The fallacy beneath the base rate fallacy is that we know what a base rate is. We talk as if base rates and individuating information were two different kinds of information. From a Bayesian perspective, however, the only difference between base rate and individuating information is – which comes first.

The conflict between drug and conventional rewards leads to a paradox: Sanctions against drug use decrease access to conventional rewards and push drug users toward drug abuse, whereas increased access to the rewards of family, friends, and work may help reduce drug abuse. Lack of control is not specific to drug addiction and is unlikely to yield to a shift in bookkeeping.