This article reflects on Collins’s classic work, The Credential Society, situating his critique of educational credentialism within broader ‘conflict sociology’. The discussion reappraises Collins’s work in the context of the ‘new credentialism’, ‘new learning’ and the race, gender and class concerns raised in current debates on higher education. The article characterizes contemporary higher education as being trapped in a Procrustean dynamic: techno-utopianism with job displacement and expansionism with declining public support. Collins attempts to escape the legacy of structural-functionalism through conflict (...) sociology or predictions of systemic crisis. This is contrasted with his contemporary, Herbert Gintis’s eclectic attempt to construct a transdisciplinary social science. The key problem of marketized inequality is linked to the sociology of absences in conflict sociology, and it is argued that inequalities of class, race, gender and coloniality in higher education and credentialism can no longer be ignored. (shrink)

We are living in an algorithmic age where mathematics and computer science are coming together in powerful new ways to influence, shape and guide our behaviour and the governance of our societies. As these algorithmic governance structures proliferate, it is vital that we ensure their effectiveness and legitimacy. That is, we need to ensure that they are an effective means for achieving a legitimate policy goal that are also procedurally fair, open and unbiased. But how can we ensure that algorithmic (...) governance structures are both? This article shares the results of a collective intelligence workshop that addressed exactly this question. The workshop brought together a multidisciplinary group of scholars to consider barriers to legitimate and effective algorithmic governance and the research methods needed to address the nature and impact of specific barriers. An interactive management workshop technique was used to harness the collective intelligence of this multidisciplinary group. This method enabled participants to produce a framework and research agenda for those who are concerned about algorithmic governance. We outline this research agenda below, providing a detailed map of key research themes, questions and methods that our workshop felt ought to be pursued. This builds upon existing work on research agendas for critical algorithm studies in a unique way through the method of collective intelligence. (shrink)

The multilevel model of meme diffusion conceptualizes how mediated messages diffuse over time and space. As a pilot application of implementing the meme diffusion, we developed the social media analytics and research testbed to monitor Twitter messages and track the diffusion of information in and across different cities and geographic regions. Social media analytics and research testbed is an online geo-targeted search and analytics tool, including an automatic data processing procedure at the backend and an interactive frontend user interface. Social (...) media analytics and research testbed is initially designed to facilitate searching and geo-locating tweet topics and terms in different cities and geographic regions; filtering noise from raw data ; analyzing social media data from a spatiotemporal perspective; and visualizing social media data in diagnostic ways. Social media analytics and research testbed provides researchers and domain experts with a tool that can efficiently facilitate the refinement, formalization, and testing of research hypotheses or questions. Three case studies are introduced to illustrate how the predictions of meme diffusion can be examined and to demonstrate the potentials and key functions of social media analytics and research testbed. (shrink)

This paper proposes a constrained solution update strategy for multiobjective evolutionary algorithm based on decomposition, in which each agent aims to optimize one decomposed subproblem. Different from the existing approaches that assign one solution to each agent, our approach allocates the closest solutions to each agent and thus the number of solutions in an agent may be zero and no less than one. Regarding the agent with no solution, it will be assigned one solution in priority, once offspring are generated (...) closest to its subproblem. To keep the same population size, the agent with the largest number of solutions will remove one solution showing the worst convergence. This improves diversity for one agent, while the convergence of other agents is not lowered. On the agent with no less than one solution, offspring assigned to this agent are only allowed to update its original solutions. Thus, the convergence of this agent is enhanced, while the diversity of other agents will not be affected. After a period of evolution, our approach may gradually reach a stable status for solution assignment; i.e., each agent is only assigned with one solution. When compared to six competitive multiobjective evolutionary algorithms with different population selection or update strategies, the experiments validated the advantages of our approach on tackling two sets of test problems. (shrink)

