Results for 'Bayes’s Theorem'

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  1.  4
    Bayes's Theorem.Richard Swinburne (ed.) - 2002 - Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press UK.
    Bayes's theorem is a tool for assessing how probable evidence makes some hypothesis. The papers in this volume consider the worth and applicability of the theorem. Richard Swinburne sets out the philosophical issues. Elliott Sober argues that there are other criteria for assessing hypotheses. Colin Howson, Philip Dawid and John Earman consider how the theorem can be used in statistical science, in weighing evidence in criminal trials, and in assessing evidence for the occurrence of miracles. David Miller (...)
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  2.  95
    Bayes's Theorem.E. Eells - 2008 - Gogoa 8 (1):138.
    In introducing the papers of the symposiasts, I distinguish between statistical, physical, and evidential probability. The axioms of the probability calculus and so Bayes’s theorem can be expressed in terms of any of these kinds of probability. Sober questions the general utility of the theorem. Howson, Dawid, and Earman agree that it applies to the fields they discuss--statistics, assessment of guilt by juries, and miracles. Dawid and Earman consider that prior probabilities need to be supplied by empirical (...)
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  3. Bayes's theorem and weighing evidence by juries.A. P. Dawid - 2002 - In Bayes's Theorem. pp. 71-90.
     
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  4. Bayes's theorem[REVIEW]Massimo Pigliucci - 2005 - Quarterly Review of Biology 80 (1):93-95.
    About a British Academy collection of papers on Bayes' famous theorem.
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  5.  82
    Bayes's Theorem.Ellery Eells - 2004 - Mind 113 (451):591-596.
  6. Bayes's Theorem.Miller David - 2002
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  7. Bayes's Theorem.A. P. Dawid - 2002
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  8.  41
    Bayes's Theorem.Branden Fitelson - unknown
    This is a high quality, concise collection of articles on the foundations of probability and statistics. Its editor, Richard Swinburne, has collected five papers by contemporary leaders in the field, written a pretty thorough and even-handed introductory essay, and placed a very clean and accessible version of Reverend Thomas Bayes’s famous essay (“An Essay Towards the Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances”) at the end, as an Appendix (with a brief historical introduction by the noted statistician G.A. (...)
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  9.  51
    Bayes's Theorem and Reliability: A Reply to Levin.David Sherry - 2005 - Informal Logic 25 (2):167-177.
  10.  49
    Bayes's theorem (proceedings of the british academy, vol. 113), edited by Richard Swinburne, oxford university press, 2002, 160 pages. [REVIEW]Paul Anand - 2005 - Economics and Philosophy 21 (1):139-142.
  11.  29
    Bayes’s Theorem: Proceedings of the British Academy, vol. 113.Alan R. Rhoda - 2005 - International Philosophical Quarterly 45 (2):269-270.
  12.  10
    Bayes’s Theorem: Proceedings of the British Academy, vol. 113. [REVIEW]Alan R. Rhoda - 2005 - International Philosophical Quarterly 45 (2):269-270.
  13.  25
    Baye's theorem.Ronald Aylmer Fisher - 1926 - The Eugenics Review 18 (1):32.
  14. Introduction to Bayes's Theorem.Richard Swinburne - 2002 - In Bayes’s Theorem. Oxford University Press.
    This is an introduction to a collected volume. It distinguishes between evidential, statistical, and physical probability, and between objective and subjective understandings of evidential probability, in the use of Bayes’s theorem. If Bayes’s theorem is to be used to assess an objective evidential probability, a priori criteria--mainly the criterion of simplicity--are required to determine prior probability. The five main contributors to the volume discuss the use of Bayes’s theorem to assess the evidential probability of (...)
     
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  15.  53
    A Misuse of Bayes's Theorem.Michael Levin - 1999 - Informal Logic 19 (1).
    In this paper I identify a fallacy. The fallacy is worth noting for practical and theoretical reasons. First, the rampant occurrences ofthis fallacy-especially at moments calling for careful thought-indicate that it is more pernicious to clear thinking than many of those found in standard logic texts. Second, the fallacy stands apart from most others in that it contains multiple kinds oflogical error (i.e., fallacious and non-fallacious logical errors) that are themselves committed in abnormal ways, and thus it presents a two-tiered (...)
