Rationality has been a principle widely assumed in economics from early on. In contrast, rationality in the formation of economic expectations is rather new. Since the term “rational expectations” has meanwhile become a kind of slogan for diverse issues in economics as in related fields, there is some danger of authors’ not always being aware of the true meaning of this technical term. Sometimes it is used, in a context where expectation formation about uncertain events is essential, as if rational (...) expectations solved this fundamental problem. (shrink)

„Keiner merkte, dass die Unterhaltung eigentlich nur schreiend vor sich ging …“ Das sind Tagebuchaufzeichnungen eines charakteristischen Abends im Alpbacherhof, wo man sich nach getaner Arbeit zu ausgiebigen Diskussionen beim Jazz-Abend zusammentraf, um über die aktuellsten Themen weiter zu debattieren. Es war in den 1970er Jahren, dass mir mehrmals die Gelegenheit geboten worden war, am Europäischen Hochschulforum in Alpbach teilzunehmen; es war die Zeit des kritischen Rationalismus und wir hörten Hans Alberts Ideen zum Positivismusstreit. Als junge Studentin nahm ich an (...) den Gesprächen teil, selbst wenn keine eigene Meinung im engeren Sinne vertreten werden sollte, sondern nur versucht wurde, die „großen Geister“ zu verstehen. Aber meist regte die Atmosphäre in dem prächtigen Alpendorf alle Teilnehmer zu Fragen, zu Kommentaren oder zu Widersprüchen an. (shrink)

It is the aim of this paper to find a systematic approach to the study of induction by integrating the ideas of several disciplines to have a successful instrument for analyzing processes of inference, learning and discovery. On the way to generalities which enable sensible forecasts the social and economic sciences use empirical work and nowadays we are encouraged to use more and more experimental access to investigate analogous situations. Induction is used as a fundamental concept and experimental work has (...) brought some lights behind learning and inference. (shrink)

It is the aim of this paper to find a systematic approach to the study of induction by integrating the ideas of several disciplines to have a successful instrument for analyzing processes of inference, learning and discovery. On the way to generalities which enable sensible forecasts the social and economic sciences use empirical work and nowadays we are encouraged to use more and more experimental access to investigate analogous situations. Induction is used as a fundamental concept and experimental work has (...) brought some lights behind learning and inference. (shrink)

It is the aim of this paper to find a systematic approach to the study of induction by integrating the ideas of several disciplines to have a successful instrument for analyzing processes of inference, learning and discovery. On the way to generalities which enable sensible forecasts the social and economic sciences use empirical work and nowadays we are encouraged to use more and more experimental access to investigate analogous situations. Induction is used as a fundamental concept and experimental work has (...) brought some lights behind learning and inference. (shrink)