Model tuning in engineering: uncovering the logic

Journal of Strain Analysis for Engineering Design 51 (1):63-71 (2015)
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Abstract

In engineering, as in other scientific fields, researchers seek to confirm their models with real-world data. It is common practice to assess models in terms of the distance between the model outputs and the corresponding experimental observations. An important question that arises is whether the model should then be ‘tuned’, in the sense of estimating the values of free parameters to get a better fit with the data, and furthermore whether the tuned model can be confirmed with the same data used to tune it. This dual use of data is often disparagingly referred to as ‘double-counting’. Here, we analyse these issues, with reference to selected research articles in engineering. Our example studies illustrate more and less controversial practices of model tuning and double-counting, both of which, we argue, can be shown to be legitimate within a Bayesian framework. The question nonetheless remains as to whether the implied scientific assumptions in each case are apt from the engineering point of view

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Author Profiles

Charlotte Sophie Werndl
London School of Economics
Katie Steele
Australian National University

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References found in this work

Scientific reasoning: the Bayesian approach.Peter Urbach & Colin Howson - 1993 - Chicago: Open Court. Edited by Peter Urbach.
Climate models, calibration, and confirmation.Charlotte Werndl & Katie Steele - 2013 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 64 (3):609-635.
Accommodation, Prediction and Bayesian Confirmation Theory.Colin Howson - 1988 - PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1988:381 - 392.

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