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  16. Propensities may satisfy Bayes's theorem.David Miller - 2002 - In Bayes's Theorem. pp. 111-116.
     
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  17.  50
    Hume's knowledge of Bayes's theorem.David Raynor - 1980 - Philosophical Studies 38 (1):105 - 106.
  18.  71
    Two Cheers for Bayes's Theorem.Tim McGrew - 1995 - Analysis 55 (2):123 - 125.
  19. No one knows the date or the hour: An unorthodox application of rev. Bayes's theorem.Paul Bartha & Christopher Hitchcock - 1999 - Philosophy of Science 66 (3):353.
    Carter and Leslie (1996) have argued, using Bayes's theorem, that our being alive now supports the hypothesis of an early 'Doomsday'. Unlike some critics (Eckhardt 1997), we accept their argument in part: given that we exist, our existence now indeed favors 'Doom sooner' over 'Doom later'. The very fact of our existence, however, favors 'Doom later'. In simple cases, a hypothetical approach to the problem of 'old evidence' shows that these two effects cancel out: our existence now yields no (...)
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  20.  9
    Hypothesis testing and theory evaluation at the boundaries: Surprising insights from Bayes's theorem.David Trafimow - 2003 - Psychological Review 110 (3):526-535.
  21.  56
    Beth's theorem and deflationism — reply to Bays.Jeffrey Ketland - 2009 - Mind 118 (472):1075-1079.
    Is the restricted, consistent, version of the T-scheme sufficient for an ‘implicit definition’ of truth? In a sense, the answer is yes (Haack 1978 , Quine 1953 ). Section 4 of Ketland 1999 mentions this but gives a result saying that the T-scheme does not implicitly define truth in the stronger sense relevant for Beth’s Definability Theorem. This insinuates that the T-scheme fares worse than the compositional truth theory as an implicit definition. However, the insinuation is mistaken. For, as (...)
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  22.  91
    Bell's theorem and Bayes' theorem.A. J. M. Garrett - 1990 - Foundations of Physics 20 (12):1475-1512.
    Bell's theorem is expounded as an analysis in Bayesian probabilistic inference. Assume that the result of a spin measurement on a spin-1/2 particle is governed by a variable internal to the particle (local, “hidden”), and examine pairs of particles having zero combined angular momentum so that their internal variables are correlated: knowing something about the internal variable of one tells us something about that of the other. By measuring the spin of one particle, we infer something about its internal (...)
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  23. " Bell's theorem and Bayes' theorem," Found Phys. 20, 1475-1512 (1990).A. J. M. Garrett - 1991 - Foundations of Physics 21 (6).
  24.  15
    Review of Richard Swinburne (ed.), Bayes's Theorem[REVIEW]Branden Fitelson - 2003 - Notre Dame Philosophical Reviews 2003 (11).
  25. Beth's theorem and deflationism.Timothy Bays - 2009 - Mind 118 (472):1061-1073.
    In 1999, Jeffrey Ketland published a paper which posed a series of technical problems for deflationary theories of truth. Ketland argued that deflationism is incompatible with standard mathematical formalizations of truth, and he claimed that alternate deflationary formalizations are unable to explain some central uses of the truth predicate in mathematics. He also used Beth’s definability theorem to argue that, contrary to deflationists’ claims, the T-schema cannot provide an ‘implicit definition’ of truth. In this article, I want to challenge (...)
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  26. Bayes' Theorem.Richard Swinburne - 2004 - Revue Philosophique de la France Et de l'Etranger 194 (2):250-251.
    Richard Swinburne: Introduction Elliott Sober: Bayesianism - its scopes and limits Colin Howson: Bayesianism in Statistics A P Dawid: Bayes's Theorem and Weighing Evidence by Juries John Earman: Bayes, Hume, Price, and Miracles David Miller: Propensities May Satisfy Bayes's Theorem 'An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances' by Thomas Bayes, presented to the Royal Society by Richard Price. Preceded by a historical introduction by G A Barnard.
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  27.  43
    Bays, Steiner, and Wittgenstein’s “Notorious” Paragraph about the Gödel Theorem.Hilary Putnam - 2006 - Journal of Philosophy 103 (2):101-110.
