Results for 'Philip E. Tetlock'

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  1. Theory- versus imagination-driven thinking about historical counterfactuals: are we prisoners of our preconceptions?Philip E. Tetlock & Erika Henik - 2005 - In David R. Mandel, Denis J. Hilton & Patrizia Catellani (eds.), The Psychology of Counterfactual Thinking. Routledge.
     
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  2.  25
    Social functionalist frameworks for judgment and choice: Intuitive politicians, theologians, and prosecutors.Philip E. Tetlock - 2002 - Psychological Review 109 (3):451-471.
  3. Some thoughts about thought systems.Philip E. Tetlock - 1991 - In R. Wyer & T. Srull (eds.), The Content, Structure, and Operation of Thought Systems. Lawrence Erlbaum. pp. 4--197.
  4.  4
    Impression management versus intrapsychic explanations in social psychology: A useful dichotomy?Philip E. Tetlock & Antony S. Manstead - 1985 - Psychological Review 92 (1):59-77.
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  5.  25
    Should “systems thinkers” accept the limits on political forecasting or push the limits?Philip E. Tetlock, Michael C. Horowitz & Richard Herrmann - 2012 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 24 (3):375-391.
    Historical analysis and policy making often require counterfactual thought experiments that isolate hypothesized causes from a vast array of historical possibilities. However, a core precept of Jervis's ?systems thinking? is that causes are so interconnected that the historian can only with great difficulty imagine causation by subtracting all variables but one. Prediction, according to Jervis, is even more problematic: The more sensitive an event is to initial conditions (e.g., butterfly effects), the harder it is to derive accurate forecasts. Nevertheless, if (...)
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  6.  40
    Second thoughts about Expert Political Judgment: reply to the symposium.Philip E. Tetlock - 2010 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 22 (4):467-488.
  7.  9
    The Implicit Prejudice Exchange: Islands of Consensus in a Sea of Controversy.Philip E. Tetlock & Hal R. Arkes - 2004 - Psychological Inquiry 15 (4).
  8.  9
    The selfishness-altruism debate: In defense of agnosticism.Philip E. Tetlock - 1989 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 12 (4):723-724.
  9.  37
    Gauging the heuristic value of heuristics.Philip E. Tetlock - 2005 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 28 (4):562-563.
    Heuristics are necessary but far from sufficient explanations for moral judgment. This commentary stresses: (a) the need to complement cold, cognitive-economizing functionalist accounts with hot, value-expressive, social-identity-affirming accounts; and (b) the importance of conducting reflective-equilibrium thought and laboratory experiments that explore the permeability of the boundaries people place on the “thinkable.”.
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  10.  15
    The ever‐shifting psychological foundations of democratic theory: Do citizens have the right stuff?Philip E. Tetlock - 1998 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 12 (4):545-561.
    Abstract Timur Kuran's Private Truths, Public Lies makes a compelling case that people often misrepresent their private preferences in response to real or imagined social pressures, that the relative power of competing interest groups to punish opinion deviance and reward conformity determines the patterns and pervasiveness of preference falsification, and that preference falsifi?cation helps explain such diverse outcomes as the persistence and sudden collapse of communism and the precarious persistence of racial preferences in the United States and of the caste (...)
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  11.  30
    The consequences of taking consequentialism seriously.Philip E. Tetlock - 1994 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 17 (1):31-32.
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  12. Attributions of Implicit Prejudice, or "Would Jesse Jackson 'Fail' the Implicit Association Test?".Hal R. Arkes & Philip E. Tetlock - 2004 - Psychological Inquiry 15 (4):257-78.
  13.  32
    Debunking the Myth of Value-Neutral Virginity: Toward Truth in Scientific Advertising.David R. Mandel & Philip E. Tetlock - 2016 - Frontiers in Psychology 7.
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  14.  3
    The internal validity obsession.Gregory Mitchell & Philip E. Tetlock - 2022 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 45.
    Until social psychology devotes as much attention to construct and external validity as it does to internal validity, the field will continue to produce theories that fail to replicate in the field and cannot be used to meliorate social problems.
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  15.  14
    Correcting Judgment Correctives in National Security Intelligence.David R. Mandel & Philip E. Tetlock - 2018 - Frontiers in Psychology 9.
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  16.  79
    Political Diversity Will Improve Social Psychological Science.José L. Duarte, Jarret T. Crawford, Charlotta Stern, Jonathan Haidt, Lee Jussim & Philip E. Tetlock - 2015 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 38:1-54.
    Psychologists have demonstrated the value of diversity – particularly diversity of viewpoints – for enhancing creativity, discovery, and problem solving. But one key type of viewpoint diversity is lacking in academic psychology in general and social psychology in particular: political diversity. This article reviews the available evidence and finds support for four claims: Academic psychology once had considerable political diversity, but has lost nearly all of it in the last 50 years. This lack of political diversity can undermine the validity (...)
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  17.  56
    Cognitive appraisals and emotional experience: Further evidence.A. S. R. Manstead, Philip E. Tetlock & Tony Manstead - 1989 - Cognition and Emotion 3 (3):225-239.
  18.  29
    It may be harder than we thought, but political diversity will improve social psychological science.Jarret T. Crawford, José L. Duarte, Jonathan Haidt, Lee Jussim, Charlotta Stern & Philip E. Tetlock - 2015 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 38.
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  19.  13
    Tetlock and counterfactuals: Saving methodological ambition from empirical findings.Ian S. Lustick - 2010 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 22 (4):427-447.
    In five works spanning a decade, Philip E. Tetlock's interest in counterfactuals has changed. He began with an optimistic desire to make social science more rigorous by identifying best practices in the absence of non-imagined controls for experimentation. Soon, however, he adopted a more pessimistic analysis of the cognitive and psychological barriers facing experts. This shift was brought on by an awareness that experts are not rational Bayesians who continually update their theories to keep up with new information; (...)
