Philosophy of Science 86 (4):696-718 (2019)

Olav Vassend
Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences
Scientists often study hypotheses that they know to be false. This creates an interpretive problem for Bayesians because the probability assigned to a hypothesis is typically interpreted as the probability that the hypothesis is true. I argue that solving the interpretive problem requires coming up with a new semantics for Bayesian inference. I present and contrast two new semantic frameworks, and I argue that both of them support the claim that there is pervasive pragmatic encroachment on whether a given Bayesian probability assignment is rational.
Keywords No keywords specified (fix it)
Categories (categorize this paper)
Reprint years 2019
DOI 10.1086/704978
Edit this record
Mark as duplicate
Export citation
Find it on Scholar
Request removal from index
Revision history

Download options

PhilArchive copy

Upload a copy of this paper     Check publisher's policy     Papers currently archived: 70,039
Through your library

References found in this work BETA

Probabilistic Knowledge.Sarah Moss - 2018 - Oxford University Press.
Conjectures and Refutations.K. Popper - 1963 - Les Etudes Philosophiques 21 (3):431-434.
Counterfactuals.David Lewis - 1973 - Foundations of Language 13 (1):145-151.
Belief, Credence, and Pragmatic Encroachment.Jacob Ross & Mark Schroeder - 2014 - Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 88 (2):259-288.
Counterfactuals.David Lewis - 1974 - Tijdschrift Voor Filosofie 36 (3):602-605.

View all 35 references / Add more references

Citations of this work BETA

Conditional Degree of Belief and Bayesian Inference.Jan Sprenger - 2020 - Philosophy of Science 87 (2):319-335.
Justifying the Norms of Inductive Inference.Olav Benjamin Vassend - 2022 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 73 (1):135-160.

Add more citations

Similar books and articles

Should Physicians Be Bayesian Agents?M. Wayne Cooper - 1992 - Theoretical Medicine and Bioethics 13 (4).
When Can Non‐Commutative Statistical Inference Be Bayesian?Miklós Rédei - 1992 - International Studies in the Philosophy of Science 6 (2):129-132.
Bayesian Probability.Patrick Maher - 2010 - Synthese 172 (1):119 - 127.
Visualizing Probabilistic Proof.Enrique Guerra-Pujol - 2014 - Washington University Jurisprudence Review 7 (1):39-75.
Bayesian Inference and its Application to Meta-Analysis of Epidemiologic Data.Pamela Anne Trudeau - 1991 - Dissertation, The University of Texas Health Sciences Center at Houston School of Public Health


Added to PP index

Total views
36 ( #315,736 of 2,505,610 )

Recent downloads (6 months)
1 ( #416,705 of 2,505,610 )

How can I increase my downloads?


My notes