Inherent Complexity: A Problem for Statistical Model Evaluation

Philosophy of Science 84 (5):797-809 (2017)
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Abstract

This article investigates a problem for statistical model evaluation, in particular for curve fitting: by employing a different family of curves we can fit any scatter plot almost perfectly at apparently minor cost in terms of model complexity. The problem is resolved by an appeal to prior probabilities. This leads to some general lessons about how to approach model evaluation.

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Jan-Willem Romeijn
University of Groningen

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