

This article analyses the results recorded in Belgium in connection with the election of 10 june 1979 for the European Parliament. A first fact that should be brought under the attention is undoubtedly the decrease in the turnout at the poll, in spite of the legal obligation to vote, as well as the considerable augmentation of blank and void votes. One in five of the Belgian electors did not express his opinion. The results in the Walloon part of the country (...) reveal a setback of the Left, votes having swung especially from the Socialists, although also from the Christian Democrat Party to the Enveronmentalists, the «Rassemblement Wallon» and in a less degree to the Liberals. In the Flemish cantons, the great winner was the Flemish Christian Democrat Party, partly thanks to Mr. Tindemans' personal success. The Socialists succeeded in interrupting the downward move, started several years before, but the Liberals receded as did the nationalist parties. The Environmentalists are progressing. In Brussels, the Liberals are strongly moving forward as are the Flemish Christian Democrats, whereas the French-speaking Socialists, Christian emocrats, Regionalists and the Flemish Nationalist parties are losing ground.The election which did not stir much interest was marked by a «personalisation» of the votes, a phenomenon most spectacularly illustrated by Mr. Tindemans who obtained more than one million preference votes, viz. nearly 30 % of the valid votes in the Dutch-language constituency. (shrink)

This article is a summary of the results of the parliamentary election held on 17th December 1978. The balloting came in the wake of an early dissolution of the legislative bodies elected in 1977.The main feature of the election is that voters largely confirmed the 1977 voting patterns and that the new bodies wilt be very similar to the former ones.The only really significant trend is the falling off of Volksunie and the ahead movement of Flemish liberals. A second characteristic, (...) together with an increased number of blank or spoilt ballot papers, is a slight breakthrough of new or minor lists of candidates, e.g. the Democratiec Union for Respect of Work, an anti-tax party, and a number of «green» lists.It came rather as a surprise that the Flemish Christian Democrats lost some ground, as public opinion polls and political observers had forecast a gain.It seems that the Flemish liberal promises for tax cuts attracted CVP voters to some extent, resulting in that party not fully cashing in on the Volksunie drop.In the Walloon region the balloting was characterized by a Socialist loss, and a gain by Christian Democrats.The Chambers elected in 1978 are constituent bodies. For the time being it cannot be said whether they will be in a position to achieve pacification between the Flemish and French-speaking communities andto put an end to the long controversy concerning devolution which has been prevailing on the Belgian political scene for many years. (shrink)

On june 13th, the Belgian voters had to choose their representatives in four assemblies: the European Parliament, the Chamber of Representatives, the Senate, and the Regional Council of either the Flemish, the Walloon or the Brussels Capital regions accordingly.Thus these elections made it possible to measure possible differences in the results a same list obtained in the different polls. These differences could be observed for some lists, but not for all and were essentially due to the personality of certain candidates (...) rather than to a political will to differentiate, with the exception perhaps of the Ecologists, who traditionally perform better in European elections.These elections also saw an increased use of computer based voting: some 44 % of the registered voters had to express their choice via a computer screen. As a consequence one observed a sensitive drop in "blank and spoilt" ballots.The elections have been characterized by several phenomena. First, there was a marked decline, amounting to some 10 % of the votes, in the support for the parties of the outgoing majority: christian democrats and socialists. In losing each somewhat less than 5 %, they have both hit their historical low and together no langer hold a simpte majority in Parliament.The liberal family bas become the largest in Belgium, which had never accured since the introduction of the single vote system. This first position was conquered more through the decline in the results of the socialists and the christian democrats than via a true advance of the liberals. Though the Flemish component of the liberals progressed by 1.14 %, the French-speaking wing receded by 0.13 %.The overall winners of the elections are the ecologists who on the whole climb from 8. 44 % to 14.36 %. This progression is ho wever proportionately much more marked for the French-speaking component than for the Flemish part. Ecolo bas become the thirdmost important party of Wallonia and the second one in Brussels, whereas Agalev remains the fifth party in Flanders.The extremist parties have had diverging results. The extreme left remains altogether very marginal in Belgium, whereas the extreme right appears to be a typically Flemish phenomenon. Indeed, the Vlaams Blok increases its share of votes by 3.12 % and with 15.31 % has become the third party in Flanders and thereby even surpasses somewhat the result obtained by the VN.V in 1939.The French-speaking extreme right suffered a decline due among others to internal divisions and only stands for 4.09 % in Wallonia and 4 % in Brussels. As a consequence of these results the composition of the assemblies has changed drastically. To constitute a government holding a simpte majority in the Chamber of Representatives, one needs at least three political families or two families and the support of another party. In the Flemish parliament, one needs either a three party coalition, but necessarily comprising the CVP, or a four party coalition to obtain a majority. In the Walloon parliament, a two party coalition is only possible if the PS participates.In Brussels, the Vlaams Blok, although passing from 2 to 4 seats, bas not succeeded in paralysing the functioning of the institutions as this party didn't obtain the majority in the Flemish group.Opinion polls held before the elections had forecast the direction in which votes would shift, but not the extent. The dioxine crisis bas reinforced this shift and has undoubtedly accentuated the progression of the ecologist lists. (shrink)

