Propensities may satisfy Bayes's theorem

In Bayes's Theorem. pp. 111-116 (2002)
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Why propensities cannot be probabilities, Paul Humphreys proposed accounts of probability are usually required to satisfy the standard axioms of the probability calculus. Because of the fundamentally causal nature of propensities, they cannot do this, primarily because in-version formulas such as the multiplication axiom and bayes' theorem do.Ruth Garrett Millikan - 1985 - Philosophical Review 94 (4).
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Trait fitness is not a propensity, but fitness variation is.Elliott Sober - 2013 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part C: Studies in History and Philosophy of Biological and Biomedical Sciences 44 (3):336-341.
Propensities and probabilities.Nuel Belnap - 2007 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 38 (3):593-625.

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