In this paper, the fixed-time practical bipartite tracking problem for the networked robotic systems with parametric uncertainties, input disturbances, and directed signed graphs is investigated. A new fixed-time estimator-based control algorithm for the NRSs is presented to address the abovementioned problem. By applying a sliding surface and the time base generator approach, a new stability analysis method is proposed to achieve the fixed-time practical bipartite tracking for the NRSs. We also derive the upper bound of the convergence time for employing (...) the presented control algorithm to solve the practical bipartite tracking problem and further demonstrate that the convergence time is independent of the initial value. Finally, the simulation examples are given to verify the effectiveness of the presented algorithms. (shrink)

A two-part survey was conducted, where respondents reported ethically challenging incidents encountered in the previous two years and actions taken to address them. 132 certified counseling psychologists participated and reported 136 ethical dilemmas. The top categories of dilemmas pertained to breaking confidentiality between respondents and clients, including mandatory reporting, collaborating with education associates, and interjecting by the authority. 82% of the respondents took actions to address the dilemmas. These actions ranged from steering a middle course, upholding professional ethical standards, seeking (...) consultation to taking no actions. Potential environmental contributors to the dilemmas and actions taken to address them were explored. (shrink)

Although most existing studies have considered entrepreneurial bricolage as a means to overcome resource constraints in new ventures, few have explored the direct effects of entrepreneurial bricolage on employee creativity, particularly in the context of entrepreneurial internet firms. Drawing from multiple theories, this study proposes a cross-level mediation model for the trickle-down effects of entrepreneurial bricolage and business model innovation on employee creativity. By using a 2-wave longitudinal design, survey data were collected from multiple sources, including 49 leaders and 336 (...) employees from entrepreneurial internet firms in China. Multilevel structural equation modeling was applied to analyze the cross-level mediation model. The results show that both entrepreneurial bricolage and business model innovation failed to significantly and positively direct employee creativity. Furthermore, entrepreneurial bricolage exerted a cross-level influence on employee creativity that was sequentially transmitted through between-level business model innovation and within-level creative self-efficacy. The theoretical and managerial implications of these findings are also discussed. (shrink)

Cognitive Science, Volume 46, Issue 2, February 2022.

ObjectivesAcupuncture therapy has been used for cognitive impairment-related diseases, however, there are still few studies on the overall trend of acupuncture therapy on cognitive impairment based on bibliometric analysis. The purpose of this study was to explore the research trend of the impact of acupuncture on cognitive impairment in the past 15 years, analyze the research trends and hotspots, and provide new ideas and theoretical basis for future research directions.MethodsFrom the Web of Science Core Collection, the relevant literature on the (...) treatment of cognitive impairment with acupuncture from 2007 to 2022 was retrieved. Then, based on the CiteSpace and VOSviewer software of the Java platform, the cooperation between countries and institutions in this field, the co-citation of journals and documents, and the cooperation between authors and authors, etc. were analyzed. In addition, the co-occurrence and burst analysis of keywords are also carried out, and a visual knowledge map is drawn.ResultsAs of August 08, 2022, a total of 394 records related to the treatment of cognitive impairment with acupuncture were identified. The analysis results show: The number and rate of annual publications have steadily increased, with some fluctuations from year to year. The countries that contribute the most to this field are China and the USA. Among them, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine and Capital Medical University are tied for first place in terms of the number of published papers. Tao Jing is the most prolific author and the number one cited author.ConclusionsThe number of publications on acupuncture for cognitive impairment is expected to increase rapidly in future research, suggesting a bright future for the field. Future research hotspots will focus on pain, injury, protocol, diagnosis, guidelines, etc. It is also necessary to strengthen cross-regional and cross-country cooperation among various academic groups. (shrink)

