Early stopping of RCTs: two potential issues for error statistics

Synthese 192 (4):1089-1116 (2015)
  Copy   BIBTEX


Error statistics is an important methodological view in philosophy of statistics and philosophy of science that can be applied to scientific experiments such as clinical trials. In this paper, I raise two potential issues for ES when it comes to guiding, and explaining early stopping of randomized controlled trials : ES provides limited guidance in cases of early unfavorable trends due to the possibility of trend reversal; ES is silent on how to prospectively control error rates in experiments requiring multiple interim analyses. The method of conditional power, together with a rationing principle for RCTs, can assist ES in addressing such issues



    Upload a copy of this work     Papers currently archived: 84,049

External links

Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server

Through your library

Similar books and articles

Modelling and simulating early stopping of RCTs: a case study of early stop due to harm.Roger Stanev - 2012 - Journal of Experimental and Theoretical Artificial Intelligence 24 (4):513-526.
Bayesian versus frequentist clinical trials.David Teira - 2011 - In Gifford Fred (ed.), Philosophy of Medicine. Amsterdam: Elsevier. pp. 255-297.
Statistics‐based research – a pig in a poke?James Penston - 2011 - Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice 17 (5):862-867.
A problem for achieving informed choice.Adam La Caze - 2008 - Theoretical Medicine and Bioethics 29 (4):255-265.
Bayesian statistics in medicine: A 25 year review.Deborah Ashby - 2006 - Statistics in Medicine 25:3589-3631.
Bias and Conditioning in Sequential medical trials.Cecilia Nardini & Jan Sprenger - 2013 - Philosophy of Science 80 (5):1053-1064.


Added to PP

92 (#151,741)

6 months
1 (#510,366)

Historical graph of downloads
How can I increase my downloads?

Author's Profile

Roger Stanev
University of Ottawa

References found in this work

Logic of Statistical Inference.Ian Hacking - 1965 - Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.
Error and the growth of experimental knowledge.Deborah Mayo - 1996 - International Studies in the Philosophy of Science 15 (1):455-459.
Severe testing as a basic concept in a neyman–pearson philosophy of induction.Deborah G. Mayo & Aris Spanos - 2006 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 57 (2):323-357.

View all 13 references / Add more references