Results for 'Auditor Probability Judgments'

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  1. Theory and decison.Richard G. Brody, John M. Coulter, Alireza Daneshfar, Auditor Probability Judgments, Discounting Unspecified Possibilities, Paula Corcho, José Luis Ferreira & Generalized Externality Games - 2003 - Theory and Decision 54:375-376.
     
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  2.  44
    Auditor Probability Judgments: Discounting Unspecified Possibilities.Richard G. Brody, John M. Coulter & Alireza Daneshfar - 2003 - Theory and Decision 54 (2):85-104.
    Tversky and Koehler's support theory attempts to explain why probability judgments are affected by the manner in which formally similar events are described. Support theory suggests that as the explicitness of a description increases, an event will be judged to be more likely. In the present experiment, experienced decision-makers from large, international accounting firms were given case-specific information about an audit client and asked to provide a series of judgments regarding the perceived likelihood of events. Unpacking a (...)
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  3.  37
    The Impact of Ethical Development and Cultural Constructs on Auditor Judgments: A Study of Auditors in Taiwan.Cynthia Jeffrey, William Dilla & Nancy Weatherholt - 2004 - Business Ethics Quarterly 14 (3):553-579.
    Abstract:This research examines in a collectivist culture the influence of cognitive moral development, attitudes toward rule-directed behavior, and the perceived importance of codes of conduct and professional standards on auditor judgments about ethical dilemmas. Taiwanese audit professionals were asked to respond to two ethical dilemmas. The first dilemma concerns a situation in which the auditor is asked to acquiesce to a controller’s request to conceal an irregularity. The probability that the auditor’s acquiescence is discovered (i.e., (...)
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  4.  31
    The Impact of Ethical Development and Cultural Constructs on Auditor Judgments: A Study of Auditors in Taiwan.Cynthia Jeffrey, William Dilla & Nancy Weatherholt - 2004 - Business Ethics Quarterly 14 (3):553-579.
    Abstract:This research examines in a collectivist culture the influence of cognitive moral development, attitudes toward rule-directed behavior, and the perceived importance of codes of conduct and professional standards on auditor judgments about ethical dilemmas. Taiwanese audit professionals were asked to respond to two ethical dilemmas. The first dilemma concerns a situation in which the auditor is asked to acquiesce to a controller’s request to conceal an irregularity. The probability that the auditor’s acquiescence is discovered (i.e., (...)
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  5.  12
    The Impact of Ethical Development and Cultural Constructs on Auditor Judgments: A Study of Auditors in Taiwan.Cynthia Jeffrey, William Dilla & Nancy Weatherholt - 2004 - Business Ethics Quarterly 14 (3):553-579.
    Abstract:This research examines in a collectivist culture the influence of cognitive moral development, attitudes toward rule-directed behavior, and the perceived importance of codes of conduct and professional standards on auditor judgments about ethical dilemmas. Taiwanese audit professionals were asked to respond to two ethical dilemmas. The first dilemma concerns a situation in which the auditor is asked to acquiesce to a controller’s request to conceal an irregularity. The probability that the auditor’s acquiescence is discovered (i.e., (...)
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  6.  6
    Age‐Related Differences in Moral Judgment: The Role of Probability Judgments.Francesco Margoni, Janet Geipel, Constantinos Hadjichristidis, Richard Bakiaj & Luca Surian - 2023 - Cognitive Science 47 (9):e13345.
    Research suggests that moral evaluations change during adulthood. Older adults (75+) tend to judge accidentally harmful acts more severely than younger adults do, and this age‐related difference is in part due to the greater negligence older adults attribute to the accidental harmdoers. Across two studies (N = 254), we find support for this claim and report the novel discovery that older adults’ increased attribution of negligence, in turn, is associated with a higher perceived likelihood that the accident would occur. We (...)
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  7.  11
    Probability judgments under ambiguity and conflict.Michael Smithson - 2015 - Frontiers in Psychology 6.