Background Individual physicians and physician-associated factors may influence patients’/surrogates’ autonomous decision-making, thus influencing the practice of do-not-resuscitate orders. The objective of this study was to examine the influence of individual attending physicians on signing a DNR order. Methods This study was conducted in closed model, surgical intensive care units in a university-affiliated teaching hospital located in Northern Taiwan. The medical records of patients, admitted to the surgical intensive care units for the first time between June 1, 2011 and December 31, (...) 2013 were reviewed and data collected. We used Kaplan–Meier survival curves with log-rank test and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models to compare the time from surgical intensive care unit admission to do-not-resuscitate orders written for patients for each individual physician. The outcome variable was the time from surgical ICU admission to signing a DNR order. Results We found that each individual attending physician’s likelihood of signing do-not-resuscitate orders for their patients was significantly different from each other. Some attending physicians were more likely to write do-not-resuscitate orders for their patients, and other attending physicians were less likely to do so. Conclusion Our study reported that individual attending physicians had influence on patients’/surrogates’ do-not-resuscitate decision-making. Future studies may be focused on examining the reasons associated with the difference of each individual physician in the likelihood of signing a do-not-resuscitate order. (shrink)

A burgeoning body of research has shown that authoritarian leadership embodies the characteristics of “light” and “dark,” meaning that it does not always have a negative impact on employees’ creative activities. However, studies explaining this potential positive effect are insufficient. To extend the AL and creativity literature, we draw on self-determination theory and event system theory, and elicit discipline-focused AL and appointment event criticality to examine whether, when, and how authoritarian leaders affect employee creativity positively. With time-lagged data collected from (...) 435 employees and their direct leaders in China, we found that discipline-focused AL has an indirect positive effect on employee creativity through creative self-efficacy. Additionally, appointment event criticality strengthens the positive relationship between discipline-focused AL and creative self-efficiency, and the indirect impact of discipline-focused AL on employee creativity through creative self-efficiency. The theoretical and practical implications are discussed. (shrink)

_Tsai Ming-liang_ Jean-Pierre Rehm, Olivier Joyard and Daniele Riviere Paris: Dis Voir, 1999 ISBN: 2-906571-90-3 127 pps.

Economy is one of the major issues in the United States presidential election campaign. In order to investigate the impact of the US presidential election on the economy, this paper first constructs an analysis model of the economic impact on the United States based on stepwise regression and principal component analysis to analyze the focus of different candidates’ attention on the economic issues and its possible impact on the US economy in the election year and after the election; secondly, a (...) Chinese economic impact analysis model based on factor analysis and machine learning logistic regression was constructed to analyze the impact of the US presidential election on the Chinese economy. At the same time, the future economic development of the United States and China based on the time series prediction model is forecast and analyzed, respectively. Finally, the countermeasures and policy suggestions on China’s related economic development are put forward. (shrink)

Different countries have different education systems and their advantages and disadvantages. It is necessary to optimize their own higher education system and formulate policy plans to fully realize the optimization of the higher education system. For this reason, we propose to establish a continuous evaluation model of higher education health. This study mainly uses principal component analysis and entropy weight method to determine the evaluation model of higher education health status and makes autoregressive moving average model time series analysis based (...) on the higher education evaluation model, which is obtained by studying long-term trends. The future development of education realizes the evaluation of sustainability. For Vietnam, that needs to be adjusted, the evaluation indicators based on the health status of the higher education system in developing countries will be added, tested, and adjusted and combined with the ARMA model prediction to determine the time period for the policy to meet reasonable expectations, and targeted development policies are proposed. Finally, we test the sensitivity of the established model, evaluate and analyze the advantages and disadvantages of the model, And combine the full text analysis to get the final conclusion. (shrink)

Resumen: Cómo ver la reforma de la iglesia católica en el siglo XVI y su relación con la virtud es un tema importante en el estudio de la filosofía humanista. Los humanistas enfatizan que la educación virtuosa es la base para cultivar la personalidad y creen que restaurar las virtudes de la iglesia es la “cura” para los males de la iglesia moderna temprana. Consilium de emendanda Ecclesia (1537) es la práctica de la virtud de los humanistas católicos. Esto se (...) refleja en propuestas para fortalecer las normas educativas y las disciplinas socio-morales y enfatizar el perfeccionamiento de la virtud clerical como la fuerza impulpara la reforma. Además, bajo la guía de la ética de la virtud, la política de la virtud se convierte en la ideología guía de la práctica política de esos humanistas, donde reconocen la autoridad del papa y de la iglesia y asocian la virtud con la legitimidad del poder. La filosofía de la virtud en Consilium forma el fundamento ideológico para la reforma de la iglesia católica. El erudito chino antiguo Dong Zhongshu (179-104 B.C.) practicó una política similar de la virtud. En las exubergemde la primavera y el otoño, combinla legitimidad del gobierno con la virtud basada en el derecho divino de los reyes, perpetuasí el concepto confuciano del “sabio”. Tanto humanistas católicos como Dong enfatizaron la importancia de la virtud de los gobernantes como agentes de Dios. (shrink)

