The Bounded Strength of Weak Expectations

Mind 120 (479):819-832 (2011)
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Abstract

The rational price of the Pasadena and Altadena games, introduced by Nover and Hájek (2004 ), has been the subject of considerable discussion. Easwaran (2008 ) has suggested that weak expectations — the value to which the average payoffs converge in probability — can give the rational price of such games. We argue against the normative force of weak expectations in the standard framework. Furthermore, we propose to replace this framework by a bounded utility perspective: this shift renders the problem more realistic and accounts for the role of weak expectations. In particular, we demonstrate that in a bounded utility framework, all agents, even if they have different value functions and disagree on the price of an individual game, will finally agree on the rational price of a repeated, averaged game. Thus, we explain the intuitive appeal of weak expectations, while avoiding both trivialization of the original paradox and the drawbacks of previous approaches.

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Author Profiles

Jan Sprenger
University of Turin
Remco Heesen
London School of Economics

Citations of this work

Infinite Prospects.Jeffrey Sanford Russell & Yoaav Isaacs - 2021 - Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 103 (1):178-198.
In defense of a moderate skeptical invariantism.Davide Fassio - 2021 - In Christos Kyriacou & Kevin Wallbridge (eds.), Skeptical Invariantism Reconsidered. Routledge Series in Epistemology. pp. 129-153.
Making Do Without Expectations.Paul F. A. Bartha - 2016 - Mind 125 (499):799-827.

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References found in this work

Vexing expectations.Harris Nover & Alan Hájek - 2004 - Mind 113 (450):237-249.
Relative Expectation Theory.Mark Colyvan - 2008 - Journal of Philosophy 105 (1):37-44.
Strong and weak expectations.Kenny Easwaran - 2008 - Mind 117 (467):633-641.
No expectations.Mark Colyvan - 2006 - Mind 115 (459):695-702.

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