Roman Frigg
London School of Economics
Leon Smith
University of Stellenbosch
In recent publications we have drawn attention to the fact that if the dynamics of a model is structurally unstable, then the presence of structural model error places in-principle limits on the model’s ability to generate decision-relevant probability forecasts. Writing with a varying array of co-authors, Eric Winsberg has now produced at least four publications in which he dismisses our points as unfounded; the most recent of these appeared in this journal. In this paper we respond to the arguments of Winsberg and his co-workers, and we point out that their criticisms fail. We take this as an opportunity to restate and explain our arguments, and to point to fruitful directions for future research.
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DOI 10.1007/s13194-022-00459-9
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References found in this work BETA

Philosophy and Climate Science.Eric Winsberg - 2018 - Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
What Are the New Implications of Chaos for Unpredictability?Charlotte Werndl - 2009 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 60 (1):195-220.
Bayesian Orgulity.Gordon Belot - 2013 - Philosophy of Science 80 (4):483-503.

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