本书内容包括:证明评价及其影响因素概述、证明制度内部制约关系对证明评价的影响、证明制度周边因素对证明评价的影响等三部分。.

本书记录了人类千百万年生命经验的诸多反思与总结的生存箴言;汇集了有史以来植物、动物、人类三个层级的生命世界与大自然互相演绎出的,至今仍令人悲伤叹惋而又足以激动人心的生命现象与生活的真理。.

中國「最可能接近哲學家」稱號的大師， 前北大哲學系教授、當代中文世界重量級哲學作家——陳嘉映 寫給大眾的經典名著全新改版再現！ 用淵博而不瑣碎的知識、以淺白但不泛泛而談的敘述，帶領我們穿越到古希臘，一路悠遊至哥白尼、牛頓、愛因斯坦，一覽引領人類認識世界的兩大脈絡──哲學與科學的發展簡史。 人類解釋世界的努力，前有神話、巫術，後有哲學、科學。排除了千難萬險，才抵達日心說、牛頓力學、進化論、量子物理，直至今日，科學已儼然成為「真理」的代言者。 科學為什麼會取得這樣的成功？人們經驗著同樣的世界，為什麼歷史上只從歐洲產生了科學？最大的關鍵，在於希臘哲學的出現，以哲學為母體，科學逐漸茁壯，直至今日，我們對世界的認識，已由科學所主導。另一方面，我們 也為科學之成功付出了代價：用科學來逼近「真理」，卻將人的心靈排除出真理的領域之外。用數學和實驗思維樹立的科學大廈，沒有人之善惡、悲喜的位置——科學果真是這個世界的全部答案嗎？科學之外，還另有求道之途？ 一場站在人類認知發展歷史上的回望 一部明白現代哲學／科學大路線的簡要速讀 當代，我們毫不懷疑科學能逼近「真理」，卻也將人的心靈排除出真理的畫面之外。 當我們已能用數學推理感官不及之處，卻仍習慣靠經驗感受世界──這本書將帶你超越常識的表淺思維，瞭解世界觀背後的人文與科學之爭。 要談論科學的真理性及其限度，最好從科學的源頭——哲學談起。這本書既不是個開端，更不是個結論。而是試圖從反思哲學自身的歷史，獲得更清醒的自我認識，獲取新鮮的生命形態。 要理解當代的科學思想興起，與哲學處於當代的意義，本書是一部簡鍊的人類思想故事，也如同作者陳嘉映的自述：天下的道理，差不多早被前人講過，他自己則是嘗試用大眾讀者比較易懂的方式，把道理重新講述。.

Bradley offers a quick and convincing argument that no Boolean semantic theory for conditionals can validate a very natural principle concerning the relationship between credences and conditionals. We argue that Bradley’s principle, Preservation, is, in fact, invalid; its appeal arises from the validity of a nearby, but distinct, principle, which we call Local Preservation, and which Boolean semantic theories can non-trivially validate.

