The Sure Thing Principle Leads to Instability

Philosophical Quarterly (forthcoming)
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Abstract

Orthodox causal decision theory is unstable. Its advice changes as you make up your mind about what you will do. Several have objected to this kind of instability and explored stable alternatives. Here, I'll show that explorers in search of stability must part with a vestige of their homeland. There is no plausible stable decision theory which satisfies Savage's Sure Thing Principle. So those in search of stability must learn to live without it.

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J. Dmitri Gallow
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor (PhD)

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