On Mental Probability Logic
Dissertation, Department of Psychology, University of Salzburg (
2006)
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Abstract
Mental probability logic is a psychological competence theory about how
humans interpret and reason about common-sense conditionals. Probability
logic is proposed as an appropriate standard of reference for evaluating the rationality
of human inferences. Common-sense conditionals are interpreted as
“high” conditional probabilities, P(B|A) > .5. Probability logical accounts
of nonmonotonic reasoning and inference rules like the modus ponens are
explored. Categorical syllogisms with comparative and quantitative quantifiers
are investigated. A series of eight experiments on human probabilistic
reasoning in the framework of the basic nonmonotonic system p corroborate
the psychological plausibility of the proposed approach.