When speakers utter conflicting moral sentences, it seems clear that they disagree. It has often been suggested that the fact that the speakers disagree gives us evidence for a claim about the semantics of the sentences they are uttering. Specifically, it has been suggested that the existence of the disagreement gives us reason to infer that there must be an incompatibility between the contents of these sentences. This inference then plays a key role in a now-standard argument against certain theories (...) in moral semantics. In this paper, we introduce new evidence that bears on this debate. We show that there are moral conflict cases in which people are inclined to say both that the two speakers disagree and that it is not the case at least one of them must be saying something incorrect. We then explore how we might understand such disagreements. As a proof of concept, we sketch an account of the concept of disagreement and an independently motivated theory of moral semantics which, together, explain the possibility of such cases. (shrink)

Despite its small stature, "if" occupies a central place both in everyday language and the philosophical lexicon. In allowing us to talk about hypothetical situations, "if" raises a host of thorny philosophical puzzles about language and logic. Addressing them requires tools from linguistics, logic, probability theory, and metaphysics. Justin Khoo uses these tools to navigate a maze of interconnected issues about conditionals, some of which include: the nature of linguistic communication, the relationship between logical and natural languages, and the (...) relationship between different kinds of modality. According to Khoo's theory, conditionals form a unified class of expressions which share a common semantic core that encodes inferential dispositions. Thus, rather than represent the world, conditionals are devices used to communicate how we are disposed to infer. Khoo shows that this theory can be extended to predict the probabilities of conditionals, as well as how different kinds of conditionals differ both semantically and pragmatically. Khoo's book will make for a significant contribution to the literature on conditionals and should be of interest to philosophers, linguists, and computer scientists. (shrink)

I argue that code words like “inner city” do not semantically encode hidden or implicit meanings, and offer an account of how they nonetheless manage to bring about the surprising effects discussed in Mendelberg 2001, White 2007, and Stanley 2015 (among others).

It is often assumed that when one party felicitously rejects an assertion made by an- other party, the first party thinks that the proposition asserted by the second is false. This assumption underlies various disagreement arguments used to challenge contex- tualism about some class of expressions. As such, many contextualists have resisted these arguments on the grounds that the disagreements in question may not be over the proposition literally asserted. The result appears to be a dialectical stalemate, with no independent (...) method of determining whether any particular instance of disagreement is over the proposition literally asserted. In this paper, I propose an independent method for assessing whether a disagreement is about what’s literally asserted. Focusing on epistemic modals throughout, I argue that this method provides evidence that some epistemic modal disagreements are in fact not over the proposition literally asserted by the utterance of the epistemic modal sentence. This method provides a way to break the stalemate, and reveals a new data point for theories of epistemic modals to predict—that is, how there can be such modal disagreements. In the rest of the paper, I motivate a general theory of how to predict these kinds of disagreements, and then offer some brief remarks about how contextualist, relativist, and expressivist theories of epistemic modals might accommodate this new data point. (shrink)

Inquiry into the meaning of logical terms in natural language (‘and’, ‘or’, ‘not’, ‘if’) has generally proceeded along two dimensions. On the one hand, semantic theories aim to predict native speaker intuitions about the natural language sentences involving those logical terms. On the other hand, logical theories explore the formal properties of the translations of those terms into formal languages. Sometimes, these two lines of inquiry appear to be in tension: for instance, our best logical investigation into conditional connectives may (...) show that there is no conditional operator that has all the properties native speaker intuitions suggest if has. Indicative conditionals have famously been the source of one such tension, ever since the triviality proofs of both Lewis (1976) and Gibbard (1981) established conclusions which are in prima facie tension with ordinary judgments about natural language indicative conditionals. In a recent series of papers, Branden Fitelson has strengthened both triviality results (Fitelson 2013, 2015, 2016), revealing a common culprit: a logical schema known as IMPORT-EXPORT. Fitelson’s results focus the tension between the logical results and ordinary judgments, since IMPORT-EXPORT seems to be supported by intuitions about natural language. In this paper, we argue that the intuitions which have been taken to support IMPORT-EXPORT are really evidence for a closely related, but subtly different, principle. We show that the two principles are independent by showing how, given a standard assumption about the conditional operator in the formal language in which IMPORT-EXPORT is stated, many existing theories of indicative conditionals validate one, but not the other. Moreover, we argue that once we clearly distinguish these principles, we can use propositional anaphora to show that IMPORT-EXPORT is in fact not valid for natural language indicative conditionals (given this assumption about the formal conditional operator). This gives us a principled and independently motivated way of rejecting a crucial premise in many triviality results, while still making sense of the speaker intuitions which appeared to motivate that premise. We suggest that this strategy has broad application and an important lesson: in theorizing about the logic of natural language, we must pay careful attention to the translation between the formal languages in which logical results are typically proved, and natural languages which are the subject matter of semantic theory. (shrink)

