The credibility of miracles

Philosophical Studies 82 (3):359 - 375 (1996)
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Abstract

Hume’s famous argument against the credibility of testimony about miracles invokes two premises: 1) The reliability of the witness (the extent to which he is informed and truthful) must be compared with the intrinsic probability of the miracle. 2) The initial probability of a miracle is always small enough to outweigh the improbability that the testimony is false (even when the witness is assumed to be reliable). I defend the first premise of the argument, showing that Hume’s argument can be applied to purported observations of miracles, as well. I then show that Hume failed to provide an adequate support for his second premise. A more cogent defence can be provided for a weaker premise. The resultant argument has, consequently, a less sweeping conclusion than Hume’s

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Ruth Weintraub
Tel Aviv University

Citations of this work

Miracles, historical testimonies, and probabilities.Aviezer Tucker - 2005 - History and Theory 44 (3):373–390.
Miracles.Michael Levine - 2008 - Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy.
The Hume Literature, 1996.William E. Morris - 1997 - Hume Studies 23 (2):345-355.

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On the psychology of prediction.Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky - 1973 - Psychological Review 80 (4):237-251.
Can human irrationality be experimentally demonstrated?L. Jonathan Cohen - 1981 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 4 (3):317-370.
The reliability of sense perception.William P. Alston - 1993 - Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.

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