Philosophy of Science 83 (5):1110-1121 (2016)

Authors
Roman Frigg
London School of Economics
Casey Helgeson
Pennsylvania State University
Abstract
Climate change adaptation is largely a local matter, and adaptation planning can benefit from local climate change projections. Such projections are typically generated by accepting climate model outputs in a relatively uncritical way. We argue, based on the IPCC’s treatment of model outputs from the CMIP5 ensemble, that this approach is unwarranted and that subjective expert judgment should play a central role in the provision of local climate change projections intended to support decision-making.
Keywords Climate Models  Model Projections  Expertise  Structured Expert Elicitation  Climate Change Adaptation
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Reprint years 2016
DOI 10.1086/687942
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References found in this work BETA

Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science.Roger M. Cooke (ed.) - 1991 - Oxford, England: Oxford University Press.

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Citations of this work BETA

Initial-Condition Dependence and Initial-Condition Uncertainty in Climate Science.Charlotte Werndl - 2019 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 70 (4):953-976.
Model spread and progress in climate modelling.Julie Jebeile & Anouk Barberousse - 2021 - European Journal for Philosophy of Science 11 (3):1-19.
Climate modelling and structural stability.Vincent Lam - 2021 - European Journal for Philosophy of Science 11 (4):1-14.

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