4 found
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  1. An Assessment of the Foundational Assumptions in High-Resolution Climate Projections: The Case of UKCP09.Roman Frigg, Leonard A. Smith & David A. Stainforth - unknown
    The United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme’s UKCP09 project makes high-resolution projections of the climate out to 2100 by post-processing the outputs of a large-scale global climate model. The aim of this paper is to describe and analyse the methodology used and then urge some caution. Given the acknowledged systematic, shared errors of all current climate models, treating model outputs as decision-relevant projections can be significantly misleading. In extrapolatory situations, such as projections of future climate change, there is little reason to (...)
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    The Myopia of Imperfect Climate Models: The Case of UKCP09.Roman Frigg, Leonard A. Smith & David A. Stainforth - 2013 - Philosophy of Science 80 (5):886-897.
    The United Kingdom Climate Impacts Program’s UKCP09 project makes high-resolution forecasts of climate during the 21st century using state of the art global climate models. The aim of this paper is to introduce and analyze the methodology used and then urge some caution. Given the acknowledged systematic errors in all current climate models, treating model outputs as decision relevant probabilistic forecasts can be seriously misleading. This casts doubt on our ability, today, to make trustworthy, high-resolution predictions out to the end (...)
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  3. On the Appropriate and Inappropriate Uses of Probability Distributions in Climate Projections and Some Alternatives.Joel Katzav, Erica L. Thompson, James Risbey, David A. Stainforth, Seamus Bradley & Mathias Frisch - 2021 - Climatic Change 169 (15).
    When do probability distribution functions (PDFs) about future climate misrepresent uncertainty? How can we recognise when such misrepresentation occurs and thus avoid it in reasoning about or communicating our uncertainty? And when we should not use a PDF, what should we do instead? In this paper we address these three questions. We start by providing a classification of types of uncertainty and using this classification to illustrate when PDFs misrepresent our uncertainty in a way that may adversely affect decisions. We (...)
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    Adaptation to Global Warming: Do Climate Models Tell Us What We Need to Know?Naomi Oreskes, David A. Stainforth & Leonard A. Smith - 2010 - Philosophy of Science 77 (5):1012-1028.
    Scientific experts have confirmed that anthropogenic warming is underway, and some degree of adaptation is now unavoidable. However, the details of impacts on the scale of climate change at which humans would have to prepare for and adjust to them are still the subject of considerable research, inquiry, and debate. Planning for adaptation requires information on the scale over which human organizations and institutions have authority and capacity, yet the general circulation models lack forecasting skill at these scales, and attempts (...)
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