Luck Theory: A Philosophical Introduction to the Mathematics of Luck

Springer (2021)
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Abstract

This book is an original—the first-ever treatment of the mathematics of Luck. Setting out from the principle that luck can be measured by the gap between reasonable expectation and eventual realization, the book develops step-by-step a mathematical theory that accommodates the entire range of our pre-systematic understanding of the way in which luck functions in human affairs. In so moving from explanatory exposition to mathematical treatment, the book provides a clear and accessible account of the way in which luck assessment enters into the calculations of rational decision theory.

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ISBN(s)

3030637794   9783030637798   3030637824   9783030637804

DOI

10.1007/978-3-030-63780-4
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Chapters

Outcome Luck Assessment and the Luck Equation

Luck—be it good or bad—enters when an uncertain, unforeseen outcome is beneficial to someone. Its assessment is a matter of the extent to which unforeseeable developments impinge on people’s interests. The calculus of luck fuses the calculus of probability with value theory to provide a means for as... see more

Luck in Success/Failure Situations

It is sensible to treat both win-or-lose competitions and find-or-miss searches conjointly because their conceptual structure is uniform from a theoretical point of view. The contrast between success and failure is critical on both sides alike.

Chancy Outcome Situations

The common expression speaks not improperly of “dumb luck,” for what happens to people “by luck” cannot be foreseen by them. One may be fortunate through the realization of a securely predictable boon, but it is not going to be a fruit of mere luck. The role of chance in the world has been deliberat... see more

Basic Luck Theorems

A great many characteristic features of luck are readily established as demonstrable theorems subject to the understanding that the luck of chancy situations can be assessed quantitatively. This can be done on basis of the Basic Luck Equation to the effect that the quantity of an outcome’s, luck is ... see more

Variant Approaches to Luck

The standard approach to assessing luck will proceed via the amount-measure of the Basic Luck Equation λ = Y − E. However, some variant perspectives bring other salient features of luck to light.

Some Illustrative Examples

Luck has a double aspect as facilitating an outcome’s realization, and as consequent on the outcome realized. Thus as to , the burglar was lucky that the watchman was asleep thus greatly easing his work. And as to he was lucky that the house he targeted unbeknownst to him happened to contain a large... see more

Managing Luck

Luck divides the results of uncertain-outcome situations for a given individual into two main groups, the favorable and the unfavorable, the lucky and the unlucky . But regrettably, the proper answer to the question: What can I do to improve my luck within a given stochastic situation is: Nothing. C... see more

Luck and Risk

We speak of risk of capture in warfare or crime, of losing in games or fighting, of accident in transport, and so on. Risk is always a matter of potential loss or negativity. To be sure there is also the risk of “losing out”—in not realizing a positivity of some sort—but this too is in the end a sor... see more

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Nicholas Rescher
University of Pittsburgh

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