Abstract

The probability ranking conclusion is an extension of the absolute form evaluation conclusion. Firstly, the random simulation evaluation model is introduced; then, the general idea of converting the traditional evaluation method to the random simulation evaluation model is analyzed; on this basis, based on the rule of “further ensuring the stability of the ranking chain on the basis of increasing the possibility of the ranking chain,” two methods of solving the probability ranking conclusion are given. Based on the rule of “further guaranteeing the stability of the ranking chain on the basis of improving the likelihood of the ranking chain,” two methods are given to solve the likelihood conclusion. This paper argues that this absolute form of conclusion hinders the approximation of the theory to the essence of the actual problem and is an important reason for the problem of “non-consistency of multi-evaluation conclusions.” To address this problem, a stochastic simulation-based comprehensive evaluation solution algorithm based on the idea of “Monte Carlo simulation” is proposed, and the corresponding ranking method is investigated, which is characterized by generating evaluation conclusions with probability information, and thus has more advantages than the absolute conclusion form in terms of problem interpretability. The method is characterized by the generation of evaluation conclusions with probabilistic information and thus has more advantages than the absolute conclusion form in terms of problem interpretation. Because of the independence of the stochastic simulation solution method, it is applied to the “bottom-up” evaluation model as an example, and a novel autonomous evaluation method is constructed. Finally, the application of the stochastic simulation evaluation model is illustrated by an example and compared with the absolute form evaluation. The evaluation model is an extension of the traditional evaluation model, which can further broaden the practical application of comprehensive evaluation theory.