  8.  25
    The role of ANS acuity and numeracy for the calibration and the coherence of subjective probability judgments.Anders Winman, Peter Juslin, Marcus Lindskog, Håkan Nilsson & Neda Kerimi - 2014 - Frontiers in Psychology 5:97227.
    The purpose of the study was to investigate how numeracy and acuity of the approximate number system (ANS) relate to the calibration and coherence of probability judgments. Based on the literature on number cognition, a first hypothesis was that those with lower numeracy would maintain a less linear use of the probability scale, contributing to overconfidence and nonlinear calibration curves. A second hypothesis was that also poorer acuity of the ANS would be associated with overconfidence and non-linearity. (...)
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  9.  61
    Probability judgments of agency: Rational or irrational?Thomas Schmidt & Vera C. Heumüller - 2010 - Consciousness and Cognition 19 (1):1-11.
    We studied how people attribute action outcomes to their own actions under conditions of uncertainty. Participants chose between left and right keypresses to produce an action effect , while a computer player made a simultaneous keypress decision. In each trial, a random generator determined which of the players controlled the action effect at varying probabilities, and participants then judged which player had produced it. Participants’ effect control ranged from 20% to 80%, varied blockwise, and they could use trial-by-trial feedback to (...)
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  10.  20
    The Bayesian sampler: Generic Bayesian inference causes incoherence in human probability judgments.Jian-Qiao Zhu, Adam N. Sanborn & Nick Chater - 2020 - Psychological Review 127 (5):719-748.
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  11.  68
    Evaluating second-order probability judgments with strictly proper scoring rules.Kathleen M. Whitcomb & P. George Benson - 1996 - Theory and Decision 41 (2):165-178.
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  12.  31
    The autocorrelated Bayesian sampler: A rational process for probability judgments, estimates, confidence intervals, choices, confidence judgments, and response times.Jian-Qiao Zhu, Joakim Sundh, Jake Spicer, Nick Chater & Adam N. Sanborn - 2024 - Psychological Review 131 (2):456-493.
  13.  10
    When alternative hypotheses shape your beliefs: Context effects in probability judgments.Xiaohong Cai & Timothy J. Pleskac - 2023 - Cognition 231 (C):105306.
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  14. The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments.Maya Bar-Hillel - 1980 - Acta Psychologica 44 (3):211-233.
     
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  15.  12
    Errors, fast and slow: an analysis of response times in probability judgments.Jonas Ludwig, Fabian K. Ahrens & Anja Achtziger - 2020 - Thinking and Reasoning 26 (4):627-639.
    Probabilistic reasoning is heavily investigated in decision research. Violations of probability theory have been demonstrated numerously, for instance, the tendency to overestimate the joint probab...
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  16.  8
    Clarifying the relationship between coherence and accuracy in probability judgments.Jian-Qiao Zhu, Philip W. S. Newall, Joakim Sundh, Nick Chater & Adam N. Sanborn - 2022 - Cognition 223 (C):105022.
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  17.  24
    Neurocognitive processes underlying heuristic and normative probability judgments.Linus Andersson, Johan Eriksson, Sara Stillesjö, Peter Juslin, Lars Nyberg & Linnea Karlsson Wirebring - 2020 - Cognition 196 (C):104153.
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  18. Experiments on nonmonotonic reasoning. The coherence of human probability judgments.Niki Pfeifer & G. D. Kleiter - 2002 - In H. Leitgeb & G. Schurz (eds.), Pre-Proceedings of the 1 s T Salzburg Workshop on Paradigms of Cognition.
    Nonmonotonic reasoning is often claimed to mimic human common sense reasoning. Only a few studies, though, investigated this claim empirically. In the present paper four psychological experiments are reported, that investigate three rules of system p, namely the and, the left logical equivalence, and the or rule. The actual inferences of the subjects are compared with the coherent normative upper and lower probability bounds derived from a non-infinitesimal probability semantics of system p. We found a relatively good agreement (...)
     
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  19. Unphilosophical Probability and Judgments Arising from Sympathy.Louis E. Loeb - 2002 - In Stability and justification in Hume's Treatise. New York: Oxford University Press.
