The strength of de Finetti’s coherence theorem

Synthese 198 (12):11713-11724 (2020)
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Abstract

I show that de Finetti’s coherence theorem is equivalent to the Hahn-Banach theorem and discuss some consequences of this result. First, the result unites two aspects of de Finetti’s thought in a nice way: a corollary of the result is that the coherence theorem implies the existence of a fair countable lottery, which de Finetti appealed to in his arguments against countable additivity. Another corollary of the result is the existence of sets that are not Lebesgue measurable. I offer a subjectivist interpretation of this corollary that is concordant with de Finetti’s views. I conclude by pointing out that my result shows that there is a sense in which de Finetti’s theory of subjective probability is necessarily nonconstructive. This raises questions about whether the coherence theorem can underwrite a legitimate theory of rational belief.

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Michael Nielsen
University of Sydney

References found in this work

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Truth and probability.Frank Ramsey - 2010 - In Antony Eagle (ed.), Philosophy of Probability: Contemporary Readings. New York: Routledge. pp. 52-94.
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A nonpragmatic vindication of probabilism.James M. Joyce - 1998 - Philosophy of Science 65 (4):575-603.

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