Cooperation towards public goods relies on credible threats of punishment to deter cheats. However, punishing is costly, so it remains unclear who incurred the costs of enforcement in our evolutionary past. Theoretical work suggests that human cooperation may be promoted if people believe in supernatural punishment for moral transgressions. This theory is supported by new work in cognitive psychology and by anecdotal ethnographic evidence, but formal quantitative tests remain to be done. Using data from 186 societies around the globe, I (...) test whether the likelihood of supernatural punishment—indexed by the importance of moralizing “high gods”—is associated with cooperation. (shrink)

In How States Think, John Mearsheimer and Sebastian Rosato argue that the two dominant approaches to decision-making in international politics—rational choice theory and political psychology—are fundamentally flawed. Instead, they propose a model of rationality in which individuals use “credible theories” of how the world works to guide their assessments, and elites deliberate over these theories to determine foreign policy. I suggest that existing theory is too hastily rejected, and that these apparently opposing models can be reconciled by taking an evolutionary (...) perspective—the process by which humans and human brains were built and therefore a critical, yet missing, part of the puzzle. An evolutionary perspective suggests: (1) rational choice is not always the most effective or efficient solution to decision-making problems; (2) cognitive biases are not mistakes, but adaptive “strategic instincts,” which evolved because they helped us make good decisions, not bad ones; (3) these “non-rational” dispositions follow a systematic pattern, allowing predictions about how people are likely to react under given conditions; (4) a theory for the origins of preferences; (5) an explanation for why humans can sometimes seem rational and sometimes non-rational (because adaptive behavior depends on context); and finally (6) error management theory suggests that cognitive biases evolved precisely because of uncertainty, as a way of minimizing costs over time. Human decision-making and behavior does not match the definition of either “rationality” or “non-rationality,” and is much better described as “adaptive rationality,” honed over the millennia to compete strategically for survival and reproduction under conditions of uncertainty. (shrink)