    Attributing the stability‐based theory to Hume explains his equation of degree of belief with degree of evidence in his treatment of philosophical probability. In his discussion of the fourth kind of unphilosophical probability, Hume uncovers contradictions that arise from accidental or rash generalizations; his response, that stability can be restored by appeal to higher‐order generalizations or general rules, facilitates his analysis of causation. Hume's first three kinds of unphilosophical probability involve variation in degrees of confidence that parallels (...)
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  20.  10
    Do Internal Auditors Make Consistent Ethical Judgments in English and Chinese in Reporting Wrongdoing?Peipei Pan & Chris Patel - forthcoming - Journal of Business Ethics:1-21.
    We contribute to the literature on intentions to report wrongdoing by examining whether Chinese internal auditors make consistent judgments when an ethical dilemma is presented in English and when the same dilemma is presented in Chinese. We invoke cultural frame switching theory, and our findings, which are based on a randomized experiment using between-subjects and within-subject mixed design, support the hypothesis that Chinese internal auditors are more likely to report wrongdoing when the ethical dilemma is presented in English than (...)
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  21.  34
    It can't happen to me… or can it? Conditional base rates affect subjective probability judgments.Carla C. Chandler, Leilani Greening, Leslie J. Robison & Laura Stoppelbein - 1999 - Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied 5 (4):361.
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  22. Processing time evidence for a default-interventionist model of probability judgments.Ellen Gillard, Wim Van Dooren, Walter Schaeken & Lieven Verschaffel - 2009 - In N. A. Taatgen & H. van Rijn (eds.), Proceedings of the 31st Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society.
     
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  23.  22
    Implications of real-world distributions and the conversation game for studies of human probability judgments.John C. Thomas - 2007 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 30 (3):282-283.
    Subjects in experiments use real-life strategies that differ significantly from those assumed by experimenters. First, true randomness is rare in both natural and constructed environments. Second, communication follows conventions which depend on the game-theoretic aspects of situations. Third, in the common rhetorical stance of storytelling, people do not tell about the representative but about unusual, exceptional, and rare cases.
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  24.  16
    Likelihood judgments and sequential effects in a two-choice probability learning situation.Norman H. Anderson & Richard E. Whalen - 1960 - Journal of Experimental Psychology 60 (2):111.
  25.  72
    The Strength of an Accounting Firm’s Ethical Environment and the Quality of Auditors’ Judgments.Nonna Martinov-Bennie & Gary Pflugrath - 2009 - Journal of Business Ethics 87 (2):237 - 253.
    This study examines the impact of the strength of an accounting firm’s ethical environment (presence and reinforcement vis-à-vis the presence of a code of conduct) on the quality of auditor judgment, across different levels of audit expertise. Using a 2 × 2 full factorial ‹between subjects’ experimental design, with audit managers and audit seniors, the impact of different levels of strength of the ethical environment on auditor judgments was assessed with a realistic audit scenario, requiring participants to (...)
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  26.  16
    The Strength of an Accounting Firm’s Ethical Environment and the Quality of Auditors’ Judgments.Nonna Martinov-Bennie & Gary Pflugrath - 2009 - Journal of Business Ethics 87 (2):237-253.
    This study examines the impact of the strength of an accounting firm's ethical environment on the quality of auditor judgment, across different levels of audit expertise. Using a 2 × 2 full factorial 'between subjects' experimental design, with audit managers and audit seniors, the impact of different levels of strength of the ethical environment on auditor judgments was assessed with a realistic audit scenario, requiring participants to make judgments in respect of an inventory writedown. Based on (...)
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  27.  57
    Epistemic Judgments are Insensitive to Probabilities.Adam Michael Bricker - 2020 - Metaphilosophy 51 (4):499-521.
    Multiple epistemological programs make use of intuitive judgments pertaining to an individual’s ability to gain knowledge from exclusively probabilistic/statistical information. This paper argues that these judgments likely form without deference to such information, instead being a function of the degree to which having knowledge is representative of an agent. Thus, these judgments fit the pattern of formation via a representativeness heuristic, like that famously described by Kahneman and Tversky to explain similar probabilistic judgments. Given this broad (...)
