Results for 'Philip E. Tetlock'

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  1.  33
    Impression management versus intrapsychic explanations in social psychology: A useful dichotomy?Philip E. Tetlock & Antony S. Manstead - 1985 - Psychological Review 92 (1):59-77.
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  2.  51
    Social functionalist frameworks for judgment and choice: Intuitive politicians, theologians, and prosecutors.Philip E. Tetlock - 2002 - Psychological Review 109 (3):451-471.
  3. Some thoughts about thought systems.Philip E. Tetlock - 1991 - In Robert S. Wyer & Thomas K. Srull, The Content, Structure, and Operation of Thought Systems. Lawrence Erlbaum. pp. 4--197.
  4.  62
    Should “Systems Thinkers” Accept the Limits on Political Forecasting or Push the Limits?Philip E. Tetlock, Michael C. Horowitz & Richard Herrmann - 2012 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 24 (3):375-391.
    Historical analysis and policy making often require counterfactual thought experiments that isolate hypothesized causes from a vast array of historical possibilities. However, a core precept of Jervis's “systems thinking” is that causes are so interconnected that the historian can only with great difficulty imagine causation by subtracting all variables but one. Prediction, according to Jervis, is even more problematic: The more sensitive an event is to initial conditions (e.g., butterfly effects), the harder it is to derive accurate forecasts. Nevertheless, if (...)
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  5.  23
    Tracking Forecasting Accuracy of Geopolitical Schools of Thought—and Causes of Their Predictive Successes and Failures.Philip E. Tetlock - 2024 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 36 (4):515-525.
    International relations theories have often been faulted for not advancing falsifiable forecasts. Given the complexities of geopolitics and the near impossibility of satisfying the “ceteris paribus” clause in scientific hypothesis testing, this criticism imposes an unfair standard. It is reasonable however to ask about the predictive track records of international relations theorists who enter high-stakes policy debates. Whether a neorealist of neo-institutionalist proves an adroit or maladroit forecaster sheds little light on the truth status of their preferred theory but considerable (...)
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  6.  24
    The Implicit Prejudice Exchange: Islands of Consensus in a Sea of Controversy.Philip E. Tetlock & Hal R. Arkes - 2004 - Psychological Inquiry 15 (4).
  7.  31
    The selfishness-altruism debate: In defense of agnosticism.Philip E. Tetlock - 1989 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 12 (4):723-724.
  8.  77
    Second thoughts about Expert Political Judgment: reply to the symposium.Philip E. Tetlock - 2010 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 22 (4):467-488.
  9. Attributions of Implicit Prejudice, or "Would Jesse Jackson 'Fail' the Implicit Association Test?".Hal R. Arkes & Philip E. Tetlock - 2004 - Psychological Inquiry 15 (4):257-78.
  10. Theory- versus imagination-driven thinking about historical counterfactuals: are we prisoners of our preconceptions?Philip E. Tetlock & Erika Henik - 2005 - In David R. Mandel, Denis J. Hilton & Patrizia Catellani, The psychology of counterfactual thinking. New York: Routledge.
     
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  11.  59
    The consequences of taking consequentialism seriously.Philip E. Tetlock - 1994 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 17 (1):31-32.
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  12.  72
    Gauging the heuristic value of heuristics.Philip E. Tetlock - 2005 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 28 (4):562-563.
    Heuristics are necessary but far from sufficient explanations for moral judgment. This commentary stresses: (a) the need to complement cold, cognitive-economizing functionalist accounts with hot, value-expressive, social-identity-affirming accounts; and (b) the importance of conducting reflective-equilibrium thought and laboratory experiments that explore the permeability of the boundaries people place on the “thinkable.”.
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  13.  14
    The internal validity obsession.Gregory Mitchell & Philip E. Tetlock - 2022 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 45.
    Until social psychology devotes as much attention to construct and external validity as it does to internal validity, the field will continue to produce theories that fail to replicate in the field and cannot be used to meliorate social problems.
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  14.  39
    The ever‐shifting psychological foundations of democratic theory: Do citizens have the right stuff? [REVIEW]Philip E. Tetlock - 1998 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 12 (4):545-561.
    Timur Kuran's Private Truths, Public Lies makes a compelling case that people often misrepresent their private preferences in response to real or imagined social pressures, that the relative power of competing interest groups to punish opinion deviance and reward conformity determines the patterns and pervasiveness of preference falsification, and that preference falsifi‐cation helps explain such diverse outcomes as the persistence and sudden collapse of communism and the precarious persistence of racial preferences in the United States and of the caste system (...)
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  15.  32
    Correcting Judgment Correctives in National Security Intelligence.David R. Mandel & Philip E. Tetlock - 2018 - Frontiers in Psychology 9:428814.
