Synthese 191 (5):1-24 (2014)

Authors
Colin Howson
Last affiliation: London School of Economics
Abstract
In this paper I argue that de Finetti provided compelling reasons for rejecting countable additivity. It is ironical therefore that the main argument advanced by Bayesians against following his recommendation is based on the consistency criterion, coherence, he himself developed. I will show that this argument is mistaken. Nevertheless, there remain some counter-intuitive consequences of rejecting countable additivity, and one in particular has all the appearances of a full-blown paradox. I will end by arguing that in fact it is no paradox, and that what it shows is that conditionalisation, often claimed to be integral to the Bayesian canon, has to be rejected as a general rule in a finitely additive environment
Keywords Finite additivity  Infinite lotteries  Coherence  Conditionalisation   de Finetti
Categories (categorize this paper)
Reprint years 2014, 2016
DOI 10.1007/s11229-013-0303-3
Options
Edit this record
Mark as duplicate
Export citation
Find it on Scholar
Request removal from index
Revision history

Download options

PhilArchive copy


Upload a copy of this paper     Check publisher's policy     Papers currently archived: 69,979
Through your library

References found in this work BETA

The Logic of Scientific Discovery.Karl Raimund Popper - 1934 - London, England: Routledge.
Philosophical Papers.David Kellogg Lewis - 1983 - Oxford University Press.
The Logic of Scientific Discovery.K. Popper - 1959 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 10 (37):55-57.

View all 46 references / Add more references

Citations of this work BETA

Chance and the Continuum Hypothesis.Daniel Hoek - 2021 - Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 103 (3):639-60.
Obligation, Permission, and Bayesian Orgulity.Michael Nielsen & Rush T. Stewart - 2019 - Ergo: An Open Access Journal of Philosophy 6.

View all 18 citations / Add more citations

Similar books and articles

De Finetti, Countable Additivity, Consistency and Coherence.Colin Howson - 2008 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 59 (1):1-23.
Countable Additivity and the de Finetti Lottery.Paul Bartha - 2004 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 55 (2):301-321.
Why Countable Additivity?Kenny Easwaran - 2013 - Thought: A Journal of Philosophy 2 (1):53-61.
Countable Additivity and Subjective Probability.Jon Williamson - 1999 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 50 (3):401-416.
Fair Infinite Lotteries.Sylvia Wenmackers & Leon Horsten - 2013 - Synthese 190 (1):37-61.
Realism, Convergence, and Additivity.Cory Juhl & Kevin T. Kelly - 1994 - PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1994:181 - 189.
Possibility and Probability.Isaac Levi - 1989 - Erkenntnis 31 (2-3):365--86.

Analytics

Added to PP index
2013-12-01

Total views
101 ( #115,666 of 2,504,877 )

Recent downloads (6 months)
2 ( #277,627 of 2,504,877 )

How can I increase my downloads?

Downloads

My notes