  28.  81
    Bays, Steiner, and Wittgenstein’s “Notorious” Paragraph about the Gödel Theorem.Juliet Floyd & Hilary Putnam - 2006 - Journal of Philosophy 103 (2):101-110.
  29. Bayes' theorem.James Joyce - 2008 - Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy.
    Bayes' Theorem is a simple mathematical formula used for calculating conditional probabilities. It figures prominently in subjectivist or Bayesian approaches to epistemology, statistics, and inductive logic. Subjectivists, who maintain that rational belief is governed by the laws of probability, lean heavily on conditional probabilities in their theories of evidence and their models of empirical learning. Bayes' Theorem is central to these enterprises both because it simplifies the calculation of conditional probabilities and because it clarifies significant features of subjectivist (...)
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  30. Nature, Science, Bayes 'Theorem, and the Whole of Reality‖.Moorad Alexanian - manuscript
    A fundamental problem in science is how to make logical inferences from scientific data. Mere data does not suffice since additional information is necessary to select a domain of models or hypotheses and thus determine the likelihood of each model or hypothesis. Thomas Bayes’ Theorem relates the data and prior information to posterior probabilities associated with differing models or hypotheses and thus is useful in identifying the roles played by the known data and the assumed prior information when making (...)
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  31.  84
    Bayes and Bust: Simplicity as a Problem for a Probabilist’s Approach to Confirmation. [REVIEW]Malcolm R. Forster - 1995 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 46 (3):399-424.
    The central problem with Bayesian philosophy of science is that it cannot take account of the relevance of simplicity and unification to confirmation, induction, and scientific inference. The standard Bayesian folklore about factoring simplicity into the priors, and convergence theorems as a way of grounding their objectivity are some of the myths that Earman's book does not address adequately. 1Review of John Earman: Bayes or Bust?, Cambridge, MA. MIT Press, 1992, £33.75cloth.
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  32.  57
    Skolem's Paradox.Timothy Bays - 2009 - In Edward N. Zalta (ed.), Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy.
    Skolem's Paradox involves a seeming conflict between two theorems from classical logic. The Löwenheim Skolem theorem says that if a first order theory has infinite models, then it has models whose domains are only countable. Cantor's theorem says that some sets are uncountable. Skolem's Paradox arises when we notice that the basic principles of Cantorian set theory—i.e., the very principles used to prove Cantor's theorem on the existence of uncountable sets—can themselves be formulated as a collection of (...)
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  33.  76
    Reflections on Skolem's Paradox.Timothy Bays - 2000 - Dissertation, University of California, Los Angeles
    The Lowenheim-Skolem theorems say that if a first-order theory has infinite models, then it has models which are only countably infinite. Cantor's theorem says that some sets are uncountable. Together, these theorems induce a puzzle known as Skolem's Paradox: the very axioms of set theory which prove the existence of uncountable sets can be satisfied by a merely countable model. ;This dissertation examines Skolem's Paradox from three perspectives. After a brief introduction, chapters two and three examine several formulations of (...)
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  34.  6
    Confirmation of Standards of Proof through Bayes Theorem.Mirko Pečarič - 2020 - Archiv Fuer Rechts Und Sozialphilosophie 106 (4):532-553.
    Legal reasoning on the requirements and application of law has been studied for centuries, but in this subject area the legal profession maintains predominantly the same stance it did in the time of the Ancient Greeks. There is a gap between the standards of proof, one which has been always demonstrated by percentages and in terms of the evaluation of these standards by percentages by mathematical or statistical methods. One method to fill the gap is Bayes theorem that describes (...)
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  35.  49
    The Appraisal of Theories: Kuhn Meets Bayes.Wesley C. Salmon - 1990 - PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1990:325 - 332.
    This paper claims that adoption of Bayes's theorem as the schema for the appraisal of scientific theories can greatly reduce the distance between Kuhnians and logical empiricists. It is argued that plausibility considerations, which Kuhn considered outside of the logic of science, can be construed as prior probabilities, which play an indispensable role in the logic of science. Problems concerning likelihoods, especially the likelihood on the "catchall," are also considered. Severe difficulties concerning the significance of this probability arise in (...)
