Philosophy of Science 85 (1):126-143 (2018)

Molly Kao
University of Western Ontario
In this article, I evaluate Hartmann and Fitelson’s solution to the Bayesian problem of old evidence by applying it to an early stage in the development of quantum theory. I argue that this case study suggests that whether old evidence is anomalous affects its support for a hypothesis. I introduce and defend two formal assumptions to accommodate this idea. This analysis not only explicates an important historical example, but it also shows that the given solution captures the intuitive importance of “surprising” evidence that has previously been problematic in the context of old evidence.
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DOI 10.1086/694810
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References found in this work BETA

Measuring Confirmation.David Christensen - 1999 - Journal of Philosophy 96 (9):437-461.
Bayesianism With A Human Face.Richard C. Jeffrey - 1983 - In John Earman (ed.), Testing Scientific Theories. University of Minnesota Press. pp. 133--156.
On the Constitution of Atoms and Molecules, Part I.Niels Bohr - 1913 - Philosophical Magazine 26:1--25.
The 'Old Evidence' Problem.Colin Howson - 1991 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 42 (4):547-555.

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Citations of this work BETA

On the Origins of Old Evidence.Benjamin Eva & Stephan Hartmann - 2020 - Australasian Journal of Philosophy 98 (3):481-494.

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