At the center of the literature on conditionals lies the division between indicative and subjunctive conditionals, and Ernest Adams’ famous minimal pair: If Oswald didn’t shoot Kennedy, someone else did. If Oswald hadn’t shot Kennedy, someone else would have. While a lot of attention is paid to figuring out what these different kinds of conditionals mean, significantly less attention has been paid to the question of why their grammatical differences give rise to their semantic differences. In this paper, I articulate (...) and defend an answer to this question that illuminates and unifies the meanings of both kinds of conditionals. The basic idea is that epistemic and metaphysical possibilities differ with respect to their interaction with time, such that there can be present epistemic possibilities with different pasts, while present metaphysical possibilities share the same past. The interpretation of conditionals is subject to a pragmatic constraint that rules out interpretations in which their consequents are directly settled by information used to build their domains. The past + future morphology on subjunctives, but not indicatives, is what allows them to receive a metaphysical interpretation in light of this pragmatic constraint. The resulting theory predicts several surprising features of indicatives and subjunctives, which I argue are correct. (shrink)

The Ramseyan thesis that the probability of an indicative conditional is equal to the corresponding conditional probability of its consequent given its antecedent is both widely confirmed and subject to attested counterexamples (e.g., McGee 2000, Kaufmann 2004). This raises several puzzling questions. For instance, why are there interpretations of conditionals that violate this Ramseyan thesis in certain contexts, and why are they otherwise very rare? In this paper, I raise some challenges to Stefan Kaufmann's account of why the Ramseyan thesis (...) sometimes fails, and motivate my own theory. On my theory, the proposition expressed by an indicative conditional is partially determined by a background partition, and hence its probability depends on the choice of such a partition. I hold that this background partition is contextually determined, and in certain conditions is set by a salient question under discussion in the context. I show how the resulting theory offers compelling answers to the puzzling questions raised by failures of the Ramseyan thesis. (shrink)

I argue that not all context dependent expressions are alike. Pure (or ordinary) indexicals behave more or less as Kaplan thought. But quasi indexicals behave in some ways like indexicals and in other ways not like indexicals. A quasi indexical sentence φ allows for cases in which one party utters φ and the other its negation, and neither party’s claim has to be false. In this sense, quasi indexicals are like pure indexicals (think: “I am a doctor”/“I am not a (...) doctor” as uttered by different individuals). In such cases involving a pure indexical sentence, it is not appropriate for the two parties to reject each other’s claims by saying, “No.” However, in such cases involving a quasi indexical sentence, it is appropriate for the par- ties to reject each other’s claims. In this sense, quasi indexicals are not like pure indexicals. Drawing on experimental evidence, I argue that gradable adjectives like “rich” are quasi indexicals in this sense. e existence of quasi indexicals raises trouble for many existing theories of context dependence, including standard contextualist and relativist theories. I propose an alternative semantic and pragmatic theory of quasi indexicals, negotiated contextualism, that combines insights from Kaplan 1989 and Lewis 1979. On my theory, rejection is licensed with quasi indexicals (even when neither of the claims involved has to be false) because the two utterances involve conflicting proposals about how to update the conversational score. I also adduce evidence that conflicting truth value assessments of a single quasi indexical utterance exhibit the same behavior. I argue that negotiated contextualism can account for this puzzling property of quasi indexicals as well. (shrink)

ABSTRACTRecent debate over the semantics and pragmatics of epistemic modals has focused on intuitions about cross-contextual truth-value assessments. In this paper, we advocate a different approach to evaluating theories of epistemic modals. Our strategy focuses on judgments of the incompatibility of two different epistemic possibility claims, or two different truth value assessments of a single epistemic possibility claim. We subject the predictions of existing theories to empirical scrutiny, and argue that existing contextualist and relativist theories are unable to account for (...) the full pattern of observed judgments. As a way of illustrating the theoretical upshot of these results, we conclude by developing a novel theory of epistemic modals that is able to predict the results. (shrink)