The Parliamentary Elections of 17 April 1977 revealed a great stability of the body of electors and largely confirmed the result of the communal elections of 1976. On the 393 seats in Parliament, only 38 went to another political family.Nevertheless, this stability does not exclude movements; in this context should be noted the severe set-back of the «Rassemblement Wallon» which looses nearly half of its voters. lts defeat principally benefits the Liberals and the Christian Democrats and, to a lesser extent, (...) the Socialists. In the Flemish region, the Socialists strengthen their position, whereas the Christian Democrats gain ground. Unexpected is the Liberals's setback. The «Volksunie» slightly recedes.In Brussels, PDF is undeniably successful and even exceeds its 1971 result. Communists are losing ground all over the country.In these elections which have been characterized by rather limited vote variations, the «communal tickets» recede, on the whole, to the benefit of the traditional parties which received a serious blow in 1971, but showed signs of a recovery as soon as 1974. (shrink)

The general elections of november 1981 in Belgium showed the second most important change in party-vote since 1945. The non-voting is in the three regions slightly superior to the nonvoting at the 1978 elections, but considerably lower than the non-voting for the European Parliament.In contrast with the results of the public opinion polls, the number of blank and spoilt ballot papers shows a rather sharp decline compared with 1978. For the country taken as a whole, these votes totalled about 5 (...) % less than at the time of the European election.The election trends are very much alike in the three regions of the country : a considerable loss by the Christian Democrats, a quasi status quo for the Socialists, a gain by the Liberals and the UDRT-RAD, a Communist loss, a very heavy defeat by the French-speaking nationalist parties contrasting with the ahead movement of the Volksunie, this being the only «reversed» trend according to the regions, and at last a significant breakthrough of the «green» lists.The parties of the outgoing coalition have been «punished» by the electorate; together they lost 10.11 % of the valid votes. The loss, however, has been suffered almost entirely by the Christian Democrats. (shrink)

The main characteristics of the elections of 13th October 1985 seem to be the following.The turnout, as appears from the number of laid down ballot papers in relation to the number of registered voters, is slightly declining compared with 1981. It indeed amounted to 93.59 % against 94.56 % four years before. This rate of participation averages those of previous elections.The number of blank and spoilt ballot papers is rising very slightly. It totalled 7.45 % for the House of Representatives, (...) against 7.37 % in 1981. This is again an average percentage compared with the previous general elections. It is considerably lower than the number of blank and spoilt ballot papers at the European elections of both 1979 and 1984.The extent of the shifts in votes is much lower than in 1981 and also averages those of the last year's elections.The votes are moving in a very similar way in the three regions of the country, although with one notable exception : the loss suffered by the PVV in Flanders. Apart from that, the Christian Democrats are registering a gain in the northern and southern parts of the country as well as in Brussels as far as the CVP is concerned ; the extent of the Socialist advance is the same in the three regions ; the loss suffered by the nationalist parties is general and the «green» lists are reinforcing their breakthrough everywhere.The parties of the outgoing coalition are improving their result, which very seldom happens at Belgian elections: Christian Democrats and Liberals are indeed progressing by 2.26 %. Another noteworthy element, however, is the fact that the ahead movement of the main oppositionparties is even more important than the majority's as the Socialists obtained 3.25 % more of the valid votes. Of course this double success took place at the expense of the nationalist parties, the Communists and some smaller lists.The shift in seats does not exactly reflect the shift in votes, because of a different distribution of the seats between the provinces, on the one hand, due to the variations in the number of inhabitants, and because of the concentration on certain lists of the allocation of the last seat, on the other. (shrink)

