Making Confident Decisions with Model Ensembles

Philosophy of Science 88 (3):439-460 (2021)
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Abstract

Many policy decisions take input from collections of scientific models. Such decisions face significant and often poorly understood uncertainty. We rework the so-called confidence approach to tackle decision-making under severe uncertainty with multiple models, and we illustrate the approach with a case study: insurance pricing using hurricane models. The confidence approach has important consequences for this case and offers a powerful framework for a wide class of problems. We end by discussing different ways in which model ensembles can feed information into the approach, appropriate to different collections of models.

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Author Profiles

Richard Bradley
London School of Economics
Roman Frigg
London School of Economics
Joe Roussos
Institute for Futures Studies

Citations of this work

Extrapolating from experiments, confidently.Donal Khosrowi - 2023 - European Journal for Philosophy of Science 13 (2):1-28.
Interpreting the Probabilistic Language in IPCC Reports.Corey Dethier - 2023 - Ergo: An Open Access Journal of Philosophy 10.

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References found in this work

A treatise on probability.John Maynard Keynes - 1921 - Mineola, N.Y.: Dover Publications.
Decision Theory with a Human Face.Richard Bradley - 2017 - Cambridge University Press.
In defence of the value free ideal.Gregor Betz - 2013 - European Journal for Philosophy of Science 3 (2):207-220.
A treatise on probability.J. Keynes - 1924 - Revue de Métaphysique et de Morale 31 (1):11-12.

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