Disjunctive antecedent conditionals —conditionals of the form if A or B, C—sometimes seem to entail both of their simplifications and sometimes seem not to. I argue that this behavior reveals a genuine ambiguity in DACs. Along the way, I discuss a new observation about the role of focal stress in distinguishing the two interpretations of DACs. I propose a new theory, according to which the surface form of a DAC underdetermines its logical form: on one possible logical form, if A (...) or B, C does entail both of its simplifications, while on the other, it does not. (shrink)

A proof by Allan Gibbard (Ifs: Conditionals, beliefs, decision, chance, time. Reidel, Dordrecht, 1981) seems to demonstrate that if indicative conditionals have truth conditions, they cannot be stronger than material implication. Angelika Kratzer's theory that conditionals do not denote two-place operators purports to escape this result [see Kratzer (Chic Linguist Soc 22(2):1–15, 1986, 2012)]. In this note, I raise some trouble for Kratzer’s proposed method of escape and then show that her semantics avoids this consequence of Gibbard’s proof by denying (...) modus ponens. I also show that the same holds for Anthony Gillies’ semantics (Philos Rev 118(3):325–349, 2009) and argue that this consequence of these theories is not obviously prohibitive—hence, both remain viable theories of indicative conditionals. (shrink)

I discuss three observations about backtracking counterfactuals not predicted by existing theories, and then motivate a theory of counterfactuals that does predict them. On my theory, counterfactuals quantify over a suitably restricted set of historical possibilities from some contextually relevant past time. I motivate each feature of the theory relevant to predicting our three observations about backtracking counterfactuals. The paper concludes with replies to three potential objections.

I articulate the challenge disagreement poses for epistemic contextualism, and then discuss several possible replies on behalf of the contextualist.

本书以中国国学经典中的古代宇宙理论为线索, 通过经典国学中反映的我们祖先对宇宙世界的不同认知、描述与探索, 研究了中国古人不同时期朴素的唯物宇宙观及其演进发展历程, 反映了古人对外在世界的执着探索和认知水平.

According to operator theories, "if" denotes a two-place operator. According to restrictor theories, "if" doesn't contribute an operator of its own but instead merely restricts the domain of some co-occurring quantifier. The standard arguments (Lewis 1975, Kratzer 1986) for restrictor theories have it that operator theories (but not restrictor theories) struggle to predict the truth conditions of quantified conditionals like -/- (1) a. If John didn't work at home, he usually worked in his office. b. If John didn't work at (...) home, he must have worked in his office. -/- Gillies (2010) offers a context-shifty conditional operator theory that predicts the right truth conditions for epistemically modalized conditionals like (1b), thus undercutting one standard argument for restrictor theories. I explore how we might generalize Gillies' theory to adverbially quantified conditionals like (1a) and deontic conditionals, and argue that a natural generalization of Gillies' theory -- following his strategy for handling epistemically modalized conditionals -- won't work for these other conditionals because a crucial assumption that epistemic modal bases are closed (used to neutralize the epistemic quantification contributed by "if") doesn't have plausible analogs in these other domains. (shrink)

A middle fact is a true proposition about what would have happened had A been true (where A is in fact false), whose truth isn't entailed by any non-counterfactual facts. I argue that there are no middle facts; if there were, we wouldn't know them, and our ignorance of them would result in ignorance about whether regret is fitting in cases where we clearly know it is. But there's a problem. Consider an unflipped fair coin which is such that no (...) non-counterfactual fact determines that it would have landed heads had it been flipped (or tails had it been flipped). If there are no middle facts, it's not true that it would have landed heads had it been flipped nor that it would have landed tails had it been flipped. Yet each counterfactual is still possibly true for all we know. I argue that we can resolve this tension in the anti-middle fact position, further strengthening the case against middle facts. (shrink)