Journal of Medical Ethics 41 (7):559-562 (2015)

Authors
Spencer Hey
Harvard University
Abstract
All major research ethics policies assert that the ethical review of clinical trial protocols should include a systematic assessment of risks and benefits. But despite this policy, protocols do not typically contain explicit probability statements about the likely risks or benefits involved in the proposed research. In this essay, I articulate a range of ethical and epistemic advantages that explicit forecasting would offer to the health research enterprise. I then consider how some particular confidence levels may come into conflict with the principles of ethical research.
Keywords prediction  clinical trials  equipoise
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Reprint years 2015
DOI 10.1136/medethics-2013-101868
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References found in this work BETA

Heuristic Decision Making.Gerd Gigerenzer & Wolfgang Gaissmaier - 2011 - Annual Review of Psychology 62:451-482.

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Citations of this work BETA

Priority, Prediction and the Ethical Research Enterprise.Spencer Phillips Hey - 2017 - Journal of Medical Ethics 43 (12):812-813.

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