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  28.  42
    Judgmental Probability and Objective Chance.Richard Jeffrey - 1986 - Erkenntnis 24 (1):5 - 16.
  29.  16
    Deviance probabilities: Determination of judgmental bias within Kendall’s coefficient of concordance data.L. W. Buckalew & W. H. Pearson - 1982 - Bulletin of the Psychonomic Society 20 (4):187-189.
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  30. On the provenance of judgments of conditional probability.Jiaying Zhao, Anuj Shah & Daniel Osherson - 2009 - Cognition 113 (1):26-36.
  31.  19
    Narcissism Dynamics and Auditor Skepticism.Steven E. Kaszak, Eric N. Johnson, Philip M. J. Reckers & Alan Reinstein - forthcoming - Journal of Business Ethics:1-18.
    The process by which auditors consider fraud risk in assessing management’s motivation and character remains under-addressed. This is problematic given the rising tide of narcissism, as well as recent research documenting that both self- and other-perceptions of narcissism influence an array of judgments. While a skeptical attitude is fundamental to the auditor’s gatekeeper role, it remains unclear how auditors form and act on perceptions of client narcissism. With a large sample of experienced accountants as participants, we leverage insights (...)
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  32.  41
    Auditors' willingness to advocate client-preferred accounting principles.William E. Shafer, Alice A. Ketchand & Roselyn E. Morris - 2004 - Journal of Business Ethics 52 (3):213-227.
    This paper argues that independent auditors have lost sight of their obligation to be truly impartial, and have increasingly adopted an attitude of client advocacy. We argue that auditors have a professional obligation to go beyond merely passing judgment on whether client accounting methods are acceptable under GAAP, and to judge whether the principles adopted are the most appropriate under the circumstances. We then review recent evidence which suggests that auditors have abandoned this objective in favor of advocating client-preferred principles. (...)
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  33.  51
    In search of good probability assessors: an experimental comparison of elicitation rules for confidence judgments.Guillaume Hollard, Sébastien Massoni & Jean-Christophe Vergnaud - 2016 - Theory and Decision 80 (3):363-387.
    In this paper, we use an experimental design to compare the performance of elicitation rules for subjective beliefs. Contrary to previous works in which elicited beliefs are compared to an objective benchmark, we consider a purely subjective belief framework. The performance of different elicitation rules is assessed according to the accuracy of stated beliefs in predicting success. We measure this accuracy using two main factors: calibration and discrimination. For each of them, we propose two statistical indexes and we compare the (...)
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  34.  35
    Similarity, plausibility, and judgments of probability.E. Smith - 1993 - Cognition 49 (1-2):67-96.
  35.  48
    Judging the Probability of Hypotheses Versus the Impact of Evidence: Which Form of Inductive Inference Is More Accurate and Time‐Consistent?Katya Tentori, Nick Chater & Vincenzo Crupi - 2016 - Cognitive Science 40 (3):758-778.
    Inductive reasoning requires exploiting links between evidence and hypotheses. This can be done focusing either on the posterior probability of the hypothesis when updated on the new evidence or on the impact of the new evidence on the credibility of the hypothesis. But are these two cognitive representations equally reliable? This study investigates this question by comparing probability and impact judgments on the same experimental materials. The results indicate that impact judgments are more consistent in time (...)
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  36. Probability and the Art of Judgment.Richard C. Jeffrey - 1992 - New York: Cambridge University Press.
    Richard Jeffrey is beyond dispute one of the most distinguished and influential philosophers working in the field of decision theory and the theory of knowledge. His work is distinctive in showing the interplay of epistemological concerns with probability and utility theory. Not only has he made use of standard probabilistic and decision theoretic tools to clarify concepts of evidential support and informed choice, he has also proposed significant modifications of the standard Bayesian position in order that it provide a (...)
