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  1.  80
    Laplace’s Demon and the Adventures of His Apprentices.Roman Frigg, Seamus Bradley, Hailiang Du & Leonard A. Smith - 2014 - Philosophy of Science 81 (1):31-59.
    The sensitive dependence on initial conditions associated with nonlinear models imposes limitations on the models’ predictive power. We draw attention to an additional limitation than has been underappreciated, namely, structural model error. A model has SME if the model dynamics differ from the dynamics in the target system. If a nonlinear model has only the slightest SME, then its ability to generate decision-relevant predictions is compromised. Given a perfect model, we can take the effects of SDIC into account by substituting (...)
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  2. An Assessment of the Foundational Assumptions in High-Resolution Climate Projections: The Case of UKCP09.Roman Frigg, Leonard A. Smith & David A. Stainforth - unknown
    The United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme’s UKCP09 project makes high-resolution projections of the climate out to 2100 by post-processing the outputs of a large-scale global climate model. The aim of this paper is to describe and analyse the methodology used and then urge some caution. Given the acknowledged systematic, shared errors of all current climate models, treating model outputs as decision-relevant projections can be significantly misleading. In extrapolatory situations, such as projections of future climate change, there is little reason to (...)
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  3.  65
    The Myopia of Imperfect Climate Models: The Case of UKCP09.Roman Frigg, Leonard A. Smith & David A. Stainforth - 2013 - Philosophy of Science 80 (5):886-897.
    The United Kingdom Climate Impacts Program’s UKCP09 project makes high-resolution forecasts of climate during the 21st century using state of the art global climate models. The aim of this paper is to introduce and analyze the methodology used and then urge some caution. Given the acknowledged systematic errors in all current climate models, treating model outputs as decision relevant probabilistic forecasts can be seriously misleading. This casts doubt on our ability, today, to make trustworthy, high-resolution predictions out to the end (...)
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  4.  45
    Adaptation to Global Warming: Do Climate Models Tell Us What We Need to Know?Naomi Oreskes, David A. Stainforth & Leonard A. Smith - 2010 - Philosophy of Science 77 (5):1012-1028.
    Scientific experts have confirmed that anthropogenic warming is underway, and some degree of adaptation is now unavoidable. However, the details of impacts on the scale of climate change at which humans would have to prepare for and adjust to them are still the subject of considerable research, inquiry, and debate. Planning for adaptation requires information on the scale over which human organizations and institutions have authority and capacity, yet the general circulation models lack forecasting skill at these scales, and attempts (...)
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  5.  34
    Probabilistic Forecasting: Why Model Imperfection is a Poison Pill.Roman Frigg, Seamus Bradley, Reason L. Machete & Leonard A. Smith - 2013 - In .
    This volume is a serious attempt to open up the subject of European philosophy of science to real thought, and provide the structural basis for the interdisciplinary development of its specialist fields, but also to provoke reflection on the idea of ‘European philosophy of science’. This efforts should foster a contemporaneous reflection on what might be meant by philosophy of science in Europe and European philosophy of science, and how in fact awareness of it could assist philosophers interpret and motivate (...)
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  6.  1
    Probabilistic Forecasting: Why Model Imperfection is a Poison Pill.Roman Frigg, Seamus Bradley, Reason L. Machete & Leonard A. Smith - 2013 - In Hanne Andersen, Dennis Dieks, Wenceslao Gonzalez, Thomas Ubel & Gregory Wheeler (eds.), New Challenges to Philosophy of Science. pp. 479-492.
    This volume is a serious attempt to open up the subject of European philosophy of science to real thought, and provide the structural basis for the interdisciplinary development of its specialist fields, but also to provoke reflection on the idea of ‘European philosophy of science’. This efforts should foster a contemporaneous reflection on what might be meant by philosophy of science in Europe and European philosophy of science, and how in fact awareness of it could assist philosophers interpret and motivate (...)
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  7.  4
    Laplace's Demon and Climate Change.Roman Frigg, Seamus Bradley, Hailiang Du & Leonard A. Smith - unknown
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  8. Beyond the Shadow Lies Doubt.R. Bishop & Leonard A. Smith - forthcoming - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science.
     
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  9. An ineffective antidote for hawkmoths.Roman Frigg & Leonard A. Smith - 2022 - European Journal for Philosophy of Science 12 (2):1-24.
    In recent publications we have drawn attention to the fact that if the dynamics of a model is structurally unstable, then the presence of structural model error places in-principle limits on the model’s ability to generate decision-relevant probability forecasts. Writing with a varying array of co-authors, Eric Winsberg has now produced at least four publications in which he dismisses our points as unfounded; the most recent of these appeared in this journal. In this paper we respond to the arguments of (...)
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