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  36. On Floyd and Putnam on Wittgenstein on Gödel.Timothy Bays - 2004 - Journal of Philosophy 101 (4):197 - 210.
    odel’s theorem than he has often been credited with. Substantively, they find in Wittgenstein’s remarks “a philosophical claim of great interest,” and they argue that, when this claim is properly assessed, it helps to vindicate some of Wittgenstein’s broader views on G¨.
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  37.  62
    Bayes, Hume, Price, and Miracles.John Earman - 2002 - In Richard Swinburne (ed.), Bayes’s Theorem. Oxford University Press. pp. 91--110.
    This chapter discusses the Bayesian analysis of miracles. It is set in the context of the eighteenth-century debate on miracles. The discussion is focused on the probable response of Thomas Bayes to David Hume's celebrated argument against miracles. The chapter presents the claim that the criticisms Richard Price made against Hume's argument against miracles were largely solid.
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  38. Gwiazda on the Bayesian Argument for God.Richard Swinburne - 2011 - Philosophia 39 (2):393-396.
    Jeremy Gwiazda made two criticisms of my formulation in terms of Bayes’s theorem of my probabilistic argument for the existence of God. The first criticism depends on his assumption that I claim that the intrinsic probabilities of all propositions depend almost entirely on their simplicity; however, my claim is that that holds only insofar as those propositions are explanatory hypotheses. The second criticism depends on a claim that the intrinsic probabilities of exclusive and exhaustive explanatory hypotheses of a (...)
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  39. The curve fitting problem: A bayesian rejoinder.Prasanta S. Bandyopadhyay & Robert J. Boik - 1999 - Philosophy of Science 66 (3):402.
    In the curve fitting problem two conflicting desiderata, simplicity and goodness-of-fit pull in opposite directions. To solve this problem, two proposals, the first one based on Bayes's theorem criterion (BTC) and the second one advocated by Forster and Sober based on Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) are discussed. We show that AIC, which is frequentist in spirit, is logically equivalent to BTC, provided that a suitable choice of priors is made. We evaluate the charges against Bayesianism and contend that AIC (...)
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  40.  76
    An Analysis of Ensembles that are Both Pre- and Post-Selected.Abner Shimony - 2005 - Foundations of Physics 35 (2):215-232.
    The idea of ensembles which are both pre- and post-selected was introduced by Aharonov, Bergmann, and Lebowitz and developed by Aharonov and his school. To derive formulae for the probabilities of outcomes of a measurement performed on such an ensemble at a time intermediate between pre-selection and post-selection, the latter group introduces a two-vector formulation of quantum mechanics, one vector propagating in the forward direction in time and one in the backward direction. The formulae which they obtain by this radical (...)
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  41.  65
    Bayesianism, Analogy, and Hume's Dialogues concerning Natural Religion.Sally Ferguson - 2002 - Hume Studies 28 (1):113-130.
    Analyses of the argument from design in Hume's Dialogues concerning Natural Religion have generally treated that argument as an example of reasoning by analogy. In this paper I examine whether it is in accord with Hume's thinking about the argument to subsume the version of it given in the Dialogues under the model of probabilistic reasoning offered by Bayes's theorem. Wesley Salmon attempted this project in 1978. In related projects, David Owen as well as Philip Dawid and Donald Gillies (...)
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  42. Religion and science: A new look at Hume's dialogues.Wesley C. Salmon - 1978 - Philosophical Studies 33 (2):143 - 176.
    This article deals with the design argument for the existence of God as it is discussed in hume's "dialogues concerning natural religion". Using bayes's theorem in the probability calculus--Which hume almost certainly could not have known as such--It shows how the various arguments advanced by philo and cleanthes fit neatly into a comprehensive logical structure. The conclusion is drawn that, Not only does the empirical evidence fail to support the theistic hypothesis, But also renders the atheistic hypothesis quite highly (...)
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  43. Bell’s Theorem: Two Neglected Solutions.Louis Vervoort - 2013 - Foundations of Physics 43 (6):769-791.
    Bell’s theorem admits several interpretations or ‘solutions’, the standard interpretation being ‘indeterminism’, a next one ‘nonlocality’. In this article two further solutions are investigated, termed here ‘superdeterminism’ and ‘supercorrelation’. The former is especially interesting for philosophical reasons, if only because it is always rejected on the basis of extra-physical arguments. The latter, supercorrelation, will be studied here by investigating model systems that can mimic it, namely spin lattices. It is shown that in these systems the Bell inequality can be (...)
