Extrapolating human probability judgment

Theory and Decision 36 (2):103-129 (1994)
  Copy   BIBTEX


We advance a model of human probability judgment and apply it to the design of an extrapolation algorithm. Such an algorithm examines a person's judgment about the likelihood of various statements and is then able to predict the same person's judgments about new statements. The algorithm is tested against judgments produced by thirty undergraduates asked to assign probabilities to statements about mammals.



    Upload a copy of this work     Papers currently archived: 91,271

External links

Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server

Through your library

Similar books and articles

Imprecision and indeterminacy in probability judgment.Isaac Levi - 1985 - Philosophy of Science 52 (3):390-409.
Indefinite probability judgment: A reply to Levi.Richard Jeffrey - 1987 - Philosophy of Science 54 (4):586-591.
Toward a general theory of human judgment.Justus Buchler - 1951 - New York: Dover Publications.
Towards a mental probability logic.Niki Pfeifer & G. D. Kleiter - 2005 - Psychologica Belgica 45 (1):71--99.
Clinical judgment and the rationality of the human sciences.Eugenie Gatens-Robinson - 1986 - Journal of Medicine and Philosophy 11 (2):167-178.


Added to PP

118 (#147,885)

6 months
37 (#95,704)

Historical graph of downloads
How can I increase my downloads?