Epidemiological Evidence: Use at Your ‘Own Risk’?

Philosophy of Science 87 (5):1119-1129 (2020)
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Abstract

What meaning does epidemiological evidence have for the individual? In evidence-based medicine, epidemiological evidence measures the patient’s risk of the outcome or the change in risk due to an intervention. The patient’s risk is commonly understood as an individual probability. The problem of understanding epidemiological evidence and risk thus becomes the challenge of interpreting individual patient probabilities. I argue that the patient’s risk is interpreted ontically, as a propensity. After exploring formidable problems with this interpretation in the medical context, I propose an epistemic reinterpretation of individual patient probabilities as credences. On this view, epidemiological evidence informs medical uncertainty.

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Citations of this work

Epidemics from the Population Perspective.Jonathan Fuller - 2022 - Philosophy of Science 89 (2):232-251.

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References found in this work

An Introduction to Probability and Inductive Logic.Ian Hacking - 2001 - New York: Cambridge University Press.
The Risk GP Model: The Standard Model of Prediction in Medicine.Jonathan Fuller & Luis J. Flores - 2015 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part C: Studies in History and Philosophy of Biological and Biomedical Sciences 54:49-61.
The Risk GP Model: The standard model of prediction in medicine.Jonathan Fuller & Luis J. Flores - 2015 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part C: Studies in History and Philosophy of Biological and Biomedical Sciences 54:49-61.

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