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  20.  67
    Creation and Evolution: PHILIP E. DEVINE.Philip E. Devine - 1996 - Religious Studies 32 (3):325-337.
    Despite the bad reputation of the legal profession, law remains king in America. A highly diverse society relies on the laws to maintain a working sense of the dignity and inviability of each individual. And a persistent element in contemporary debates is the fear that naturalistic theories of the human person will erode our belief that we have a dignity greater than that of other natural objects. Thus the endurance of the creation vs. evolution debate is due less to the (...)
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  21.  6
    The Religious Significance of the Ontological Argument: PHILIP E.DEVINE.Philip E. Devine - 1975 - Religious Studies 11 (1):97-116.
    It seems clear that the ontological argument can no longer be dismissed as a silly fallacy. The dogma of the impossibility of necessary existence is seriously threatened by the case of necessary existential truths in mathematics, and as for the claim that the ontological argument must beg the question, since by mentioning God in the premise his existence is presupposed, it is undermined by the fact that we often refer to things—Hamlet for instance— we do not for a moment think (...)
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  22.  8
    When and why do hedgehogs and foxes differ?Frank C. Keil - 2010 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 22 (4):415-426.
    Philip E. Tetlock's finding that "hedgehog" experts are worse predictors than "foxes" offers fertile ground for future research. Are experts as likely to exhibit hedgehog- or fox-like tendencies in areas that call for explanatory, diagnostic, and skill-based expertise-as they did when Tetlock called on experts to make predictions? Do particular domains of expertise curtail or encourage different styles of expertise? Can we trace these different styles to childhood? Finally, can we nudge hedgehogs to be more like foxes? (...)
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  23.  15
    Judging judgment.Bruce Bueno de Mesquita - 2010 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 22 (4):355-388.
    Philip E. Tetlock and I agree that forecasting tools are best evaluated in peer-reviewed settings and in comparison not only to expert judgments, but also to alternative modeling strategies. Applying his suggested standards of assessment, however, certain forecasting models not only outperform expert judgments, but also have gone head-to-head with alternative models and outperformed them. This track record demonstrates the capability to make significant, reliable predictions of difficult, complex events. The record has unfolded, contrary to Tetlock's contention, (...)
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  24.  6
    Judging Judgment.Bruce de Mesquita - 2010 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 22 (4):355-388.
    Philip E. Tetlock and I agree that forecasting tools are best evaluated in peer-reviewed settings and in comparison not only to expert judgments, but also to alternative modeling strategies. Applying his suggested standards of assessment, however, certain forecasting models not only outperform expert judgments, but also have gone head-to-head with alternative models and outperformed them. This track record demonstrates the capability to make significant, reliable predictions of difficult, complex events. The record has unfolded, contrary to Tetlock's contention, (...)
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  25.  6
    When and why do hedgehogs and foxes differ?Frank C. Keil - 2010 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 22 (4):415-426.
    Philip E. Tetlock's finding that "hedgehog" experts are worse predictors than "foxes" offers fertile ground for future research. Are experts as likely to exhibit hedgehog- or fox-like tendencies in areas that call for explanatory, diagnostic, and skill-based expertise-as they did when Tetlock called on experts to make predictions? Do particular domains of expertise curtail or encourage different styles of expertise? Can we trace these different styles to childhood? Finally, can we nudge hedgehogs to be more like foxes? (...)
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  26.  46
    Kitcher, Philip., The Ethical Project.Philip E. Devine - 2013 - Review of Metaphysics 66 (3):579-581.
  27.  59
    The nature of belief systems in mass publics (1964).Philip E. Converse - 2006 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 18 (1-3):1-74.
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  28.  20
    Computational research on interaction and agency.Philip E. Agre - 1995 - Artificial Intelligence 72 (1-2):1-52.
  29.  12
    International Family Conference at Brussels--138.Philip E. Vernon - 1951 - The Eugenics Review 43 (3).
  30.  8
    Coping with stress: How cells do it. Stress proteins: Induction and function (1991). Ed. by M. J. Schlesinger, M. G. Santoro and E. Garcia. Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg viii+123 pp. £35.00, ISBN 3-540-52776-1. [REVIEW]Philip E. Mirkes - 1992 - Bioessays 14 (10):724-725.
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  31.  41
    Newton’s Hypotheses of Ether and of Gravitation from 1679 to 1693.Philip E. B. Jourdain - 1915 - The Monist 25 (2):234-254.
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  32.  19
    Race and intelligence.Philip E. Vernon - 1959 - The Eugenics Review 51 (2):99.
  33. A New Rumanian Journal of Rural Sociology.Philip E. Mosely - 1937
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  34. The Sociological School of Dimitrie Gusti.Philip E. Mosely - 1936
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  35. Generous or Parsimonious Cognitive Architecture? Cognitive Neuroscience and Theory of Mind: Articles.Philip Gerrans & Valerie E. Stone - 2008 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 59 (2):121-141.
    Recent work in cognitive neuroscience on the child's Theory of Mind has pursued the idea that the ability to metarepresent mental states depends on a domain-specific cognitive subystem implemented in specific neural circuitry: a Theory of Mind Module. We argue that the interaction of several domain-general mechanisms and lower-level domain-specific mechanisms accounts for the flexibility and sophistication of behavior, which has been taken to be evidence for a domain-specific ToM module. This finding is of more general interest since it suggests (...)
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  36. NATORP, Dr. PAUL. - Die logischen Grundlagen der Wissenschaften. [REVIEW]Philip E. B. Jourdain - 1911 - Mind 20:552.
     