    Intelligence analysts, like other professionals, form norms that define standards of tradecraft excellence. These norms, however, have evolved in an idiosyncratic manner that reflects the influence of prominent insiders who had keen psychological insights but little appreciation for how to translate those insights into testable hypotheses. The net result is that the prevailing tradecraft norms of best practice are only loosely grounded in the science of judgment and decision-making. The “common sense” of prestigious opinion leaders inside the intelligence community has (...)
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  16.  57
    Debunking the Myth of Value-Neutral Virginity: Toward Truth in Scientific Advertising.David R. Mandel & Philip E. Tetlock - 2016 - Frontiers in Psychology 7.
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  17. Political diversity will improve social psychological science.José L. Duarte, Jarret T. Crawford, Charlotta Stern, Jonathan Haidt, Lee Jussim & Philip E. Tetlock - 2015 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 38:1-54.
    Psychologists have demonstrated the value of diversity – particularly diversity of viewpoints – for enhancing creativity, discovery, and problem solving. But one key type of viewpoint diversity is lacking in academic psychology in general and social psychology in particular: political diversity. This article reviews the available evidence and finds support for four claims: (1) Academic psychology once had considerable political diversity, but has lost nearly all of it in the last 50 years. (2) This lack of political diversity can undermine (...)
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  18.  13
    Assume a can opener.Cory J. Clark, Calvin Isch, Paul Connor & Philip E. Tetlock - 2024 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 47:e36.
    We propose a friendly amendment to integrative experiment design (IED), adversarial-collaboration IED, that incentivizes research teams from competing theoretical perspectives to identify zones of the design space where they possess an explanatory edge. This amendment is especially critical in debates that have high policy stakes and carry a strong normative-political charge that might otherwise prevent free exchange of ideas.
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  19.  64
    It may be harder than we thought, but political diversity will improve social psychological science.Jarret T. Crawford, José L. Duarte, Jonathan Haidt, Lee Jussim, Charlotta Stern & Philip E. Tetlock - 2015 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 38.
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  20.  88
    Cognitive appraisals and emotional experience: Further evidence.A. S. R. Manstead, Philip E. Tetlock & Tony Manstead - 1989 - Cognition and Emotion 3 (3):225-239.
  21.  45
    Tetlock and counterfactuals: Saving methodological ambition from empirical findings.Ian S. Lustick - 2010 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 22 (4):427-447.
    In five works spanning a decade, Philip E. Tetlock's interest in counterfactuals has changed. He began with an optimistic desire to make social science more rigorous by identifying best practices in the absence of non-imagined controls for experimentation. Soon, however, he adopted a more pessimistic analysis of the cognitive and psychological barriers facing experts. This shift was brought on by an awareness that experts are not rational Bayesians who continually update their theories to keep up with new information; (...)
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  22.  39
    Judging Judgment.Bruce Bueno de Mesquita - 2010 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 22 (4):355-388.
    Philip E. Tetlock and I agree that forecasting tools are best evaluated in peer-reviewed settings and in comparison not only to expert judgments, but also to alternative modeling strategies. Applying his suggested standards of assessment, however, certain forecasting models not only outperform expert judgments, but also have gone head-to-head with alternative models and outperformed them. This track record demonstrates the capability to make significant, reliable predictions of difficult, complex events. The record has unfolded, contrary to Tetlock's contention, (...)
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  23.  75
    When and Why Do Hedgehogs and Foxes Differ?Frank C. Keil - 2010 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 22 (4):415-426.
    Philip E. Tetlock's finding that "hedgehog" experts (those with one big theory) are worse predictors than "foxes" (those with multiple, less comprehensive theories) offers fertile ground for future research. Are experts as likely to exhibit hedgehog- or fox-like tendencies in areas that call for explanatory, diagnostic, and skill-based expertise-as they did when Tetlock called on experts to make predictions? Do particular domains of expertise curtail or encourage different styles of expertise? Can we trace these different styles to (...)
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  24. The nature of belief systems in mass publics (1964).Philip E. Converse - 2006 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 18 (1-3):1-74.
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  25.  73
    Kitcher, Philip., The Ethical Project.Philip E. Devine - 2013 - Review of Metaphysics 66 (3):579-581.
  26.  47
    Computational research on interaction and agency.Philip E. Agre - 1995 - Artificial Intelligence 72 (1-2):1-52.
  27.  32
    The Symbolic Worldview: Reply to Vera and Simon.Philip E. Agre - 1993 - Cognitive Science 17 (1):61-69.
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  28.  35
    Intelligence: Some neglected topics.Philip E. Vernon - 1984 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 7 (2):302.
  29.  18
    The Discourse of the Maxim.Philip E. Lewis - 1972 - Diacritics 2 (3):41.
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  30.  74
    A Mathematical Paradox.Philip E. B. Jourdain - 1910 - The Monist 20 (1):134-135.
