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  1.  62
    The psychology of counterfactual thinking.David R. Mandel, Denis J. Hilton & Patrizia Catellani (eds.) - 2005 - New York: Routledge.
    It is human nature to wonder how things might have turned out differently--either for the better or for the worse. For the past two decades psychologists have been intrigued by this phenomenon, which they call counterfactual thinking. Specifically, researchers have sought to answer the "big" questions: Why do people have such a strong propensity to generate counterfactuals, and what functions does counterfactual thinking serve? What are the determinants of counterfactual thinking, and what are its adaptive and psychological consequences? This important (...)
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  2.  28
    Judgment dissociation theory: An analysis of differences in causal, counterfactual and covariational reasoning.David R. Mandel - 2003 - Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 132 (3):419.
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  3.  37
    Risky‐choice framing and rational decision‐making.Sarah A. Fisher & David R. Mandel - 2021 - Philosophy Compass 16 (8):e12763.
    This article surveys the latest research on risky-choice framing effects, focusing on the implications for rational decision-making. An influential program of psychological research suggests that people's judgements and decisions depend on the way in which information is presented, or ‘framed’. In a central choice paradigm, decision-makers seem to adopt different preferences, and different attitudes to risk, depending on whether the options specify the number of people who will be saved or the corresponding number who will die. It is standardly assumed (...)
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  4.  19
    Instruction in information structuring improves Bayesian judgment in intelligence analysts.David R. Mandel - 2015 - Frontiers in Psychology 6:137593.
    An experiment was conducted to test the effectiveness of brief instruction in information structuring (i.e., representing and integrating information) for improving the coherence of probability judgments and binary choices among intelligence analysts. Forty-three analysts were presented with comparable sets of Bayesian judgment problems before and immediately after instruction. After instruction, analysts’ probability judgments were more coherent (i.e., more additive and compliant with Bayes theorem). Instruction also improved the coherence of binary choices regarding category membership: after instruction, subjects were more likely (...)
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  5.  27
    Violations of coherence in subjective probability: A representational and assessment processes account.David R. Mandel - 2008 - Cognition 106 (1):130-156.
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  6.  9
    Political Identity Over Personal Impact: Early U.S. Reactions to the COVID-19 Pandemic.Robert N. Collins, David R. Mandel & Sarah S. Schywiola - 2021 - Frontiers in Psychology 12.
    Research suggests political identity has strong influence over individuals’ attitudes and beliefs, which in turn can affect their behavior. Likewise, firsthand experience with an issue can also affect attitudes and beliefs. A large survey of Americans was analyzed to investigate the effects of both political identity and personal impact on individuals’ reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic. Results show that political identity and personal impact influenced the American public’s attitudes about and response to COVID-19. Consistent with prior research, political identity exerted (...)
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  7. Counterfactual and causal explanation: from early theoretical views to new frontiers.David R. Mandel - 2005 - In David R. Mandel, Denis J. Hilton & Patrizia Catellani (eds.), The Psychology of Counterfactual Thinking. Routledge.
     
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  8.  3
    Framing, equivalence, and rational inference.David R. Mandel - 2022 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 45:e234.
    Bermúdez's case for rational framing effects, while original, is unconvincing and gives only parenthetical treatment to the problematic assumptions of extensional and semantic equivalence of alternative frames in framing experiments. If the assumptions are false, which they sometimes are, no valid inferences about “framing effects” follow and, then, neither do inferences about human rationality. This commentary recaps the central problem.
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  9.  6
    Verbal and numeric probabilities differentially shape decisions.Robert N. Collins, David R. Mandel & Brooke A. MacLeod - 2024 - Thinking and Reasoning 30 (1):235-257.
    Experts often communicate probabilities verbally (e.g., unlikely) rather than numerically (e.g., 25% chance). Although criticism has focused on the vagueness of verbal probabilities, less attention has been given to the potential unintended, biasing effects of verbal probabilities in communicating probabilities to decision-makers. In four experiments (Ns = 201, 439, 435, 696), we showed that probability format (i.e., verbal vs. numeric) influenced participants’ inferences and decisions following a hypothetical financial expert’s forecast. We observed a format effect for low probability forecasts: verbal (...)
