Abstract

The use of the capacity method of rare events analysis [1,2] for the historical events analysis is demonstrated using the example of the Russian-Turkish wars. Modeling rare events as events of overflow of a certain capacity, for example, a cup of patience, it turns out to recover from these rare events the resulting function of the difference between incoming and outgoing disturbance flows. For different variants of representing the effect of an event, different functions were obtained, which were given an interesting interpretation, as example the speed of preparation for the next war.