Revealing the Beauty behind the Sleeping Beauty Problem

Abstract

A large number of essays address the Sleeping Beauty problem, which undermines the validity of Bayesian inference and Bas Van Fraassen's 'Reflection Principle'. In this study a straightforward analysis of the problem based on probability theory is presented. The key difference from previous works is that apart from the random experiment imposed by the problem's description, a different one is also considered, in order to negate the confusion on the involved conditional probabilities. The results of the analysis indicate that no inconsistency takes place, whereas both Bayesian inference and 'Reflection Principle' are valid.

Links

PhilArchive

External links

Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server

Through your library

  • Only published works are available at libraries.

Similar books and articles

Analytics

Added to PP
2014-09-22

Downloads
670 (#23,889)

6 months
184 (#14,440)

Historical graph of downloads
How can I increase my downloads?

Author's Profile

Citations of this work

No citations found.

Add more citations

References found in this work

Belief and the Will.Bas C. van Fraassen - 1984 - Journal of Philosophy 81 (5):235-256.
Sleeping beauty: Reply to Elga.David Lewis - 2001 - Analysis 61 (3):171–76.

View all 23 references / Add more references