The parliamentary election of 10 March 1974 was marked by a great steadiness of the electorate. The vote movements, which could nevertheless be observed, consisted, on the one part, in an advance of the Christian Democrats in Flanders and in Wallonia and, on the other part, in a generalized receding of the community parties. The backward move wasrather obvious for the FDF in Brussels, less evident for the RassemblementWallon and the slightest for the Volksunie. The Socialists gained ground in Wallonia (...) but receded in Flanders, whereas an inverse situation characterized the Liberal lists.It appears rather clearly that the personality of the candidates played a large part in this election. Same well-known candidates scored a great number of votes.Although the Belgian electorate very largely confirmed its choice of 1971, it seems that the community problems failed to catch the voter's attention as they had in the past ; moreover a certain return to the traditional political families could be observed under the influence of the economical, social and ethical problems. (shrink)

After four years of a so called «Rainbow» coalition, which had the support of the Socialists, the Liberals and the Greens, the electorate rewarded the first two political families and inflicted a crushing defeat on the Greens. The latter lost nearly 60 % of their electorate, which had occurred only once before to a political party since the introduction of universal suffrage in Belgium in 1919. The outcome of the elections is fairly similar in the three regions of the country.In (...) Flanders, the Socialists progress by more than 8 %, reaping the benefits of the alliance formed with «Spirit», one of the successor parties of the former Volksunie. Half of the Socialists' progress can be attributed to this effect. Moreover, the Socialist party started off from an absolute low hit in 1999 and has not regained its top scores of the 1960s. The advance of the Liberal VLD is more modest,, but it followed upon excellent previous results. With some 25 % of the vote, the VLD, which is the first party in Flanders, has reached an absolute high.Conversely, the Christian Democrats of the CD&V slightly regress, thereby continuing a downward trend. These results take them to their historical low, and make them into Flanders ' third party, with some 21.9 % of the vote. Agalev, the Green party, no langer has any representation in parliarnent and falls back from11 to 3.85 %. The far right, the Vlaams Blok, continues its advance and reaches 17,86 %, an increase of2,5 %.In Wallonia too one observes a significant advance of the Socialists. The PS remains the first party in the South of the country with 36.39 % of the vote, progressing by 7 %. It exceeds all its results of the previous twelve years, without however reaching its earlier highs. The Liberals of the Mouvement Réformateur gain 3.65 % and are at their historical high with 28.38 % of the vote. The Christian Democrats, under the denomination CDH slip back by some 1.5 %, but this decline is almost equivalent to the result of a dissident list of the CDH, which had wanted to maintain «christian» as a reference. This doesn't alter the fact that the Christian Democrats have also reached their all time low.The Greens, Ecolo, lose some 57 % of their vote and stand at 7.45 %. In contrast with 1999, one observes a slight advance ofthe Front National, a far right party, that only obtained 5.56 % of the vote however. With the exception ofan increase in the French and a decline in the Flemish vote, the Brussels districts show the same characteristics as the two other regions of the country; a very significant advance of the Socialists, a slight increase in the Liberal vote, the collapse of the Greens; the status quo ofthe Christian Democrats and an advance of the far right with almost 2 %.The 2003 election therefore seems to be a correction on the 1999 one, where the advance of the greens had been amplified by the dioxineJood scare. But the width of the swing makes it into one of the elections where the volatility of the vote will have been the highest. (shrink)

