Authors
Roman Frigg
London School of Economics
Abstract
The United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme’s UKCP09 project makes high-resolution projections of the climate out to 2100 by post-processing the outputs of a large-scale global climate model. The aim of this paper is to describe and analyse the methodology used and then urge some caution. Given the acknowledged systematic, shared errors of all current climate models, treating model outputs as decision-relevant projections can be significantly misleading. In extrapolatory situations, such as projections of future climate change, there is little reason to expect that post-processing of model outputs can correct for the consequences of such errors. This casts doubt on our ability, today, to make trustworthy probabilistic projections at high resolution out to the end of the century.
Keywords Climate change  Prediction  Projection  Simulation  Model  Probability  Reliability  Emulation  Systematic error  Decision-making   Structural model error
Categories (categorize this paper)
ISBN(s)
DOI 10.1007/s11229-015-0739-8
Options
Edit this record
Mark as duplicate
Export citation
Find it on Scholar
Request removal from index
Revision history

Download options

PhilArchive copy


Upload a copy of this paper     Check publisher's policy     Papers currently archived: 68,944
Through your library

References found in this work BETA

Values and Uncertainties in the Predictions of Global Climate Models.Eric Winsberg - 2012 - Kennedy Institute of Ethics Journal 22 (2):111-137.
Values and Uncertainties in Climate Prediction, Revisited.Wendy Parker - 2014 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 46:24-30.

View all 12 references / Add more references

Citations of this work BETA

Climate modelling and structural stability.Vincent Lam - 2021 - European Journal for Philosophy of Science 11 (4):1-14.

View all 13 citations / Add more citations

Similar books and articles

Understanding Pluralism in Climate Modeling.Wendy Parker - 2006 - Foundations of Science 11 (4):349-368.
Varieties of Support and Confirmation of Climate Models.Elisabeth A. Lloyd - 2009 - Aristotelian Society Supplementary Volume 83 (1):213-232.
Climate Simulations: Uncertain Projections for an Uncertain World.Rafaela Hillerbrand - 2014 - Journal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 45 (1):17-32.
The Epistemology of Climate Models and Some of its Implications for Climate Science and the Philosophy of Science.Joel Katzav - 2014 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 46 (2):228-238.
Cosmopolitan Justice, Rights, and Global Climate Change.Simon Caney - 2006 - Canadian Journal of Law and Jurisprudence 19 (2).
Disagreement and Responses to Climate Change.Graham Long - 2011 - Environmental Values 20 (4):503-525.
Values and Uncertainties in Climate Prediction, Revisited.Wendy Parker - 2014 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 46:24-30.
Casualties as a Moral Measure of Climate Change.John Nolt - 2015 - Climatic Change 130 (3):347–358.
Predictivism and Old Evidence: A Critical Look at Climate Model Tuning.Mathias Frisch - 2015 - European Journal for Philosophy of Science 5 (2):171-190.

Analytics

Added to PP index
2015-04-25

Total views
305 ( #33,885 of 2,498,142 )

Recent downloads (6 months)
1 ( #427,476 of 2,498,142 )

How can I increase my downloads?

Downloads

My notes