Climatic Change 149:517-525 (2018)
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| Abstract |
Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) employ an evolving framework of calibrated language for assessing and communicating degrees of certainty in findings. A persistent challenge for this framework has been ambiguity in the relationship between multiple degree-of-certainty metrics. We aim to clarify the relationship between the likelihood and confidence metrics used in the Fifth Assessment Report (2013), with benefits for mathematical consistency among multiple findings and for usability in downstream modeling and decision analysis. We discuss how our proposal meshes with current and proposed practice in IPCC uncertainty assessment.
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| Keywords | environmental assessment uncertainty expert judgment science for policy |
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| Reprint years | 2018 |
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References found in this work BETA
A Treatise on Probability.J. M. Keynes - 1989 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 40 (2):219-222.
Expert Judgment for Climate Change Adaptation.Erica Thompson, Roman Frigg & Casey Helgeson - 2016 - Philosophy of Science 83 (5):1110-1121.
Climate Change Assessments: Confidence, Probability, and Decision.Richard Bradley, Casey Helgeson & Brian Hill - 2017 - Philosophy of Science 84 (3):500–522.
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Citations of this work BETA
Tough Enough? Robust Satisficing as a Decision Norm for Long-Term Policy Analysis.Andreas L. Mogensen & David Thorstad - 2022 - Synthese 200 (1):1-26.
Conceptualizing Uncertainty: The IPCC, Model Robustness and the Weight of Evidence.Margherita Harris - 2021 - Dissertation, London School of Economics
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