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  10.  15
    Teaching & learning guide for: Risky‐choice framing and rational decision‐making.Sarah A. Fisher & David R. Mandel - 2021 - Philosophy Compass 16 (12):e12794.
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  11.  96
    Effect of counterfactual and factual thinking on causal judgements.David R. Mandel - 2003 - Thinking and Reasoning 9 (3):245 – 265.
    The significance of counterfactual thinking in the causal judgement process has been emphasized for nearly two decades, yet no previous research has directly compared the relative effect of thinking counterfactually versus factually on causal judgement. Three experiments examined this comparison by manipulating the task frame used to focus participants' thinking about a target event. Prior to making judgements about causality, preventability, blame, and control, participants were directed to think about a target actor either in counterfactual terms (what the actor could (...)
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  12.  16
    Editorial: Judgment and Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Descriptive, Normative, and Prescriptive Perspectives.David R. Mandel, Gorka Navarrete, Nathan Dieckmann & Jonathan Nelson - 2019 - Frontiers in Psychology 10.
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  13.  36
    Debunking the Myth of Value-Neutral Virginity: Toward Truth in Scientific Advertising.David R. Mandel & Philip E. Tetlock - 2016 - Frontiers in Psychology 7.
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  14.  29
    Differential focus in causal and counterfactual thinking: Different possibilities or different functions?David R. Mandel - 2007 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 30 (5-6):460-461.
    In The Rational Imagination, Byrne proposes a mental models account of why causal and counterfactual thinking often focus on different antecedents. This review critically examines the two central propositions of her account, finding both only weakly defensible. Byrne's account is contrasted with judgment dissociation theory, which offers a functional explanation for differences in the focus of causal and counterfactual thinking.
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  15.  15
    Editorial: Improving Bayesian Reasoning: What Works and Why?David R. Mandel & Gorka Navarrete - 2015 - Frontiers in Psychology 6.
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  16. The Obedience Alibi.David R. Mandel - 1998 - Analyse & Kritik 20 (S 74):94.
    Stanley Milgram's work on obedience to authority is social psychology's most influential contribution to theorizing about Holocaust perpetration. The gist of Milgram's claims is that Holocaust perpetrators were just following orders out of a sense of obligation to their superiors. Milgram, however, never undertook a scholarly analysis of how his obedience experiments related to the Holocaust. The author first discusses the major theoretical limitations of Milgram's position and then examines the implications of Milgram's experimental manipulations for Holocaust theorizing, contrasting a (...)
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  17.  67
    Forecasted risk taking in youth: evidence for a bounded-rationality perspective.Mandeep K. Dhami & David R. Mandel - 2012 - Synthese 189 (S1):161-171.
    This research examined whether youth's forecasted risk taking is best predicted by a compensatory (namely, subjective expected utility) or non-compensatory (e.g., single-factor) model. Ninety youth assessed the importance of perceived benefits, importance of perceived drawbacks, subjective probability of benefits, and subjective probability of drawbacks for 16 risky behaviors clustered evenly into recreational and health/safety domains. In both domains, there was strong support for a noncompensatory model in which only the perceived importance of the benefits of engaging in a risky behavior (...)
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  18.  8
    Predicting Clinical Trial Results: A Synthesis of Five Empirical Studies and Their Implications.Jonathan Kimmelman, David R. Mandel & David M. Benjamin - 2023 - Perspectives in Biology and Medicine 66 (1):107-128.
    Abstractabstract:Expectations about future events underlie practically every decision we make, including those in medical research. This paper reviews five studies undertaken to assess how well medical experts could predict the outcomes of clinical trials. It explains why expert trial forecasting was the focus of study and argues that forecasting skill affords insights into the quality of expert judgment and might be harnessed to improve decision-making in care, policy, and research. The paper also addresses potential criticisms of the research agenda and (...)
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  19.  19
    Correcting Judgment Correctives in National Security Intelligence.David R. Mandel & Philip E. Tetlock - 2018 - Frontiers in Psychology 9:428814.