Organized after an almost complete term of office, but the end of which was marked by the resurgence of the community-linked problems and by the departure of the Ministers of the Volksunie, the parliamentary elections of 24th November 1991 will remain characterized by the punishment inflicted by apart of the voters, not only on the majority's parties, but also on the traditional parties as a whole.The opposition of the dissatisfied voters did not show itself either in a reduced participation to (...) the vote, a rather normal phenomenon in a country where voting is compulsory, or in a rise of the blank and spoilt ba/lot papers. The 1991 figures are, in these respects, very similar to the average figures of the last thirty years.The opposition was first characterized by high variations in the choice of the voters, which dit not, however, exceed the size of the movements noticed at previous elections. The rate of external mobility, as computed by us, is ranked fifth among the 22 levels that have been counted since universal suffrage has been introduced in Belgium. In 1991, this rate was the highest in Brussels, which is traditional, but it was also considerably higher in Flanders than in the Walloon Region, which quite seldom happens.Then, the opposition found expression in a setback for the Jour ruling parties.This set back amounted to about 8% and even 10% if account is taken of the Volksunie which was part of the Government until the very last weeks before the dissolution of the Houses of Parliament. Such a setback for an outgoing majority is not exceptional; a more unusual phenomenon lies in the f act that this decline was not profitable, on the whole, to the third traditional "family", i.e. the Liberals. As a result of this simultaneous setback for the three traditional families, these total only about 70% of the valid votes, which is the worst result of the whole Belgian electoral history.The political formations that are progressing are the Ecologists, on the one hand, and the far-right lists, on the other hand. Ecolo improves its results considerably in the Walloon Region and in Brussels, without however reaching the level obtained at the 1989 European elections, while Agalev only registers a slight progress.On the contrary, the winner of the elections in the Flemish Region, is unquestionablythe Vlaams Blok, as well as the "Rossem" lists that draw some 5% of the angry voters.If the far-left trend has almost disappeared from the Belgian political scene, the far-right parties, on the contrary, are making a breakthrough on it. The current made up by the Vlaams Blok and the openly far-right lists wins a bit less than 8% of the votes in the whole country. It is likely, however, that those who voted for the Vlaams Blok do not all adhere to the far-right ideas, but that some of them are attracted by the Flemish autonomist stands. The real electoral power of the far-right parties can then be assessed at 6 to 7%, which is much more than in 1987, hut does not make a record in comparison with other European countries.The votes of opponents without any clear political orientation, the bulk of which is won by the "Rossem" lists, amount to some 3%, which is new for Belgium.In a country where voting is optional, many of these voters would probably have stayed at home.This being so, and as f ar as these concepts still remain meaningful, the Belgian electoral pendulum shifted some 5% towards the right, at the expense of the left for more than 3% and the centre for a bit less than 2%.As far as the Parliament is concerned, the situation is clear in the Walloon Region and in the French-speaking Community where the Socialist Party, by far the most important party, is almost inevitable. It is however much more vague on the Flemish side, where the CVP's setback and the dispersion of the polical farces make several types of coalitions possible. (shrink)

Organized only two years after the previous genera! elections, the 1987 poll, characterized by a great stability of the electorale, wilt probably have a deep political impact on the country's future.If the rate of external mobility suitably gauges the extent of the citizens' shifts in votes, the 1987 elections will have ranged among the four most stable general elections out of the twenty-two that have taken place since universal suffrage has been introduced. And yet, because of the decline of the (...) outgoing coalition, on the one hand, which is mainly due to the loss suffered by the CVP, and because of the change of majority within the Walloon Regional Council and the French-speaking Community Council, on the other, the political situation appears very different after the 13th December 1987 elections. The observer can only be struck by the asymmetrical behaviour of the voters in the northern and southern parts of the country. In Flanders, the main party is on the decline white all other parties are winning votes.However, everything seems to show that the motivation of the voters who did not vote twice for the same party in 1985 and 1987, but who, as we said, are not very numerous, was an economic and social motivationrather than a language or community-related one. The gains of Agalev, the PVV and the SP in the face of the Volksunie's status quo cannot be explained otherwise. The gains of the Vlaams Blok, notably in Antwerp, are probably due to social rather than community-linked motivations too. In the W alloon Region, on the contrary, the main party is registering an obvious gain, white the other parties are declining or stagnating. In this case, the motivations seem to be numerous : they have a social and economic background on the part of voters who trusted the main opposition party, but they are also community linked and inspired by considerations that have to do with the relationships between the Walloon and Flemish people in the Belgian State under transformation.The political prospects then appear uncertain. This is even more true that two other elections are to take place in the next eighteen months.These concern the opposite levels of the elected Assemblies: the municipal Council and the European Parliament. (shrink)

On October 8th 2000 municipal elections were held in Belgium to renew the local councils which had been elected in 1994. In the Walloon region and in Flanders in addition provincial elections were organised. The aim of the article is to try and measure globally where the political forces stand after these elections and among others to assess whether significant swings have take place since june 13th, 1999, when the latest parliamentary and regional elections took place. On the basis of (...) an estimation of the global results in the municipal elections of the various parties in the Walloon region, in Flanders and in Brussels, backed up by the actual results of the provincial elections, one can say that the liberal group bas strengthened its first position.The Christian democrats, who make up the second most important political group and the Socialists, who rank third, have regained a large part of the losses they incurred onjune 13th, 1999.Although improving their results in comparison with 1994, the Green parties lost again part of their advance they registered in the parliamentary and regional elections and which had probably been boosted by the dioxin crisis.The frenchspeaking far right practically disappears, whereas the Vlaams Blok obtained an average of 15 % of the Flemish electorate in the municipal and provincial elections, a level which it had reached in the 1999 parliamentary elections. (shrink)