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  37. Some Modern Advances in Logic.Philip E. B. Jourdain - 1912 - Philosophical Review 21:262.
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  38. Science Progress.Philip E. B. Jourdain - 1918 - The Monist 28:633.
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  39. The philosophy of Mr. Bertrand Russell, with an appendix of leading passages from certain other works.Philip E. B. Jourdain - 1921 - Revue Philosophique de la France Et de l'Etranger 92:291-292.
     
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  40. The Philosophical Works of Descartes Rendered into English, by Elizabeth S. Haldane and G. R. T. Ross. [REVIEW]Philip E. B. Jourdain - 1912 - International Journal of Ethics 23:236.
     
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  41.  49
    A Correction and Some Remarks.Philip E. B. Jourdain - 1913 - The Monist 23 (1):145-148.
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  42.  12
    Recent investigations of intelligence and its measurement.Philip E. Vernon - 1951 - The Eugenics Review 43 (3):125.
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  43.  13
    The Symbolic Worldview: Reply to Vera and Simon.Philip E. Agre - 1993 - Cognitive Science 17 (1):61-69.
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  44.  7
    The political ethos and human rights: An international perspective.Philip E. Jacob - forthcoming - Social Research: An International Quarterly.
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  45.  14
    [Miscellaneous].Philip E. B. Jourdan - 1912 - Mind 21 (83):470-471.
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  46.  11
    Revolutionary Semiotics. [REVIEW]Philip E. Lewis - 1974 - Diacritics 4 (3):28.
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  47.  3
    Plans and situated actions: The problem of human-machine communication.Philip E. Agre - 1990 - Artificial Intelligence 43 (3):369-384.
  48.  8
    Interview with Allen Newell.Philip E. Agre - 1993 - Artificial Intelligence 59 (1-2):415-449.
  49.  65
    The Moral Basis of Vegetarianism.Philip E. Devine - 1978 - Philosophy 53 (206):481-505.
    If someone abstains from meat-eating for reasons of taste or personal economics, no moral or philosophical question arises. But when a vegetarian attempts to persuade others that they, too, should adopt his diet, then what he says requires philosophical attention. While a vegetarian might argue in any number of ways, this essay will be concerned only with the argument for a vegetarian diet resting on a moral objection to the rearing and killing of animals for the human table. The vegetarian, (...)
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  50.  16
    Democratic theory and electoral reality.Philip E. Converse - 2006 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 18 (1-3):297-329.
    In response to the dozen essays published here, which relate my 1964 paper on ?The Nature of Belief Systems in the Mass Publics? to normative requirements of democratic theory, I note, inter alia, a major misinterpretation of my old argument, as well as needed revisions of that argument in the light of intervening data. Then I address the degree to which there may be some long?term secular change in the parameters that I originally laid out. In the final section, I (...)
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