    Intelligence analysts, like other professionals, form norms that define standards of tradecraft excellence. These norms, however, have evolved in an idiosyncratic manner that reflects the influence of prominent insiders who had keen psychological insights but little appreciation for how to translate those insights into testable hypotheses. The net result is that the prevailing tradecraft norms of best practice are only loosely grounded in the science of judgment and decision-making. The “common sense” of prestigious opinion leaders inside the intelligence community has (...)
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  20.  9
    Communicating numeric quantities in context: implications for decision science and rationality claims.David R. Mandel - 2015 - Frontiers in Psychology 6.
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  21.  19
    Cognitive Style and Frame Susceptibility in Decision-Making.David R. Mandel & Irina V. Kapler - 2018 - Frontiers in Psychology 9:375475.
    The susceptibility of decision-makers’ choices to variations in option framing has been attributed to individual differences in cognitive style. According to this view, individuals who are prone to a more deliberate, or less intuitive, thinking style are less susceptible to framing manipulations. Research findings on the topic, however, have tended to yield small effects, with several studies also being limited in inferential value by methodological drawbacks. We report two experiments that examined the value of several cognitive-style variables, including measures of (...)
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  22.  1
    Is generalization decay a fundamental law of psychology?David R. Mandel - 2024 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 47:e54.
    Generalizations strengthen in traditional sciences, but in psychology (and social and behavioral sciences, more generally) they decay. This is usually viewed as a problem requiring solution. It could be viewed instead as a law-like phenomenon. Generalization decay cannot be squelched because human behavior is metastable and all behavioral data collected thus far have resulted from a thin sliver of human time.
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  23.  17
    Nested sets theory, full stop: Explaining performance on bayesian inference tasks without dual-systems assumptions.David R. Mandel - 2007 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 30 (3):275-276.
    Consistent with Barbey & Sloman (B&S), it is proposed that performance on Bayesian inference tasks is well explained by nested sets theory (NST). However, contrary to those authors' view, it is proposed that NST does better by dispelling with dual-systems assumptions. This article examines why, and sketches out a series of NST's core principles, which were not previously defined.
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  24.  5
    of Causal and Counterfactual Explanation.David R. Mandel - 2011 - In Christoph Hoerl, Teresa McCormack & Sarah R. Beck (eds.), Understanding Counterfactuals, Understanding Causation. Oxford University Press. pp. 147.
  25.  31
    On the meaning and function of normative analysis: Conceptual blur in the rationality debate?David R. Mandel - 2000 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 23 (5):686-687.
    The rationality debate centers on the meaning of deviations of decision makers' responses from the predictions/prescriptions of normative models. But for the debate to have significance, the meaning and functions of normative analysis must be clear. Presently, they are not, and the debate's persistence owes much to conceptual blur. An attempt is made here to clarify the concept of normative analysis.
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  26.  22
    Predicting blame assignment in a case of negligent harm.David R. Mandel - 2010 - Mind and Society 9 (1):5-17.
    Theories of blame posit that observers consider causality, controllability, and foreseeability when assigning blame to actors. The present study examined which of these factors, either on their own or in interaction, predicted blame assigned to actors in a case of harm caused by negligence. The findings revealed that only causal impact ratings predicted blame. The findings also revealed a novel form of asymmetric discounting: the causal impact of a negligent actor was used to discount blame assigned to an innocent actor, (...)
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  27.  21
    Suicide terrorism, moral relativism, and the situationist narrative.David R. Mandel - 2014 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 37 (4):373-373.
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  28.  48
    Taboo or tragic: effect of tradeoff type on moral choice, conflict, and confidence. [REVIEW]David R. Mandel & Oshin Vartanian - 2008 - Mind and Society 7 (2):215-226.
    Historically, cognitivists considered moral choices to be determined by analytic processes. Recent theories, however, have emphasized the role of intuitive processes in determining moral choices. We propose that the engagement of analytic and intuitive processes is contingent on the type of tradeoff being considered. Specifically, when a tradeoff necessarily violates a moral principle no matter what choice is made, as in tragic tradeoffs, its resolution should result in greater moral conflict and less confidence in choice than when the tradeoff offers (...)
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