  31.  62
    Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz (1646-1716).Philip E. B. Jourdain - 1916 - The Monist 26 (4):481-485.
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  32.  15
    Against Interrogational Torture: Upholding a Troubled Taboo.Philip E. Devine - 2018 - In David Boonin, Palgrave Handbook of Philosophy and Public Policy. Cham: Palgrave Macmillan. pp. 123-133.
    Until recently, torture was regarded as an unthinkable act. But in the dark years following September 11, 2001, many people have defended it openly as they have many other kinds of action previously considered taboo. And the underlying issues are complicated. Yet at least a virtually absolute prohibition on interrogational torture can be rationally defended.
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  33.  66
    The Lotus Sutra and Process Philosophy.Philip E. Devenish - 2001 - Buddhist-Christian Studies 21 (1):119-122.
    In lieu of an abstract, here is a brief excerpt of the content:Buddhist-Christian Studies 21.1 (2001) 119-122 [Access article in PDF] The Lotus Sutra and Process Philosophy Philip E.Devenish Rissho Kosei-kai In 1994, Rissho Kosei-kai began to sponsor an annual summer conference to which international scholars were invited to discuss and explore the Lotus Sutra. Some of the earlier conferences focused on themes such as "The Lotus Sutra and Ethics" and "The Lotus Sutra and Social Responsibility." These conferences have (...)
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  34.  30
    Notes on Zeno's arguments on motion.Philip E. B. Jourdain - 1919 - Mind 28 (109):123-124.
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  35. The flying arrow: An anachronism.Philip E. B. Jourdain - 1916 - Mind 25 (97):42-55.
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  36.  18
    Plans and situated actions: The problem of human-machine communication.Philip E. Agre - 1990 - Artificial Intelligence 43 (3):369-384.
  37.  71
    Supporting the intellectual life of a democratic society.Philip E. Agre - 2001 - Ethics and Information Technology 3 (4):289-298.
  38.  30
    The market logic of information.Philip E. Agre - 2000 - Knowledge, Technology & Policy 13 (3):67-77.
    Futurists have imagined the Internet as a separate “cyberspace” and as a force for an idealized marketplace. Business practice and economic theory, however, lead to a different picture. (1) “Always-on” connections bring new interface problems and social skills. (2) Reduced transaction costs and increased economies of scale bring outsourcing, concentration, and globalized economy of focused monopolies. (3) The economies of scope inherent in modular computing systems bring “shallow diversity”: processes and products generated by a common underlying framework. This new picture (...)
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  39.  28
    Interview with Allen Newell.Philip E. Agre - 1993 - Artificial Intelligence 59 (1-2):415-449.
  40.  52
    Acting and Refraining/Intention and Foresight.Philip E. Devine - 1987 - Dialogue 26 (1):87.
    It is commonplace that negative duties are more stringent than positive duties. it is also commonplace that this distinction requires defense, in particular against those who regard it as a mere apology for the privileges of the wealthy and secure. i conclude, though real, the distinction between negative and positive duties is not as deep as some philosophers have supposed--that it makes best sense in terms of a deeper distinction between the intended and the foreseen consequences of our actions.
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  41.  58
    Against Superkitten Ethics.Philip E. Devine - 2011 - International Philosophical Quarterly 51 (4):429-436.
    I here criticize the use of science-fiction examples in ethics, chiefly, though not solely, by defenders of abortion. We have no reliable intuitions concerning such examples—certainly nothing strong enough to set against the strong intuition that infanticide is virtually always wrong.
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  42.  60
    Gottes Trauer une Klage in der rabbinischen Überlieferung (Talmud und Midrasch).Philip E. Devinish - 1982 - Process Studies 12 (3):192-195.
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  43.  77
    Logic and Psychology.Philip E. B. Jourdain - 1917 - The Monist 27 (3):460-467.
  44.  76
    Mr. Bertrand Russell’s First Work on the Principles of Mathematics.Philip E. B. Jourdain - 1912 - The Monist 22 (1):149-158.
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  45. Some Modern Advances in Logic.Philip E. B. Jourdain - 1912 - Philosophical Review 21:262.
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  46.  74
    The Purely Ordinal Conceptions of Mathematics and Their Significance for Mathematical Physics.Philip E. B. Jourdain - 1915 - The Monist 25 (1):140-144.
  47.  88
    Cause and Effect I.Philip E. B. Jourdain - 1919 - The Monist 29 (3):453-467.
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  48.  72
    Richard Dedekind.Philip E. B. Jourdain - 1916 - The Monist 26 (3):415-427.
  49. Matthew 4:1–11.Philip E. Thompson - 2006 - Interpretation: A Journal of Bible and Theology 60 (1):72-74.
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  50. Jeremiah 1:1–10.Philip E. Thompson - 2008 - Interpretation: A Journal of Bible and Theology 62 (1):66-68.
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