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  44.  31
    The Inductive Argument from Evil.Bruce R. Reichenbach - 1980 - American Philosophical Quarterly 17 (3):221 - 227.
    First I employ Bayes's Theorem to give some precision to the atheologian's thesis that it is improbable that God exists given the amount of evil in the world (E). Two arguments result from this: (1) E disconfirms God's existence, and (2) E tends to disconfirm God's existence. Secondly, I evaluate these inductive arguments, suggesting against (1) that the atheologian has abstracted from and hence failed to consider the total evidence, and against (2) that the atheologian's evidence adduced to support (...)
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  45. A new formulation of the principle of indifference.Rodolfo de Cristofaro - 2008 - Synthese 163 (3):329-339.
    The idea of a probabilistic logic of inductive inference based on some form of the principle of indifference has always retained a powerful appeal. However, up to now all modifications of the principle failed. In this paper, a new formulation of such a principle is provided that avoids generating paradoxes and inconsistencies. Because of these results, the thesis that probabilities cannot be logical quantities, determined in an objective way through some form of the principle of indifference, is no longer supportable. (...)
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  46. Bell’s Theorem, Quantum Probabilities, and Superdeterminism.Eddy Keming Chen - 2021 - In Eleanor Knox & Alastair Wilson (eds.), The Routledge Companion to Philosophy of Physics. Routledge.
    In this short survey article, I discuss Bell’s theorem and some strategies that attempt to avoid the conclusion of non-locality. I focus on two that intersect with the philosophy of probability: (1) quantum probabilities and (2) superdeterminism. The issues they raised not only apply to a wide class of no-go theorems about quantum mechanics but are also of general philosophical interest.
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  47. On the evidence of testimony for miracles: A bayesian interpretation of David Hume's analysis.Jordan Howard Sobel - 1987 - Philosophical Quarterly 37 (147):166-186.
    A BAYESIAN ARTICULATION OF HUME’S VIEWS IS OFFERED BASED ON A FORM OF THE BAYES-LAPLACE THEOREM THAT IS SUPERFICIALLY LIKE A FORMULA OF CONDORCET’S. INFINITESIMAL PROBABILITIES ARE EMPLOYED FOR MIRACLES AGAINST WHICH THERE ARE ’PROOFS’ THAT ARE NOT OPPOSED BY ’PROOFS’. OBJECTIONS MADE BY RICHARD PRICE ARE DEALT WITH, AND RECENT EXPERIMENTS CONDUCTED BY AMOS TVERSKY AND DANIEL KAHNEMAN ARE CONSIDERED IN WHICH PERSONS TEND TO DISCOUNT PRIOR IMPROBABILITIES WHEN ASSESSING REPORTS OF WITNESSES.
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  48. Arrow's theorem in judgment aggregation.Franz Dietrich & Christian List - 2007 - Social Choice and Welfare 29 (1):19-33.
    In response to recent work on the aggregation of individual judgments on logically connected propositions into collective judgments, it is often asked whether judgment aggregation is a special case of Arrowian preference aggregation. We argue for the converse claim. After proving two impossibility theorems on judgment aggregation (using "systematicity" and "independence" conditions, respectively), we construct an embedding of preference aggregation into judgment aggregation and prove Arrow’s theorem (stated for strict preferences) as a corollary of our second result. Although we (...)
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  49. Godel's Theorem in Focus.S. G. Shanker (ed.) - 1987 - Routledge.
    A layman's guide to the mechanics of Gödel's proof together with a lucid discussion of the issues which it raises. Includes an essay discussing the significance of Gödel's work in the light of Wittgenstein's criticisms.
     
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  50.  61
    Bell’s Theorem and the Issue of Determinism and Indeterminism.Michael Esfeld - 2015 - Foundations of Physics 45 (5):471-482.
    The paper considers the claim that quantum theories with a deterministic dynamics of objects in ordinary space-time, such as Bohmian mechanics, contradict the assumption that the measurement settings can be freely chosen in the EPR experiment. That assumption is one of the premises of Bell’s theorem. I first argue that only a premise to the effect that what determines the choice of the measurement settings is independent of what determines the past state of the measured system is needed for (...)
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