     
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  37.  53
    Intuitive Probabilities and the Limitation of Moral Imagination.Arseny A. Ryazanov, Jonathan Knutzen, Samuel C. Rickless, Nicholas J. S. Christenfeld & Dana Kay Nelkin - 2018 - Cognitive Science 42 (S1):38-68.
    There is a vast literature that seeks to uncover features underlying moral judgment by eliciting reactions to hypothetical scenarios such as trolley problems. These thought experiments assume that participants accept the outcomes stipulated in the scenarios. Across seven studies, we demonstrate that intuition overrides stipulated outcomes even when participants are explicitly told that an action will result in a particular outcome. Participants instead substitute their own estimates of the probability of outcomes for stipulated outcomes, and these probability estimates (...)
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  38. Actor-observer differences in judgmental probability forecasting of control response efficacy.N. Harvey & P. Ayton - 1990 - Bulletin of the Psychonomic Society 28 (6):523-523.
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  39.  66
    Probability and Opinion: A Study in the Medieval Presuppositions of Post-Medieval Theories of Probability.Edmund F. Byrne (ed.) - 1968 - The Hague: Martinus Nijhoff.
    Recognizing that probability (the Greek doxa) was understood in pre-modern theories as the polar opposite of certainty (episteme), the author of this study elaborates the forms which these polar opposites have taken in some twentieth century writers and then, in greater detail, in the writings of Thomas Aquinas. Profiting from subsequent more sophisticated theories of probability, he examines how Aquinas’s judgments about everything from God to gossip depend on schematizations of the polarity between the systematic and the (...)
  40.  6
    The Riskification of Internal Auditors’ Ethical Deliberation: An Emerging Third Logic Between Norms and Values?Marion Brivot, Mélanie Roussy & Yves Gendron - forthcoming - Journal of Business Ethics:1-22.
    What ethical challenges do internal auditors (IAs) encounter in their professional role, and how do they navigate these hurdles, especially when weaving risks into their ethical judgments? Anchored in philosophical concepts distinguishing norms from values, and the notion that risk is intrinsically moral, this research delves into interviews of 33 Canadian public sector IAs across various government strata. This primary data are enriched by insights from archival documents and an ethics training session attended by 11 internal audit executives. Our (...)
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  41.  52
    Probability logic, logical probability, and inductive support.Isaac Levi - 2010 - Synthese 172 (1):97-118.
    This paper seeks to defend the following conclusions: The program advanced by Carnap and other necessarians for probability logic has little to recommend it except for one important point. Credal probability judgments ought to be adapted to changes in evidence or states of full belief in a principled manner in conformity with the inquirer’s confirmational commitments—except when the inquirer has good reason to modify his or her confirmational commitment. Probability logic ought to spell out the constraints (...)
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  42.  25
    The Joint Effect of Ethical Idealism and Trait Skepticism on Auditors’ Fraud Detection.Inez G. F. Verwey & Stephen K. Asare - 2021 - Journal of Business Ethics 176 (2):381-395.
    Although regulators have identified ethical lapses as a key factor contributing to auditors’ failure to detect their clients’ fraudulent financial reporting, research using ethical theory to examine auditors’ fraud detection remains limited. We provide evidence on the joint effect of ethical idealism and trait skepticism on auditors’ fraud judgments. Ethical idealism reflects an individual’s concern for the welfare of others while trait skepticism reflects an individual’s disposition to validating a proposition. Forsyth theorizes that there is an association between ethical (...)
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  43. Generics, frequency adverbs, and probability.Ariel Cohen - 1999 - Linguistics and Philosophy 22 (3):221-253.
    Generics and frequency statements are puzzling phenomena: they are lawlike, yet contingent. They may be true even in the absence of any supporting instances, and extending the size of their domain does not change their truth conditions. Generics and frequency statements are parametric on time, but not on possible worlds; they cannot be applied to temporary generalizations, and yet are contingent. These constructions require a regular distribution of events along the time axis. Truth judgments of generics vary considerably across (...)
