Dynamic probability and the problem of initial conditions

Synthese 199 (5-6):14617-14639 (2021)
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Abstract

Dynamic approaches to understanding probability in the non-fundamental sciences turn on certain properties of physical processes that are apt to produce “probabilistically patterned” outcomes. The dynamic properties on their own, however, seem not quite sufficient to explain the patterns; in addition, some sort of assumption about initial conditions must be made, an assumption that itself typically takes a probabilistic form. How should such a posit be understood? That is the problem of initial conditions. Reichenbach, in his doctoral dissertation, floated a Kantian solution to the problem. In this paper I provide a Reichenbachian alternative.

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Michael Strevens
New York University

Citations of this work

Objectivity and the Method of Arbitrary Functions.Chloé de Canson - 2022 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 73 (3):663-684.

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References found in this work

Depth: An Account of Scientific Explanation.Michael Strevens - 2008 - Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.
The theory of probability.Hans Reichenbach - 1949 - Berkeley,: University of California Press.
Science and method.Henri Poincaré - 1914 - New York]: Dover Publications. Edited by Francis Maitland.
Science and method.Henri Poincaré - 1914 - Mineola, N.Y.: Dover Publications. Edited by Francis Maitland.

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