Abstract
ABSTRACT. Probability and statistics play an important role in
contemporary -philosophy of causality. They are viewed as glasses
through which we can see or detect causal relations. However, they
may sometimes act as blinding glasses, as I will argue in this paper.
In the 19th century, Francis Galton tried to statistically analyze
hereditary phenomena. Although he was a far better statistician
than Gregor Mendel, his biological theory turned out to be
less fruitful. This was no sheer accident. His knowledge of statistics
generated two explananda (unknown to Mendel) which in turn
generated constraints for any theory of heredity. These constraints
misguided Galtons search for the causal mechanism of inheritance.
This is not just. an interesting case for philosophers and historians
of ·science. Notwithstanding the progress made by statitics, Galtons
problem is still relevant today. In the final section, I briefly explore
the implications for statistical techniques such as structural equation
modelling.