Instruction in information structuring improves Bayesian judgment in intelligence analysts

Frontiers in Psychology 6:137593 (2015)
  Copy   BIBTEX

Abstract

An experiment was conducted to test the effectiveness of brief instruction in information structuring (i.e., representing and integrating information) for improving the coherence of probability judgments and binary choices among intelligence analysts. Forty-three analysts were presented with comparable sets of Bayesian judgment problems before and immediately after instruction. After instruction, analysts’ probability judgments were more coherent (i.e., more additive and compliant with Bayes theorem). Instruction also improved the coherence of binary choices regarding category membership: after instruction, subjects were more likely to invariably choose the category to which they assigned the higher probability of a target’s membership. The research provides a rare example of evidence-based validation of effectiveness in instruction to improve the statistical assessment skills of intelligence analysts. Such instruction could also be used to improve the assessment quality of other types of experts who are required to integrate statistical information or make probabilistic assessments.

Links

PhilArchive



    Upload a copy of this work     Papers currently archived: 92,227

External links

Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server

Through your library

Similar books and articles

Bayesian and Non-Bayesian Evidential Updating.Henry E. Kyburg - 1987 - Artificial Intelligence 31 (3):271--294.
Learning Conditional Information.Igor Douven - 2012 - Mind and Language 27 (3):239-263.
Bayesian group belief.Franz Dietrich - 2010 - Social Choice and Welfare 35 (4):595-626.
Bayesian Epistemology.Luc Bovens & Stephan Hartmann - 2003 - Oxford: Oxford University Press. Edited by Stephan Hartmann.
The structuring of legal knowledge in Lois.Wim Peters, Maria-Teresa Sagri & Daniela Tiscornia - 2007 - Artificial Intelligence and Law 15 (2):117-135.
Bayesianism and language change.Jon Williamson - 2003 - Journal of Logic, Language and Information 12 (1):53-97.

Analytics

Added to PP
2016-06-30

Downloads
20 (#771,402)

6 months
2 (#1,206,802)

Historical graph of downloads
How can I increase my downloads?