A bayesian paradox

British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 52 (1):51-66 (2001)
  Copy   BIBTEX

Abstract

A seemingly plausible application of Bayesian decision-theoretic reasoning to determine one's rational degrees of belief yields a paradoxical conclusion: one ought to jettison one's intermediate credences in favour of more extreme (opinionated) ones. I discuss various attempts to solve the paradox, those involving the acceptance of the paradoxical conclusion, and those which attempt to block its derivation.

Links

PhilArchive



    Upload a copy of this work     Papers currently archived: 91,122

External links

Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server

Through your library

Similar books and articles

The paradox of confirmation.Branden Fitelson - 2006 - Philosophy Compass 1 (1):95–113.
Hempel's Raven paradox: A lacuna in the standard bayesian solution.Peter B. M. Vranas - 2004 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 55 (3):545-560.
Bayesian probability.Patrick Maher - 2010 - Synthese 172 (1):119 - 127.
Evidence.Victor DiFate - 2007 - Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy.
The Wason task(s) and the paradox of confirmation.Branden Fitelson - 2010 - Philosophical Perspectives 24 (1):207-241.

Analytics

Added to PP
2009-01-28

Downloads
24 (#591,250)

6 months
3 (#643,273)

Historical graph of downloads
How can I increase my downloads?

Author's Profile

Ruth Weintraub
Tel Aviv University

References found in this work

How the laws of physics lie.Nancy Cartwright - 1983 - New York: Oxford University Press.
The scientific image.C. Van Fraassen Bas - 1980 - New York: Oxford University Press.
Gambling with truth.Isaac Levi - 1967 - Cambridge,: MIT Press.
Logic of Statistical Inference.Ian Hacking - 1965 - Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.

View all 15 references / Add more references