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  44. Do Judgments Screen Evidence?Brian Weatherson - manuscript
    Suppose a rational agent S has some evidence E that bears on p, and on that basis makes a judgment about p. For simplicity, we’ll normally assume that she judges that p, though we’re also interested in cases where the agent makes other judgments, such as that p is probable, or that p is well-supported by the evidence. We’ll also assume, again for simplicity, that the agent knows that E is the basis for her judgment. Finally, we’ll assume that (...)
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  45.  89
    The probability of inconsistencies in complex collective decisions.Christian List - 2005 - Social Choice and Welfare 24 (1):3-32.
    Many groups make decisions over multiple interconnected propositions. The “doctrinal paradox” or “discursive dilemma” shows that propositionwise majority voting can generate inconsistent collective sets of judgments, even when individual sets of judgments are all consistent. I develop a simple model for determining the probability of the paradox, given various assumptions about the probability distribution of individual sets of judgments, including impartial culture and impartial anonymous culture assumptions. I prove several convergence results, identifying when the (...) of the paradox converges to 1, and when it converges to 0, as the number of individuals increases. Drawing on the Condorcet jury theorem and work by Bovens and Rabinowicz , I use the model to assess the “truth-tracking” performance of two decision procedures, the premise- and conclusion-based procedures. I compare the present results with existing results on the probability of Condorcet’s paradox. I suggest that the doctrinal paradox is likely to occur under plausible conditions. (shrink)
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  46. probability And Risk Assessment: Taking A Chance On 'terrorism'.James Roper - 2002 - Florida Philosophical Review 2 (2):23-44.
    Beginning with an analysis of the "reluctant gambler problem"—in which the notion of guiding one's life by probability seems to conflict with the preferences of rational people—we draw a distinction between rule and act probabilism. Arguing that humans are rule probabilists by default, we show that reluctant gamblers can be viewed as rule probabilists. If so viewed, their reluctance to gamble is consistent with their rational use of probability judgments to guide their lives.The distinction between rule and (...)
     
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  47.  30
    The Influence of Initial Beliefs on Judgments of Probability.Erica C. Yu & David A. Lagnado - 2012 - Frontiers in Psychology 3.
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  48.  10
    Moral judgments under uncertainty: risk, ambiguity and commission bias.Fei Song, Yiyun Shou, Felix S. H. Yeung & Joel Olney - 2023 - Current Psychology.
    Previous research on moral dilemmas has mainly focused on decisions made under conditions of probabilistic certainty. We investigated the impact of uncertainty on the preference for action (killing one individual to save five people) and inaction (saving one but allowing five people to die) in moral dilemmas. We reported two experimental studies that varied the framing (gain vs loss), levels of risk (probability of gain and loss) and levels of ambiguity (imprecise probability information) in the choice to save (...)
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  49.  25
    The Effect of Evidential Impact on Perceptual Probabilistic Judgments.Marta Mangiarulo, Stefania Pighin, Luca Polonio & Katya Tentori - 2021 - Cognitive Science 45 (1):e12919.
    In a series of three behavioral experiments, we found a systematic distortion of probability judgments concerning elementary visual stimuli. Participants were briefly shown a set of figures that had two features (e.g., a geometric shape and a color) with two possible values each (e.g., triangle or circle and black or white). A figure was then drawn, and participants were informed about the value of one of its features (e.g., that the figure was a “circle”) and had to predict (...)
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  50.  13
    Effects of Personal Values on Auditor’s Ethical Decisions: A Comparison of Pakistani and Turkish Professional Auditors.Semra Karacaer, Raheel Gohar, Mehmet Aygün & Cem Sayin - 2009 - Journal of Business Ethics 88 (1):53-64.
    The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of personal values on auditor's ethical decisionmaking in two countries, namely, Pakistan and Turkey. This study is the first that empirically addresses the role of values in the ethical decision-making processes of Pakistani and Turkish Professional auditors. This study surveys a random sample of these countries' professional certified auditors to assess their value preferences and reactions to an ethical dilemma. This study measures practicing auditors' value preferences by using the (...)
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